Friday, April 29, 2011

04.29.2011



END OF THE DAY REPORT - Gold went up and silver went down and the silver priced in gold went down lower and the gold to silver ratio went higher. A lot is going on, so to make it easy for me, I am going to put down in point form what is important and what should be covered on the weekend.

-Volume on Silver is massive as is volatility and this should signal either a parabolic up move or an intermediate term top
-Apmex is buying coins for three dollars over spot! Does this signal an intermediate top to you? If so, they probably would wait to buy or at least not give you that much of a premium
-1979 Comparison. It seems holding 150% gain is needed to not break down the comparison. 150% gain on 17.78 is around $42.00
-Price Memory within' the $40.00 range. It moved fast from $40.00 to $50.00.
Stock Market correlation with Silver prices.


GOLD IN A BUBBLE!!! HERE ARE THE SIGNS (LOL)


The signs for the gold bubble are found At this link

1- It has very few industrial uses. The author is correct in stating that the gold has very few industrial reasons which is the largest I reason I see the collapse in the gold to silver ratio to keep accelerating. The author talks big about silver how it is so much better and this is correct, however priced in silver the bubble has already burst on gold. It burst in the fall of 2008 when Gold was $700 and Silver was a little over $8.00 and the ratio is down about tho thirds in this time. When you say the bubble is bursting because it has no industrial (tangible) uses it makes me wonder when the item it is priced in (fiat dollars) has no tangible or industrial uses. I remember on CNBC when Erin Burnett said Gold has value because people believe it has value where Oil (her example used) has value. My response to this is the Fiat dollars have value because believe it does and its unlikely the trend for people believing dollars to have value to remain when debt reaches mass proportions as well as people every day waking up to how money is created

2 - Gold has no dividend yield. - Again I don't know if I should laugh or cry when I read this. The author again is correct in that it does not have a dividend yield. The author states the dividend over time can pay for the stock in itself. There does become a huge challenge however for investors to invest in stocks and meanwhile get out of dollars. When you buy stocks you are investing in dollars using a code that can fluctuate up and down that can either yield you a higher or lower return. This is like a casino game really and the kicker here is that you are forced to make your wager with a financial institution during a time when the banking system is dying.

3 - Gold has no dividend yield. - Same as the last argument for #2 and I don't need to expand on this anymore

4 - The US should start selling its gold to pay down its debt. - The debt can not be repaid based on the mathematical certainty explained so well by Peter Joseph who makes the Zeitgeist series. This was also "a should" kind of deal and I guess giving all the gold to Federal Reserve would be a good thing? As far as I know I don't see the USA selling gold to put against the debt and if they did exchange their gold for payments of the debt, where would that leave the debt? The debt explosion should happen due to awareness of such a case and more people waking up.

5 - Interest rates are at zero and the Fed is printing money - The reason why interest rates close to zero being in existence is a big reason to get out of the dollar into real assets (one being gold). This argument states that at some point they will have to raise interest rates which will thus strengthen the dollar and make gold collapse. Again I don't know if I should laugh or cry at this particular argument. Short term a correction in precious metals is very likely to occur on the increase or interest rates but in reality if this were to happen and rates go higher the economy would crash even harder and raising interest rates does not strengthen the dollar and that is a myth. The only way I know of to strengthen it is to peg the currency to real assets and in order for them to do this the price adjustments would be massive.

6 - This guy can't carry the market forever. - This part states and I quote "John Paulson and George Soros, plus billions of dollars worth of their followers, have plowed $10s of billions into Gold in the past few months. Ok, that type of buying won't last forever and is probably already finished." Speaking of stuff not lasting forever, the ability to keep multi millions of humans clueless to how money is created that guarantees debt to massive levels so many people suffer will also not last forever and as he says in probably already finished makes me feel the same way as it has now lasted over three years in this information on how money is created.

7 - Gold production is rising. - These reasons like gold production rising and the tangible uses are reasons for the supply and demand to mean lower prices. If the dollar was not in a bubble I would agree with this, but again how can you say gold is going lower in fiat debt notes when the amount of fiat debt notes is also rising at a much higher pace.

8 - Gold sentiment is at an all-time bullish high. - Just because something is at an all time high does not mean it can not go further to the upside. Does this mean when the Dow Jones Industrials broke past 1,000 making new all time highs in the 80s that it was time to sell even though it increased well over 10x in around twenty years. Can the sentiment not continue to increase? I say it can and will.

9 - Whenever we see gold sentiment at the levels in the below chart, prices tend to pull back, at least in the short-term. - There is no chart below here and if you want to see it then look at the slide show from the link above, but its funny how they (at least in the short-term.) It's kind of a way to save their butt when they are wrong. This way if it goes down 40 or 60 points they can say it went down in the short tun. I don't think this is a smart way to say markets are going lower using charts. Rather look for indicators like a declining 200 day moving average for the long term people and a declining 50 average for the mid term. When we are talking about bubbles bursting we are not talking about standard corrections.

10 - Whenever we see gold sentiment at the levels in the below chart, prices tend to pull back, at least in the short-term. - Same as the article above and I guess I should quit what im doing with chart reading because I can't understand how by looking at the gold charts it shows a long term top being set. (LOL)

11 - The Oracle is a huge gold bear - The oracle they refer to is that of Warren Buffet and their first sentence they use is "Warren Buffet is not always right" which again makes me laugh. They do say when it comes to Long term that there is nobody right than Buffet. Yes, this is the guy who sold all his silver years ago before the explosion happened (Good job Warren) This decade the Berkshire fund has pretty much doubles and gold on the other hand has only went up about 5x its level from before. Buffet maybe rich with fiat debt notes, but I don't really think he even knows how money is created and the implications fiat money has. Maybe I am wrong on that issue, but if I was then why would he sell his silver?

Thursday, April 28, 2011

04.28.2011



Update 23:27 EST - Considering we are at high volatility over the last few days it is interesting to see that in the last ten hours or so the movements top to bottom are only 66 cents or a shade over one percent. Calm before the storm? What will the storm be? Move to 43 and lower or move to 53 and higher? I think 80%+ likelihood of the storm being upside.


FOUR DAYS LATE!


I was four days late reporting that on Sunday night when the Silver market approached $50.00 per ounce it hit the trend line and bounced off of it. Not one single so called analyst figured this out in my opinion and it wasn't stated on any other silver channel that I know of. I kinda wonder if what I am doing here is wrong. If Jim Cramer is not talking about resistance level or the 685% fibonacci marks I don't think I am doing the right thing by coming into the blogosphere and showing all these weird analysis points. Maybe I should just stick to focusing in on the Stochastics and say to short every time that reading is above 80. Also another thing is that the Silver (priced in gold) got over 1,000 today for the second time since Sunday night. I wonder how many analysts are stating that a gram of gold is worth the same as an ounce of silver. Very interesting I must say. The bottom line is this: I am confident in my methodology and am surprised that some things like the Fibonacci upside calculations do not spread out to the silver technical analysis community. Being a hermit from the trading community maybe it is and I don't know.

I could make a confident guess that I am only the one talking about this chart as well as some of you people reading or downloading some of my images. Some people may like to short when the lovely indicator has a reading above 80 and myself I want to see the direction the fifty day high come off its lows and then consolidate and the manifest a pattern to show the breakout. The direction from the fifty low did this both times and on both occasions I pointed this on the blog. Now we are seeing this just take off to oblivion and reduce the size in comparison to the move from 2010. The market is stronger after that major lift and because the market had a long four years of sideways consolidation from 2006 to 2010 this gives reason to show why this is happening as this gained the bulls energy needed for the move. This may sound like hogwash, but from my research the longer markets move sideways then the larger breakouts/downs tend to be. Don't know how much energy is left, but I wouldn't step in front of a train.





