Silver news and Charts

10.31.2011

2011-10-31T15:03:00.000-07:00

This month seen a gain for the silver market as the pattern is now that of lower highs and lows on the monthly chart. Actually it is lower high and lower lower as it should be singular. Only one lower high and low occurred thus far.

It seems that one of two likely events are bound to happen and the first one is continued selling that will most likely test below $25.00 per ounce. This most likely cause a large disconnect with the paper and physical market.

Another scenario is the market finds a clear break above the $44 resistance mark and then not only works back to the $50 level, but goes wild making new highs.

The $50 level has been tested a few times as it was a test in 1980 and twice on the daily chart here in 2011. The more often resistance the more often it will take those levels out.

You can say all you want about the Hunt Brothers and the 1980 price doesn't matter because it was phony and it wasn't real. Yes it was real and it wasn't because of the Hunts that it went to $50.00.

You could say today's market and yesterdays and all the days markets over the last forty plus years are phony, because it is traded with margins and paper contract.

The currency is also phony!

10.24.2011

2011-10-24T15:31:00.001-07:00

2012, The Economy & Gold/Silver

As I write this article the date has just switched to 10.25.2011 CET and the new day is a beginning. That gives us 68 days until the new year begins and that year is 2012. For years there has been 2012 warnings on the internet regarding devistating things. People stated the economy was finished even four years ago and that we would have a depression for about five years.

Were these people correct? If we were going to have five bad years, then does it make sense that 2012 is going to be that final bad year and a true recovery to build from this? What more do we need to see on the final year?

I asked a lot of questions and I will answer with what is the most logical thing that can occur? The people are waking and this is the current trend. Occupy Wall Street (Occupy Earth) is in trend and this phase will at least help wake people up. From a higher percentage of people waking up and learning experiences from the Occupation the movement will only grow stronger. Michael Moore will most likely keep pushing towards his goals as will Peter Joseph and Jesse Ventura and Ron Paul and Alex Jones and do I need to keep naming these names when the movement is here.

At some point the one percentage elites will have to reply back to the currency creation creating explosive debt and this was and is guaranteed. It seems that a high percentage of people who want changes and are pissed off with the system do not understand debt is guaranteed. I have heard many people complain about how money is being or not being spent and as Peter Joseph has stated that it is nonsense to even have this style of monetary system. Yes there are many anti Peter Joseph people as well as anti zeitgeist. This is because Peter Joseph in so many words attacks capitalism. I don't use attacks, but others would seem to use attack as a word of reference. I refer to the term of "debate" instead and I feel his points are well presented.

Regardless of whether you like him or not it is obvious he is not going to stop working towards ending this slave based system and I will make a prediction right now that in 2012 Peter Joseph or some other signficant person towards a resource based economy will ask the likes of Ben Bernanke/President Obama about the money creation policies.

There was a question asked to Ben Bernanke in 2010 from "We Are Change" that was in regards to collapsing the economy where Ben repeated "I'm not doing any press." Ben also responded to "Is gold money" with a five second delay with the word "no." These are simple questions and therefore the perdiction is that the powers that be will be confronted with much more difficult questions that will most likely destroy this economy.

Therefore unless something drastic happens to deny the information on 2012 it is safe to assume the shift is on and there is not much time left. I am so secure with my knowledge of the economy and consciousness that a drop to $5.00 paper silver doesn't really surprise me much and I know this would crash the paper game just as much as $1,000 silver does. The end game is people losing confidence in fiat paper dollars and thus saying "No we don't want to play that game anymore" for it is russian roullette.

If you were to ask me three and a half years ago what the price of silver would be today, I would have responded with $100-$250 and Gold between $3,000-$5,000. This did not happen and the reasons for why I thought this was going to happen was in play, but I underestimated "the sheep" as they failed to wake through this time and many are still asleep. I am surprised that people still have time to prepare for the d-day (end of the dollar) with these lower prices. We are living a "dream" that "paper rectangles" have value and always accepted for trade. It's getting more realistic that the blows occur in the near future as 2012 is approaching.

For October it looks like the "Shocktober" will not happen unless something drastic happens in the next four trading days. This doesn't look probable right now, but the "Game" or "Paper Derivatives" which has been refered to others as the "house of cards" and when this house of cards falls has been known as "WTSHTF - When the shit hits the fan." It is inevitable that this is going to happen and calculating the "When's" can be very difficult.

For the last thousand days, I wake up and wonder if this is going to be the day when something big happens and "BOOM" thar she blows. Some days have been this way with Fukishima probably being the biggest and the August stock volatility showing big down moves coming. The crash of the stocks I refer to is the system on how stocks work. Not the equity values or the price of the Dow Jones. The crash (that is inevitable) for the stock market is ponzi attributes.