Market wrap up


Thursday is over and we move to the final trading day of the week and the month of April. It is also the "Friday Trade" which have been very interesting to say the least. Last Friday had a curve-ball by actually having a trading day and Friday has not had a losing day in a few months. Generally speaking the end of the session on Friday is where it gets hot right up to the close. I really would be surprised if we don't break out here. I hate going by instinct or by feeling that $50 was not going to be much resistance and that we would shoot up to the $75 area very fast. The charts are shouting either we are just starting to bring in an intermediate term top or we are just starting parabolic upside moves. The volume on the market is heavy and parabolic up moves that have 20% kind of days would most likely include massive volume with the increase of volume leading up to the event. Today's volume on SLV indicates that something big is coming our way. Final note is that I have not followed much MSM and am not aware on what they are saying about Silver and I happened to come across a gold bubble article from 2010 I want to share with you. That will come after 7pm EST.


Volatility


People have often asked what this volatility means and it should either be an intermediate term top or that of a volatile push higher. I still need to cover more on this later on as the moves that would occur in an hour when its parabolic to the upside would be inequivalent to the 4% or 5% either up or down. Still indecisive yet which it is going to be and would fence towards parabolic up move as the best probability. Because of these movements it is not a surprise for these massive up spikes and if (or when) they occur what should fall out from this are wild swings both up and down.






1250PM EST UPDATE - This volatile market remains as such as the moves that occur over a short period of time (5-60 minutes) can be quite large. small intraday corrections that used to be 0.5% are now 1.5% or even 2% corrections. The following cycles show this well
1131 - $49.53
1147 - $48.14 (-2.81%)
1150 - $48.73 (+1.22%)
1206 - $48.12 (-1.25%)
1232 - $49.01 (+1.85%)
1326 - $47.27 (-3.55%)
1424 - Current $48.72
I think $48.11 may hit the next wave cycle lower if we top anywhere near here. This section is over for the day and the next blog update will come before 4pm est.


1130AM EST UDPATE - Market continues to rally hard as it is now two percent away from all time highs. I think the highs are $50.50 and not sure, but I feel I may hear the words of silver up too much or when its all time high for the minute, hour, day, week, month, quarter, all time then I want to sell and/or sell short. Therefore the paramaters I am going to use here is whenever silver makes a new all time high and new ten minute high then I will plug the level in with a four percent rule. If it's up four percent it is closed for a win and down 4% it is closed for a loss and track to see how they do. Maybe it will only be one entry and its a huge winner. I don't think so, but time will only tell. I am taking this rally very seriously right now.



MORNING UPDATE 10AM EST



Due to storm conditions on my end the internet speed is not that great today and if I upload today, it most likely will be a 40-60 second video. I'll wait and see if something good comes up, but for now it will be updating every hour or two on the blog if the internet even holds up and normally it can handle the worst of the wind and thunderstorms. As far as the market is concerned the 61.8% level at around 47.85 to 47.90 was support rather than resistance. This was then support showing that the selling from the very early Monday AM peak to the low breaking $45 was a failure. Often times from failed moves creates fast moves in the other direction (thank you Brian Shannon, your awesome). The fibonacci math would state that $53.00 is the next price objective on the break of $50.00. This is a very powerful level of resistance on so many ways when you encounter the psychological aspect of it as one. The second is the 1980 all time nominal highs. The $48.36 fibonacci level is also in this mix and when you look at this chart and draw a line in the area of $48.36 what do you see? The answer to this question seems to be most certainly that this level was amazing resistance that corrected purely through time for a few hours. However, before we talk about $53.00 what is important on the intermediate term is not to make a higher high but rather establish a higher low. The last low was $44.66 and therefore sell offs to above $46.00 is still considered bullish. Final topic is that because this failed move (if it stays failed and they usually do) based on the nature of how aggressive the failed move played out, logic should state that the fast move would be aggressive in nature.

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

04.27.2011



OFF TOPIC - Thank you JSNIP4 for providing a great link to why the Birth Certificate is fake. JSNIP4 talks a lot about silver and many great things and if you are not subscribed to his channel, then I would recommend it.

Obama Birth Certificate Fake


UPDATE 7PM EDT


This is wild and crazy for the minor leagues we are in. The article below will explain why minor leagues. Fibonacci had no resistance on both the 38.2% and 61.8% marks and rather than finding resistance at that major 61.8% target it has found support. If we can hold above the 50% mark for at least six or seven hours then it looks to be setting up big for a monster break. The 161.8% of this range works out to a price objective of $53.00. May I also point out that it is not uncommon where it can make it to the next level (58.14). I should point out that when you are talking about reaching the second level it can often times take many candles. From the breakout I can only guess it would take around 30 candles to reach the 161.8% and that spans a day and a quarter. The 261.8% target can at times take 100-200 ticks or week a two in time. This of course is only a guideline and we have yet to confirm that the five dollar sink to be a failed breakdown.


POST MARKET REPORT


A three dollar up day from top to bottom and the third straight day where the movements from the lowest to highest level exceeded five percent. This is the first time this has happened since June of 2009. I only have daily records going back to September 29, 2008 and during this time frame the market was very volatile making the current move for the status of the minor leagues. The movements from 09/29/2008 to 11/06/08 had an average top to bottom move per day of 9%. To put into perspective how volatile this time was there has only been five days since November the sixth with at least nine percentage moves. Three of them came very quickly from that end point in 2008 (volatility cool down point) and the most recent one was last November. The largest day in 2008 was over 30% when Silver fell from $12.24 to $9.30. A Three dollar drop is much different at $12 as it is at $50 because three bucks on fifty is only six percent. Six percent on twelve dollars is around seventy-five cents. The reason I am saying this is to point out that we are not at massive volatility within' the comparison to what we experienced before. Most of the time you get periods of ten percent moves over and over again per day means you are selling off (most of the time) or you are experiencing one of those very rare major lift offs to the upside and that has only ever happened once and that was in late 1979 and into the first few days of 1980. I truly believe that the odds of having at least one of those monstrous up moves that spans a few days to occur. Picking the day or week is almost impossible, but what is possible is narrowing which days have a realistic shot. The only way it should happen is if you are in a secular bull market (check mark) and you are breaking the rate of ascent on many levels (check mark) and the fast sell offs are only that. (Fast and check mark)

If the 1979 comparison is going to be DEAD ON ACCURATE for time on the big breakout move, then all I can say about that is that it is 17:35pm EDT and there is about eight hours or so left before the next LBMA update and good luck. But with what happened today after the fed meeting and the big moves that followed it kind of makes me wonder if somethings brewing. The trend remains very strong and shorting this market is very risky as you battling against the path of least resistance. The poll on the right hand side started last week and it was a 2-1 ratio of Yes to No for seeing $50 by the end of this month. Then after what happened on the weekend it changed from 2-1 to 3-1. Its now settled in the middle around 2.5-1 yes over no and myself I switched it to "NO" on Tuesday morning and it I placed it back to "YES" this afternoon because this baby looks good to go and an increase of volatility is easily possible after viewing the data from 2008.


Fed Speaks Today!



12:30 PM Eastern / 9:30 AM Pacific the Federal Reserve minutes are today and on a technical level that usually means higher volatility than the current average. I am not interested in what Mr. Ben Bernanke has to say today unless he happens to against the grain and say something earth shattering. I think its a safer bet that the winner of this years superbowl will be the Cincinatti Bengals and they'll go 19-0 in pro football in a year there may not even be a football season. The odds are lottery like as would the odds be for Ben Bernanke to explain so that the average person can understand that its a debt based world or have Ben say that the gold standard is coming back or even for Ben to say he is sorry and he and other banks were greedy. Those things you aren't going to see. What you will see is talk about inflation at two percent or maybe even three. The word "Jobless Recovery" has now fallen down the waistline and those are the creative type of buzz words I expect. For a chart technical level, what normally happens is the volatility to go lower in the moments leading up to the event and then things to explode as the meeting starts. Normally the fed meetings state 2:15pm EDT and this is one is earlier. That means at exactly 12:30 the stock market, the dollar, the bonds market as well as gold and silver will move violently. Because the average hourly move was well over one percent from top to bottom to start this week the odds would state it could be a 4% move in less than an hour after the meeting. This is hard to say how aggressive it will be. Check back later on as I hope to show an awesome intraday chart from 12:30 to whenever this thing cools down.

Tuesday, April 26, 2011

04.26.2011







Post Market Report


The pattern is moving towards what I like to call "D-Day" and this always occurs in some form of an indecisive pattern that is coming very close to making its decision. We have experienced a great deal of selling from the top and around 44.66 has been established as massive support but it can very easily go lower. That doesn't mean it will but a break of this level would certainly mean the odds for another wave lower to occur. The one and the five day averages are crossing together and this is the area where we will see if the five is used as resistance for that leg lower or if it is support for the move higher. This same line works within' the fibonacci retracement from the lows of around $40 and the highs close to $50. Because it has stayed above the lower purple line this tells us that the move higher is still successful and that line is the must hold to continue this rally. The upper 61.8% Fibonacci level has been used as a level of support and has moved sideways (or corrected through time) and it falls from here it will be a classic fall from the key level. The market can keep correcting through time and for upside targets are $46.56 and $47.77 which connects the high from the start of this week and the big support at 44.66. On the shortest of term levels it looks likely that we will test the $46.50 area in a few hours as the volatility is reducing a little bit and the push from its previous low after it not being a lower low is assuring.


GOLD & SILVER VOLATILITY


This image is from March 1, 2011 to April 26, 2011 at 12:00pm Eastern. This shows me two different things and the first one is that gold is not that volatile. It's movements are much weaker and smaller in comparison to silver. This is to be expected and goes with the historical movements. When we see Silver go up two percent then gold should be up 0.4% and when silver is down two percent then gold should be down around 0.4%. That seems to be the way things are going, however the main point on this as well as the reason I posted this image to the log is because as the silver volatility is skyrocketing this week the gold one is staying flat or in the direct area that it was before. Gold had some big moves in March as did Silver but as Silver made new highs on their volatility the Gold one did not. The calculations for this index is by taking the hourly volatility in percentile moves (High-Low)/Low and then taking the average of the last 30 & 120 periods. I add those two numbers together and multiply 1,000.

Monday, April 25, 2011

04.25.2011




11:35PM UPDATE - MORE SELLING


Market is down a little over ten percent in a little under twenty four hours. If you are looking for a dip, then here you go as it has now at the five day moving average. Given the volatility in the market the odds state that some support should be found at this level and the movements will continue to be enormous. If this level fails then the fibonacci targets will be $42.85 and $43.33 that should rely for good support. The odds do go higher that we have faced an intermediate term top. It's unlikely that we will have another large wave lower without at least another correction through price going higher or time that corrects sideways as the market faces a very oversold condition in the short term for what is still an uptrend on most long term time frames. I was kind of hoping for this myself because of my plan to buy more silver on Tuesday and a move of this nature makes it easier to barter for lower prices.

12:35am (FINAL) - I am off to bed and I fully expect the price to be higher when I wake up as the odds this area is support is big. Does not mean it will, but greater than 75% likelihood I think. There has been eight straight hours where the movements are one percent or greater and 15 of the last 17 periods have been greater and therefore something is going down!


Post Market Wrap Up


Today was most certainly a volatile day and the volume on the SLV shares had 188 million shares traded which is a new all time high surpassing the high from November 9 of 148 million shares. These high volume moves should create one of two scenarios. One of them is a top that will take a long time to be revisit and the second is the start of a big push to the upside that may have higher volume even later on. The last time it had the big volume is the second of the two as the prices doubled from its $25.00 bottom. Tops and bottoms are known after the fact and are very hard to guess. For today’s movements, the range from bottom to top was 8.95% and this was the highest since the exact same day of the high volatility. It is a little interesting this happens as we approach the Wednesday session that was mentioned last week in the 31 year comparison video. If we are to have an explosive rally which has gains we have not seen in quite some time in a percentile basis then the most likely scenario is to encounter the action we have been seeing. Having 16 up days out 18 to start and follow this with a violent nine percent retracement in a few hours. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke also is speaking on Wednesday and this should increase some volatility even more if you haven't had enough already. Day traders are now going to be able to win or lose big over a short period of time as the most likely moves in the afternoon session and from the only source I seen the time this begins is at 12:30pm EDT and 9:30am pacific. The ultimate outcome is as certain as a morning sunrise still as the currency will either have to re-peg itself to real commodities like gold and silver or the currencies are going to flat out die and become a souvenir that will leave us with memories and a popular historical story for the generations of the future. During this run to these large levels many quote not only the triple digits but possibly even four digits and if this occurs, then there will have to be some very volatile moments and down moves that will take us there. The most likely scenario is that many ten percent days will occur and over 70% of those big days will be down movements like today and back in November. The daily chart is still in a great position and still no need for me to even display the fifty day moving average until it can either correct more through price or time. The five day moving average is rising and all sell offs (including the big one today) are guilty until proven innocent.


VOLATILITY



This move of almost 9% is the second largest as you can see on the top part of this chart. The warning signs on this image tells us to buckle our seat belts more than anything. I do not have older data the 2008 bottom on the daily time from for the OHLC on the twenty four cycle and am unsure on the data before this for an index value but I do have it from 09/28/08 which can give me something to work with. This move today most likely will spark something on the longer term charts and this can be very dangerous for individuals whom are trying to time the market and especially those who play with any kind of leverage. The movements from 1980 had average closes of ten percent one way or the other and we are not in that kind of ballpark (yet).

Short term things are just wild to say the least. Since midnight began on the New York time frame there has been thirteen hours where the moves from the lowest and highest level exceeded one percent. To put this into perspective there were that many one percent moves in a span of five days that preceded this wild action. It's tough to say what is going behind the scenes, but by using technical analysis it is easy determine that it is something. With the events that took place last Friday we can trigger this to something and the high volatility should ultimately mean either an intermediate term top or an explosive up move to follow.


There is more on the post market summary including the fact the Silver priced in Gold broke 1,000! No one will talk about that or at least this would probably be the place it is talked about. Update will occur later tonight.



AM MORNING UPDATE - The volatility is wild right now and every hour one and two percentile moves are occurring and thus things are starting to get out of control. It is only a matter of time or it was only a matter of time before this happens and any big selling (that may occur) is very bullish for this market for the $100+ Longterm levels people are eyeing. There is no way we are going to cruise to $100 and beyond without having this volatility. The higher a market comes up then the further they will fall and thus it's went up pretty high and can continue to go up. Granted the higher this baby goes up the bigger the correction with eventually become. Key word of course is eventually. If it does get out of control to the downside in the next few hours or couple of days I would expect the five day moving average to become good support and the roller coaster has left the station and fasten your seat belts and enjoy the ride.

Sunday, April 24, 2011

04.24.2011

(All times eastern -5GMT)

1102p - FINAL - Canucks lost and so are the silver shorts right now (hahaha) as the market is moving higher. The volatility seems lower and that sounds bullish to me as we move into the NY Monday. Be back in the morning with an update, but this is a one day event where I randomly type on a time log and will move it back to normal for Monday.

1011p - Hockey game is in OT and I seen new 31 year highs again with $47.94 being touched. What a resilient market. Go Canucks Go!

945p - I'll be done soon, but the $47.65 level seemed to call a good bottom at least it has rallied nice since then. If you did play this in any way make sure you realize risk versus reward and do what you gotta do but im going to expect nice gains today or at least my bias is going to continue to remain very bullish as we approach $48.36 and the even $50.00 level. In fact im going to watch some Blackhawks and Canucks as its 3-3 midway through the 3rd period now. If something big happens in the meantime I won't see it.

925p - Consolidating the shortest of term time frame crash at 47.65. Because the pierce was fast this does state whether the break happens below or up that it maybe very volatile.

918p - That was a 0.7% move in one minute. Volume probably as high and I don't have that information. 65 cents didn't hold that well and could bring us down for more selling or for the 10m, 30m etc. time frames to consolidate a little bit better. Considering the last big resistance was $46.26 it was kinda odd that we kept having these gains on the outset with low volatility. This is the kinda moves I was looking for. Back later on the follow up on this

916pm - Crash, Back later on whats going on

9pm - Most of this below means jiberish or meaningless information for many. For those that saw this live or updated this page every so often, all I can say is I can be weird at times. The trend for Monday looks very strong and until the trend changes playing on corrections is the winner. Not sure on the news, but I hope something big happens soon. We all know JP Morgan is up to their tricks and action is what im hoping for. We're closing on the psychological $50 level so I like how things are going. Be back in over 30 minutes

853p - Levels I am looking for is a move to either $47.65 on the way down as mentioned a few moments ago or a break above the significant fib level of 47.84. As I say this the market makes a new 70 minute low and Im looking for big support at 65 cents

844p - Down 14c from its high set 22 minutes ago. The market needs some time or price to correct and its currently at $47.77

840p - Aprx $47.65 is the 38.2% from the lows and highs over the last 2 hours and forty minutes. A slow down will occur at 9pm on the blog.

836p - Many stops taken out here. Watch out for fast move lower now

833p - I like the chances we make new 31 year highs. Breaking 61.8% nice and 82 cents should hold if it even retraces

830p - Has retraced 61.8% of this sell off. Key level thus is $47.84. I wanna see a bounce from 81 cents

825p - Nice push lower. Obvious support level is 47.73

823p - This time a six cent sale. $47.83

815p - Goodbye to that mini sale now as its back to its levels from 804pm and looking good to go for another leg higher.

804p - New 31 year high *Yaaay* @ $47.85 and its sold off five cents for a mini bargain. Bullish on the short term still

754p - $47.77 is now the level. This was that high mark from the Friday session. This area could bring some resistance but its been pretty remarkable this ride and if there isn't any resistance a spike above $48 should happen soon

734p - Market remains bullish and the $48.36 level may come soon as in a few hours


703p - Small Uptick, update later


652p - Looking to break out short term up to 47.61

645p - Watching short term volatility which seems to be much lighter than expected to start but the rally has held for three quarters of an hour and now at the top end of the range. Hourly chart coming after 7pm

634p - Trading sideways in the range of 47.47 and 47.59 after a nice gap higher. Given the early factors i am not too sold that the market is ready to retrace as of yet as the price is at the bottom section of this range currently at 47.50.

608p - Market opens and its $47.50 currently. $47.29 is used as Friday's close. Be back in 30 minutes



6PM EDT THE MARKET OPENS AT. I Will probably be busy at that exact time, but will write summaries throughout the evening. The market ended Friday with many questions and possible conspiracy theories. I think the market closed at $47.22 and am not sure. The open will decide for ME what the Friday closing price was and there should be a lot of good analysis tonight. I have no idea what to expect as of yet other than I will do the best I can to adjust to the message of the market. The plan is to keep it active from 7pm to 9pm EDT tonight with updates every few minutes.

Friday, April 22, 2011

04.22.2011

Silver Closes Friday at $47.22?? and trades until 6pm EDT!


I seen the live ticks trading at this point up until 6pm EDT which was very unusual. Right now I am more creeped out than anything as movements that gain two percent are often times hardly worth mentioning, but when you have these moves happen behind close doors it makes you think. I'm going to do my best and say "MEH" in regards to what happened today and use the open of Sunday's market as a gauge. I know bankers do wild things behind the scenes and it should be obvious to most people. I expect when the wild things engage that it will occur over a weekend and we are moving into a weekend. This will be the last post of the day and I will make a new thread for Saturday.












GOOD FRIDAY TRADE - UP ONE CONSPIRACY DOLLAR



The reason I say conspiracy is because it is a conspiracy theory if it is in fact $47 or $46 silver. It is a conspiracy theory to what happened to cause todays action and the entire dollar system maybe entitled as a conspiracy that money is debt and backed by nothing. I'll let you be the judge of that one. As far as price action is concerned, it looks as if this $47 and change price is correct and the most likely scenario over the weekend is that people will still be unsure and the market will open on Sunday night at 6pm EDT and it will open at around $47 and change and be very volatile. On my chart I have made the entire price move occur within' only one hour for my data which is going to make my volatility chart go haywire for a little while. This means Silver is under two percent away from the $48.36 fibonacci level and under six percent from the $50.00 psychological level. This also means eight straight up days in a row and sixteen of the last eighteen days are on the upside and the "Friday Trade" I talked about last week and the one I thought was going to be on the sidelines for a week increased its gain once again and it's hot streak continues. Wild and crazy times to say the least.


VOLATILITY


This information is unofficial for the last result because I still do not know what happened on this mysterious Friday holiday morning at around 10:00AM EDT. This is a late in my opinion to think this has anything to do with the Asian market. There is around 12 hours of a time difference with China making this around 10pm on their Friday night. That doesn't make sense to me that it comes from China. Could it have been India? It would have been around 8pm in India and would have to say "NO" to that. Could it be Europe? There is only a five hour time difference from New York City and London and therefore it would have been around 3pm in England. I still don't think that to be the case. My guess is this move was done within' the American soil and the volatility this should engage can be quite enormous for both up and down moves.


GAMBLING

1. a. To bet on an uncertain outcome, as of a contest.
1. b. To play a game of chance for stakes.
2. To take a risk in the hope of gaining an advantage or a benefit.
3. To engage in reckless or hazardous behavior

The first part of the gambling definition tells me that life pretty much is an ongoing gamble. I buy physical silver because I love it's risk versus reward potential and thus it is my gamble. If you were getting ten to one odds to guess a random suit of a standard playing card deck you would be gambling because you are unsure if you will win. However, your risk versus reward would be very good as you would win ten units one out of four tries and lose one unit three times for a total of seven units gained. In the real world it can be very hard to find what the true risk versus reward ratio can be when trying to make wagers that have several calculations. Therefore if you are making trades on this paper market for higher or lower prices you are gambling because you are not sure on the outcome. The 1b Definition says playing for stakes which is done for certain on the stock market and it also said playing a game. It totally is a game in trying to pick top and bottoms and buy at a lower price than you sell for and short at a higher price you cover at. The final one is reckless behavior and that is not always true, but is most definitely true with many gamblers. I spent some time in my twenties and seen many gamblers lose it and it can be a problem. Most gambling games are set up to so that the gamblers lose in the long run and I wont to comment on an anonymous user whom has been trying to be cool by shorting silver.


It was two weeks ago and a video came on the internet stating that silver was overbought at $40.00/oz. The indicators used are ones that I stay away from and that is stochastics and apparently because they were over 80 that it was time to go short. Despite the five day moving average in an uptrend and despite the fact that we have had confirmation using fibonacci to the $50.00 level on two occasions. Using one indicator for this play seems very strange in my opinion. It's like betting against a sports team because of one trend that goes against them and then ignoring all the others. The user shorted again up to the $42.00 handle. Then Friday of last week came and the market ended the week up very good closing at $43.40 and all of a sudden all the videos were taken down. I thought that was very cowardly myself and I was not surprised. What did surprise me however was the channel got back up again this week with a service stating how good this person is at in defeating the market. Maybe this is like your regular sports tout whom gives away free picks that are not as good as the premium one and thus the free pick (Short of silver) was the loser. I don't know because I have no interest in that service because it is way too shady for my opinion. The Short silver video updates came back and I found it hilarious that the net results on the first two shorts below $42.00 were overall small losers. Especially since the original video stated to cover the shorts when the stochastics went much lower. This didn't happen and because the video was removed I can't refer back to it. On the Friday morning video the user stated at the end some words like "I'm gonna short me some more silver at 46 and change" and this sounded like a teenage kid trying to be cool because he or she is going to get drunk some more. The play was shorting the Double Long ETF which has double the gains up or down for the most part. This means with the silver market already up 2% with the moves bringing silver to $47.60 that this one is already down 4% and could be more on Monday. I would prefer for the trend to tell me to short with a declining five day moving average and the move to $50 has now been confirmed for months that the earliest I would consider guessing tops would be a this level solely on this one factor.

Thursday, April 21, 2011

04.21.2011





Short Term Analysis


This is getting crazy here as resistance lines keep getting taken out to the upside. This means the rate of ascent keeps going higher and higher and yet another weekend closes where the market is bullish on every time frame. The resistance trend line that closed the Thursday and Friday sessions of last week was taken a few times this week and now is showing that it wants to break from this level as support. Anyone whom is shorting here is fighting the trend as there is nothing to state this from stopping its trend at this moment. I see the $50.00 level coming as the lowest area where one maybe successful by trying to guess an intermediate term top, but from what I've learned about technical analysis is that when resistance or support is not found than it is full steam ahead. The $31.42 level I talked so much about was only big resistance on the short term, tiny resistance on the intermediate term and none on the long term and the result is a blast to the next level of $48.36. If we top right now it will end up being a pierce below, but it looks as if it will be tested. This is why I would not want to look for any short positions with virtually every indicator guiding to higher prices including the most important one which is price action. This $50 is going to scary and/or exciting because the probably odds state that we burst even faster and further to $78 or we in fact do top at $50 and it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. Either way we are only a few percentage points away now from these levels that short term moves are going to be important for the long term now.








Happy Easter. The blog will be updated later on throughout the night and weekend. There is a lot to cover and should presented in mini articles like last week. The market held well above $46.00 today and this train seems to heading towards $50. The blog votes have remained about 2 to 1 on the people thinking "Yes" for $50 silver by the end of the month or the end of next Friday (5 more trading days). Only a seven percent gain would be needed to make it to this level.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

04.20.2011




Update - 948pm EDT


Another 31 year high as the market keeps moving higher. The failed move today was the over two percent drop in under 1,800 seconds (30 minutes) and it has proceeded higher. Already off to a good start with a six game winning streak on the long side and the $48-$50 target seems to be in clear view. This means the $78 level will have be to talked about a little bit, but before that will be the "Hunt Brothers" as I made a prediction months ago that when silver would approach $50 for the first time we would hear "a little more" on the mainstream media about silver and the story will most likely be the Hunt Brothers and how they tried to corner the market. I doubt I will believe much that they say but for now enjoy the gains to the upside as the trend keeps soaring higher.


End of the day Report - Nice up day today and the fast move lower was just that. Fast! It went down over 2% in under thirty minutes and recaptured its losses that quickly. This market is holding up very well and $48.36 most likely is the next resistance on the intermediate term up to $52 and the 1980 high.



Silver to Gold and Gold to Silver


On the Silver to Gold ratio or the Silver priced in Gold this chart is skyrocketing. It is approaching a key 1,000 level which will mean an ounce of silver will be even with a gram of gold or a 31.1 ratio. The trend lines shown on this chart are showing explosive signs. The big spike from 850 to 880 was on a break of the resistance line. By taking the same length as the previous range and same ascension rate it has moved above the line and has found support at this level. What this tells you is a higher ascension rate for the market as drawing trend lines in this chart with higher uptrend angles would be a very easy task. No signs of a top right now and in my opinion picking a top in this current market is a fools game.


The trend is lower! Much lower. This is an aggressive downtrend line that has been hugging support much more than the upper edge of this trend. Its due for support and maybe because it is at the trend line it may however since the breakdown less than one year ago the ratio has lost around fifty percent of its value. I guess Gold is in a bubble (or was) priced in silver and the bubble would have burst in 2008 when gold was under $700. The ultimate bubble I guess is dollars, but this shows us that silver has been over performing the gold and metal and there is no such thing as down to low. If this ratio rallies from here up to the 37 area or something that can be considered a bounce then that is both bullish and bearish. The market needs a lower high as the last one was a little over 40. The fundamentals of course should signify it has much more downside room to more or at least another fifty percent down more to move to its historic 16 to 1 ratio. Stats on inventory and production may state it should be closer to nine or ten to one and tangible usages can make this number go even lower than that. This one is up for opinion and what is not up for opinion is the historic ratio as well as the current trend of this chart.

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

04.19.2011



To enlarge any image click on the photo


END OF THE DAY REPORT - The market again making new highs and because it has only had around one percent gains from its previous highs I think the most likely scenario is some more gains before it tops. The $43.25 level pointed out this week has worked very big as a resistance point and this means the 261.8% level is next. This target is set at $45.32 and that means the $43.25 which used to be resistance is now that of support. This and the five day moving average are the key levels that I want to see hold for this rally to continue. For now bulls are in charge.

The trend lines in this photo have parallel lines showing the current uptrend and in the short term a consolidation period at the one day average (blue line) would be a good and healthy thing. I don't think we need to test the five day moving average yet but when it does test it will be the third test of this current rising trend. At some point the intermediate term trend will need to revert back to the downside but we might have to patient for this the way this market is holding up. I am surprised people are calling tops this early in this move to $50.00 as it seems it is easier to play a bull market to the long side. Hardly anyone is ahead in shorts now as that would only be those whom short the last couple hours of trading or have active shorts from 1980 above $44 and for some reason have not taken any profits yet. Therefore as the market goes higher anyone speculating on these shorts are going to be forced to cover or take the heat of possible large losses.



GOLD versus HUI


I had someone mention to me previously about the difference on the ETF of HUI and the actual spot price and the ETF goes back a little ways away as you can see here. On June 10, 1996 the HUI was set at $194.74 and the spot price of Gold was $386.25. That was roughly a two to one ratio and therefore that is why the chart has two shares of the Gold ETF to one ounce of physical. Interestingly enough at the start of this chart it crashed big on the HUI side of things. It managed to get back to the two to one ratio and when the 2008 market crash had occurred we seen the same thing again. Gold moves from $1029 to $700 and the HUI index from $520 to $160. Therefore it topped at its two to one ratio and then when it crashed to the bottom it ended up worked out to be over a four to one ratio. It has since came close to matching with it's previous high as the last couple years have made me adjust this chart to a three to one ratio and it has been over performing gold and if the trend continues then I would expect the rally in gold to continue and HUI to creep back to the 2 to 1 ratio. However, its two for two in crashing pretty hard and if we have another correction gold it may only take a 20% down move for HUI to lose half its value. If you play any of these stocks, I'd like to remind you that you are essential risking fiat digital or paper dollars to win digital dollars that can be turned over for fiat paper dollars. Your wager is based on price action of the gold price and is thus a calculated gamble. Thank you and later on in the blog either tonight or tomorrow is a Palladium update.

Monday, April 18, 2011

04.18.2011




UP!



The Market is going up! The path of least resistance is higher! We are in an uptrend! I am laughing more and more when people say that it has to pullback or its up too much and the greatest line that it can not go up any more without a sell off. Monday was an up day and this daily chart now shows four straight green candles. This is a four game winning streak. We can also see it had eight straight up days before the two down days making this a 12-2 streak over the last fourteen. Since February Silver is 40-20 or has had forty up days and twenty down days in the last sixty. This tells us that Silver is hot! Would you bet against the New York Yankees or any other baseball teams who has the same streak? I do admit that it can't keep going up to a degree and almost 100% of the time a parabolic up or down move happens, it can be determined as if "It was not a surprise" because of the current trend and when support has been found every single time and the 38.2% level has been as outstanding as it has been it makes me feel we are in a yellow alert for this move to happen. The day is coming soon where it will pop up big and then volatility will unleash us for weeks (if not months) as the wild swings in percentage moves will get out of control. However, for those whom don't like roller coasters or these wild rides and hope for silver to go to the moon there is no other way to go to the moon other than through some turmoil and thus causing the roller coaster to go extreme. Long run it should all work out amazing and there doesn't seem to be any investments right now that do not have some degree of risk within' this roller coaster ride of life. Holding dollars right know within' its risk versus reward ratio is a negative proposition. Not so volatile now because it loses somewhat slow and that too can also pickup. If you are buying silver in the hopes of stable price movement with price targets over $70 then I do not like your chances we top that low, but good luck. The reason I called this mini article "Up" was because this song was mentioned to me in the comments of a video (song below) and it defines the current trend.





That Don't Impress Me Much


$16-$18 was a big range three years ago and after the crash we revisted it for a long time. I was impressed by how long the banking elite were able to keep the prices suppressed, but I am not impressed to the reasons why they choose such the actions. Same is true for keeping this information away for them. I am quite impressed that I am still wondering why most people don't get it yet. Therefore if you asked me three years ago today if Silver would be making new highs over $43 i wouldn't have believed you. I would have thought over $100 by now and I was wrong on that one. However, it would have been safe to say that if it was only going to be around $40ish that we would have had to have had a crash at some point and the answer would be yes to that again. that impresses me they could make the market move from $21 to $9 in a little over one half year. Once again it doesn't impress me why they did it. The move from $18 to $24 that had seemed to have taken forever with quarter gains per day didn't impress me that much. Moving to $29 once again didn't impress me although it was close. The move to $31 didn't impress me much, nor did the moves into the $40 handle. Once again it is getting close. The reason it was close at $29 and again today is because we are in area where we can go parabolic. I need to see this to be impressed or the gains to continue. If this happens that means the same old stuff and Silver by $75 in the summer. If these moves continue I will start to be impressed when I need to cut the lawn as it would be like watching grass grow. With a nominal high of $50.00 and being below it, it is impossible for me to be impressed at these levels. When i throw in over thirty years of inflation and then look at where we are compared to where we should be it will take a nice move to impress me. Below is the Song again from Shania. The blog will be updated light on 09/19/2011.




Update 5:05pm EDT - The market ended the day with some nice gains and massive volatility from this morning. I like how it has rebounded after a sudden spike in the price today. Not sure if we are heading into those out of control times right now, but the indicators are leading towards the possibility of such an event to occur to be higher than they ever were before. I'll be back with a blog update later on after 9pm EDT tonight.



Update 12:14 EDT - When markets move to any kind of new volatile environment it can take me a little bit to settle into things while I calm down and focus on the message of the market. The dow is only down two hundred points and that is not even two percent. If it can go down at least two and a half percent for the day then I may have to think something wild is coming. Right now I can not because every correction gold, silver and the dow have faced has been just that of a correction. I consider this silver market to be indecisive as moves as we have seen in the past few months in silver indicate either a big breakdown or breakout. Breakout meaning the next stage of the parabolic phase and the breakdown means a correction of at least 20-25% or at least a dozen weeks or so through time. Because of the 1979 comparison (Video below) it seems that the odds may favor for that of a breakout and thus if the comparison lives true then next week or at the start of May will be wild.


Friday, April 15, 2011

04.15.2011




END OF THE DAY WRAP UP - When looking at the three charts above from todays intraday movements there are signs showing the market should break out to start the day on Monday (Sunday night in the West). There is no signs for this rally slowing down and the signs from the chart is on Gold showing a nice time consolidation for four hours after it had three nice up ticks. The final candle of the day gives us reason to think that we can make moves to higher gains. For the silver chart we have a pattern where the uptrend line is going at a higher ascent rate as the resistance line. The last four resistance hits would be the peaks and the three support handles. Like Gold in the final hour this candle looks bullish and if it can hold $42.80 for more than a couple hours to start the day, I'd be getting pumped for the likelihood of testing new upside areas. The Silver to Gold ratio is also showing bullishness at the end as it has had constant resistance tests all day and the final candle is also a breakout one.

This image to the left has some nice upside fibonacci targets. To enlarge/download any image all you have to do is click on the photo and if you want to save it then after you click on it you should be able to save an image by right clicking and choosing "Save image as". Friday was another up day and this has been a common theme to end the week. Every Friday seems to have huge gains and I am proud to have been able to put this information up on my blog hours before the market broke out on Friday. Next Friday I think is "Good Friday" and I don't think the market will be open then, but I am not sure. All that aside, the hourly candle chart has broke away from the two moving averages (One and Five Day). It is not over extended because there are three red candles before the final two green candles. This indicates to me that it corrected a small amount through price and is once again breaking out. My best prediction would be a move to the $43.25 area as the market opens and then consolidating after that in some manner. The last two resistance areas are $42.80 and $42.50 which are areas to keep your eye on as we move into next week as possible support areas.



Inflation Adjusted Chart


Many months ago I made a video explaining why it was such a great time to buy silver and not to concern yourself with $24 silver being way to expensive. I don't like buying high, nor do I like selling low and when it was breaking past this area we seen many great setups show that it was great to buy silver. In this chart there is an inverted head and shoulders pattern that lasted from 1991 to 2010 and the moving averages were showing signs of a breakout also. The breakout has happened as this chart is moving closer to an equilibration point somewhere in the middle. The expected target on this head and shoulders pattern is currently set at around $52 as yet another reason to give this area major resistance status. What is missing from this chart is older data which suggests that we are still extremely undervalued as well as information to what fair value was in the 1970s. If you line up where $43.00 is currently on the chart now you can see we are back to 1973 levels and because of this it gives reason for more upside targets. It's been pretty much a straight line up since the 2010 breakout and picking tops is a fools game here because there is no such thing as up too much when people are still rushing to get in. By knowing this psychology it makes it easy for me to have the "BUY AND BUY NOW" on my long term sentiment. The length from the mid 70s bottom to its 1980 peak was that of around a seven fold gain. If we add 7x on our bottom of $12 from 2008 this gives us a price objective towards $84.00.



Gold to Silver Ratio


If anyone wants to tell me that gold has bubbled, the only way I will believe you is if you mean gold priced in silver (aka the gold to silver ratio). The ultimate bubble we are facing right now is that of fiat currency and dollars. Therefore almost everything is going up in price for good reason. That reason is inflation. As far as the ratio is concerned, it closed April 15, 2011 at 34.58 and it keeps going lower and lower with no end in sight. If you are making wagers for the ratio to go higher because you feel or see that the market is down way too much then you might be a little early. If we use the terms of "Overbought" or "Oversold" then I would still say this chart is overbought because we are well above the historic sixteen to one ratio. For many years and centuries the ratio of gold to silver was usually around this level and it wasn't until this past century when things got a little out of control. I have my personal opinion where the ratio should be and at the highest it is around a ten to one mark and considering gold has very little productive tangible uses that I know of, it wouldn't shock me to find out that an ounce of silver has more value than an ounce of gold. Picking tops and bottoms for the most part can be a fools game and unless you have really good information to work with, I would not advice of such a thing.

By reversing the gold to silver ratio to the silver to gold ratio we have adjusted (or reversed) a downtrend to an uptrend. I have put some upside fibonacci on this chart based on the range this traded in for quite some time. I look at this fibonacci upside like a video game. The first level (161.8%) is very easy to take out and as you move up the ladder the challenges get harder and harder. Below is the grading I have for each level

161.8% @ 532.9 - Pretty much no resistance
261.8% @ 582.9 - Fast move to this level from the previous and no resistance
423.6% @ 663.8 - Found support at previous level and then this level was positive resistance. It was positive because it kept the higher low pattern going and finally broke through afterwards.
685.0% @ 794.7 - This was resistance for a very short period of time and then a sudden breakthrough
1109% @ 1,006.5
1794% @ 1,349.2
2903% @ 1,903.7
4698% @ 2,801


The 1,000 level is big for me because this means one gram of gold will have the same value as one ounce of silver according to the fraudulent paper markets and thus the ratio would 31.1 when it is 1,000 on this chart. Because of the resilience this market has shown, I like the chances that we test this level very soon. The trend is your friend and right now the trend here is bearish on the gold to silver and bullish on the silver to gold ratio.



THREE CRASHES


The charts on the outside is the crashing and burning the stock market has faced in two different time frames. Once was at the end of the 20s and the other one a few years ago. The middle chart in the image has the reverse of silver or the chart one would be trading if they are short the silver metal. I put the name "JP Morgan Crash" because baby, these guys are crashing very soon and this makes me smile. When we look at these charts what stands out to me is how green the stock market charts are and how red the silver one stands out. When the silver market goes up there is a red candle on this chart because its a down day for short sellers. If silver goes down then its a green candle because its a good day for short sellers. There have been 362 up days and 249 down days since the market bottomed for Silver in 2008. That means that its an up day 59.2% of the time. In baseball having a .592 winning percentage makes your a dominating team and I would have to say the same is true with Silver. That is the reason why it's so red because the short sellers have had a bad day almost three times out of five. During the 2008/2009 crash in the DOW (Chart on the right) there were 163 up days and 182 down days and only down 52.8% of the time. I think the big reason it looks more "Green" is because during the bear market there were many days when the market had big gains. In fact there 29 up days alone where it gained more than 2.5% which is more common in bear markets. In 1929 to 1932 time frame there were 316 up days and 367 down days or down 53.7% of these days and 75 of the 316 up days were those which had greater than a 2.5% gain.



Volatility


What does the message of the market tell us as of the close on this volatility? We were in a very low volatile state and then the action picked one week ago and this would mean based on how I look at this chart is we are average or at an equilibrium point. At least we are based on how the last couple of months have been. The breakout in September would have most likely seen this chart have an index around 5 as it was very boring and productive as it was like watching grass grow with the break to $24.00. That was then, and as today is concerned this would tell the me the volatility coming from strong to weak as it did is in an indecisive mode. Very similar to when markets correct through time and the break of this could very easily give us the edge to where the market will go. If we break to the upside and the market goes higher this leaves two possibilities. The first is that we do that parabolic move we have all been waiting for where 5% up or down days become common. The second would be that it would indicate that the market is running out of stream and setting up and intermediate bull trap where we will get at least a regular price or time correction. If the market goes lower with heavy volatility then an intermediate term top would be expected. If the volatility remains in the same area where it is today of having a few one percent moves here and there and never an extreme one then I would give the benefit of the doubt to the buyers and trust the pullbacks more than I normally do. If the volatility moves lower, then I would consider this to be bullish to neutral and standard the gains are usually decent and not heavy. The move from $34.00 that gained well over 10% on low volatility. The reason for this is because sellers were not aggressive to profit take that much nor were buyers for buying in mass quantities.


Silver Memory


A few months ago I was showing a chart for how Silver traded within' a fifty cent gap and I stopped doing it for a while. I was using SLV data and I have changed directions a little on this channel and stopped doing it. This one is very easy to maintain and is designed for ten percent moves. The first level goes from $20.00 to $21.99 as that is exactly a ten percent push from bottom to top. All the other ones are not exactly 10% but are very close to that measure. It is measured by taking every days highest level, lowest level and its close. What this chart indicates to me is that $26.00 to around $32.00 had the highest amount of trades or longest duration in time. This is the only level that has endured a correction within' this bull market as we seen in December and January. It seems every level on here trades for around fifty ticks. Because there is three of these recorded by dividing the fifty we can estimate we stay in these ranges for around seventeen days. We entered into $43.00 at the very end of the day and now have two points on the new scale with the high and close being in this range. For the previous one to reach fifty area it would need at least twenty ticks or six to seven days of trading in that area. This also gives me reason to raise these best expected support levels to the $38 to $39 level from its previous mark of $35 to $36.



WEEKEND VIDEO

Not sure why I can not embed it, so the direct link is here


OTHER PEOPLE ON SILVER



DonHarrold April 14, 2011-> He watched a youtube video the other day where someone else said $42 was overbought as the video started off. Don's view is to short the market as he sees the spot price being overbought. Also had a phone call unnamed whom is an enormous bull who has not bought since $27.50 and I guess thinks its going lower.

VIDEO LINK

I tried to search for that other Youtube video whom is also bearish at $42 and was not able to. This is what I found. If you know of anymore published at the earliest on Thursday, please let me know.

IchimokuCharts April 14, 2011-> Status was bullish. Video Link Here

FX Times April 14, 2011-> Bullish and is viewing resistance at $43 followed by $47. Video Link Here

XTBIndia -> April 15, 2011-> See's one bearish trend and still calls market super bullish and suicide to short. Chart Link Here

BrotherJohnF April 14, 2011 -> Buillsh on the trend and has been expecting the market to shoot up to $50 for a quite a while now without much getting in it's way. Video Link Video Link Here

PeterTrial1 April 15, 2011-> Rallies because of Global inflatioanry news and weakining dollar. Video Link Here

Lindwaldock April 15, 2011-> Mentions Bolivia and mining news and people going into paper silver from stocks. He says silver prices to hit $50 in the next month. Video Link Here

Silverbuzzsuccess April 15, 2011-> Metals Rally due to Job Reports. Video Link Here

Brain Shannon April 15, 2011-> It's a fools game to pick a top in this market. Video Link


Ira Epstein April 15, 2011-> Market is a runaway. The power of people wanting to own silver is overwhelming. Ira also states you never know how high is high. One should be looking for buy signals and not sell signals with a rising 18 day moving average. Video Link Here

Thursday, April 14, 2011

04.14.2011



The Friday Trade!

One more day left in this week and like most of them we will have it end on a Friday. Next week I think is Good Friday and an off day, but the gains lately have been huge on Fridays. Currently there is eight straight Fridays that have had daily gains and ten winners out of eleven. At the start of the rally silver underperformed on this day the other four days and now it seems the opposite is true. My bias is pretty strong right now for this rally to continue into Friday and most likely making a play towards the $43.40 level that I talked about at the end of last Friday's session. Don't know why the gains are happening like this on the last day of the week, but they are. What I notice is that on the 10-1 streak of Friday up days that six of them occurred with closes at or very close to the days highs. It seems the last hour (4pm to 5pm EDT) the silver market on Friday has decent size gains to close the session. We'll have wait and see obviously but the bears have been wrong and bulls have been right.



Another 31 Year High!


The technical analysis played out perfect today within' the fibonacci range mentioned this week. I didn't expect the breakout to give us gains of $1.50, but it does not surprise me either. When I say "all sell off guilty until proven innocent with a rising five day moving average" that is because the buyers are in control and thank you Brian Shannon for being a great teacher. This was a successful five day test and the market has seen some great gains. I am sure now the Bollinger bands are going wild and the MacD's are telling you that it is overbought. Short term we need to correct at some point and some level. As I write this at 7:41pm EDT the market is at $42.26 and sixteen cents from the new 31 year high. It's been going sideways and that tells me that we are not over extended on the most shortest of term time frames. On the intermediate because we made a high of $41.97 on Monday morning and sold off, this tells me that we still have upside growth potential as the gains have only been a little over 1%. When Silver makes new highs it seems that the gains are 3-4% at least from its previous peak. Last Friday I stated a level of $43.40 as my next go to target and Im sticking to it. Likely hood we should be there soon. Tomorrow is Friday and usually Friday's are good days. It is options expiry for SLV shares and most Fridays this year have resulted in good up days. I may put another piece out tonight. Not sure yet. Thanks for stopping by and keep stacking :)

Wednesday, April 13, 2011

04.13.2011



Update 11:30pm EDT


The market is holding up well and its making a nice pattern of higher lows as it is battling well with the key resistance level at $40.75 to $40.80 level. Watch out for a nice move to the upside. There is some fibonacci resistance around $41.12 if we can make another run higher. What would be ideal is to make a move to the $41.10 area and come back and find support at $40.80 where previous resistance can be support. Market's don't always trade that easy but often times they do. For now, I like how the market has used the one day average as lift off support on this chart. Have a good night or day (whenever or wherever you are) and thanks for stopping by the blog. Enjoy some other posts down below. Any image you see on this page can be enlarged by clicking on them.



Comparing 1979/1980 again with today


When I was first looking at this chart earlier today I was thinking of two roller coasters. One of which is that adrenalin rush we get that is so spectacular that it will bring memories one can savor for life. The movements were massive as it took around five weeks for it to break it's barrier to $40 and well over five months to get past $32 (let alone $40 or $50). Bottom line is the movements we are having right now are very much the opposite of wild which is tame. The move where Silver went from $42 below $40 in a few hours would be laughed at for the 1979 and 1980 traders who seen the wild volatility. What I get most out of this is the reason for the tame moves today is because when Silver was moving to $50 back then it was going wild as it entered a top. This is normal topping action for any kind of chart that goes sky high. We are not sky high right now and there will be no need for me to even consider a longterm high until at least (key word at least) the future movements can be in the same league as 1980. We are in the minor leagues right now as of April 13, 2011.




My Comment on the $25 Silver News!


I don't think we will see much of a serious retracement until it has gone to the moon as some people like to quote. The current gains achieving over 140% are very light in my opinion and I am not saying this because I am a silver bug. I am only a temp silver bug because I am a math bug more than anything. At some point I will be very bearish on silver, but that time is not now. The price of silver on a mathematical level tells me this might be one of the greatest investments in the history of the world and thus it's been my choice for top investment. You can say I have grown to love it over the years.

Many people see this gain over the last nine months to be up way too much and by using the math strategies I like it seems we are only getting close to being up way too much as the $48.36 level which the long term fibonacci has confirmed a breakout test on two different occasions seems extremely likely to occur this spring or early summer.

The previous longterm range was between $8.00 and $20.00 for a 150% bottom to top move. 150% again from twenty takes us to that significant fifty dollar level. The length of the rally to get nicely above 100% only occurred in a few months which is not normal and this should give alerts for something brewing pretty fast. You could be living in a cave and have access to the silver charts and realizing somethings going on this world with these solid up moves. Because this is going really fast this tells me we are entering such massive levels that it might be best advised to buckle your seat belts.

If you compare 70s low/high levels with todays you can see that the prices have been suppressed for some time. The low back in the 70s was in the early part of the decade at $1.25 and the low from this break was $3.97 at the end of 2001. Therefore my question would be "Is it safe to say that during the last three decades of the 20th century inflation was 217.6%?" (3.97/1.25) I know for certain it is easily much greater than that and thus the only factor on this debate is only leading to how much greater it is above 200%. CPI says from 1971 to 2001 has 337% gains and if we go by that level and by using this standard we are the $9.27 silver using the 1970s levels. If we were to look back in time to the 70s, it seems as if fair value was over $20.00 per ounce. As Mike Maloney mentioned in his book that when we went to large levels at the end of the 70s bull market we had a chance to back the currency by gold and silver. Instead they choose not to and decided on raising interest locking higher debts and thus went on manipulating the precious metals. If $20.00 was fair for 1979 and we use a 337% rate increase on this number for inflation we come with $87 as fair value. When you add on that 337% is an incorrect rate from 2001 to 1971 with the CPI numbers being more a CP-LIE as well as variables for higher prices on the supply versus demand curve the fair value comes much greater than one hundred dollars per ounce.

If we use ShadowStats we can come up with around 650% inflation and this suggests that we would be a little over $5.00 based on the 70s levels and the fair value being over $150.00. It is not to fair to compare the 2001 lows with the 1971 lows because it seems more evident that it was a fair bigger bargain in 2001 than it was in 1971. For The Silver price at $4.00 in 2011 is like being able to buy silver in 1971 at fifty cents maybe.

The breakout patterns within' the charts are looking very close to signify that we are in line with the 1970s as far as price action is concerned which can give us guidelines to previous technical direction. We know for certain that a move of 700% in a year is possible because it happened before. I've heard all the stories from people about "The Hunts" and how they cornered the market trying to tell us that the move was not real. The price was real and the market stayed above $30 for many straight days and weeks and these moves can only happen when there are something big to trigger such an event. When I ask myself if there is anything big enough to trigger this again I'll chuckle for a little bit and only have to consider millions and millions of people waking up to how currency is created can be such an event. The mayan calendar co-incidentally is at a point in time where changes are to occur quick and fast that would take us to a new world and what will not happen if that is correct is the same old antics we have endured for many decades.

However with all this being said, $25 is possible. I think this whole option put deal is nothing more than a scare tactic of lies like the 1980-82 Hunt Brothers deal. They put out one million dollars (Oh no, its hard to mine those digital numbers, LOL) and place it on the option and then they want to make investors switch their mindset from bullish to bearish. Meanwhile as the market goes lower to 30s (if it does) slowly but surely these big game players will sell portions of their options for profits. People will buy it for 40 cents a share and they will sell it after paying around a dime for it. The problem with $25 silver would be a massive disconnect in the physical market that would crush the comex and because of this I would venture there is a good chance will never go under $30 again. I expect a big move to happen where silver will lose over 50% and this could be from $140 to $70 or $700 to $250. I don't know, but if the price goes to $25 it will not be there long as long as the currency keeps getting debased. It's easier to bet on the long side than the short side on bull markets and I personally want nothing to do with making any decent size wagers yet for silver to go lower. If others choose to short silver through speculation or exit core positions based on price action then that is their choice and I would not make that one.