2012 should bring the year where a lot will be accomplished in 2001 9-11 truth. Just like I thinK Ben Bernanke maybe comfronted by Peter Joseph within' debt being 100% guaranteed, but having the likes of Obama, Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld be confronted by "the big boys" or even having the much needed trial. In the end if one single thing is going to be responsible for the collapse, this will be it. The masses finding out what really happened.

Another 2012 prediction is that "the truthers" are going to be blamed for the economic collapse and the high unemployment.

MARKET TECHNICAL ANALYSIS EXPECTED MID WEEK.

10.12.2011

2011-10-12T08:47:00.000-07:00

SLOW DOWN ON THE BLOG

It is not worth it anymore for me to put as much effort within' this blog. Maybe I got what it was that I asked for even though logic should have stated otherwise. This is good for my mayan calendar consciousness information showing how infinite this world is and how many options we have to get whatever task it is to be done.

I have heard people say that Ron Paul is our only way to get through this and then I think to myself, "really?" as if we only had one possible way of having this work and if that way does not work we are doomed for life. That makes me laugh.

Going back to what I asked for "spiritually" within' my "thoughts" was for me to be behind the radar and boy I didn't think I would be this much behind the radar. Last night I was listening to the SGT Report whom was talking about analysts like BrotherJohnF talking about the silver market. He did say "and more" which would refer to me, but it's very hard for "TheSilverLog" to be named in reference that much. In fact earlier this summer I replied to one of SGT reports videos and make an article on this and he even stated that he never even knew my channel existed. I was shocked when I heard that.

I was asked in a comment earlier today that stated "Sounds like you're taking Clive Maund's perspective on silver." This was interesting because I have only seen one of his articles as of ten minutes ago. I seen his new one because I figured since this was commented he made one. I pride myself in taking my own stance on things and in this copy cat world when I see one's style or methodologies that I think works then I try to work it within' my own methodology as I have no problem taking information done by some other source and ripping it apart. In fact I have been blocked from at least one Youtube channel because of this.

Therefore I have not seen one single piece on a source where somebody does things like taking one my charts and using it for their blogs or for their videos. Nor do I get anyone who asks me for some PNG files for their project as I don't get anyone who asks for things like this. Part of my strategy for doing these videos is showing what I am capable of producing and hoping some day some one will ask for work done that I can help out. This has not happened yet.

I have not seen one piece where my upside fibonacci calculation on Silver from the $4 to $8 levels and how they have manifested themselves on every level. I realize within' the comments of the video that are a few people that love the information that I get and I get so many great comments and ratio on the thumbs up/down. That is why I am not stopping doing these videos.

I guess you can say I have asked the universe to behind the radar if you will and if that is what I wanted, then that is what I got. This defies logic to why there hasn't been that many people who references my work and especially the upside levels that has the sequence of 4.00, 8.00, 10.47, 14.47, 20.94, 31.42, 48.36, 75.78..... as this sequence has been pretty much perfect within' Fibonacci analysis. But because of this I am going to want to keep it this way being under the radar.

I stated I was going to do less videos and the plan is to do a weekend video and I ended up doing a mid week video today and therefore I am not stopping not because the many great people on the channel who have expressed how much they love my channel and information but because of my methodology of doing these videos when they are needed. The reason I do not talk much about a resource based economy is because Peter Joseph does a damn good job that I can't even come close to doing as good and thus I leave it alone. There was a time in 2008 & 2009 I talked about fundamentals and news events, but Demcad and VisionVictory as just two people have done these things well, again I stopped doing it. There is not one person I have seen on this internet who can give the content that I give out. There is only one channel that I know of that will only show logarithmic charts and that is me. There is only channel that I know that expresses Fibonacci and that is me. There is only one channel that can understand the market volatility and that is me. There are several things that I provide that no one does. Therefore as long as that is the case and I still have some interest in doing so then I will.

10.05.2011 Paper versus Physical Silver

2011-10-05T14:18:00.001-07:00

PAPER VERSUS PHYSICAL SILVER

Both paper and physical silver rely on the comex pricing as of this post in early October 5, 2011. The free market for the paper game is the rules that are associated within' the brokers you are associated with and pretty much Wall Street. The free market in the physical game will use the comex price as a reference and then decide what premium to use from the spot price. Therefore the same chart you use like the one above is useful for both positions.

Physical is just that. Forms of physical are 999 fine rounds/bars that are at least 99.9% pure silver (hens the 999), can be in many forms of Stirling (925, 92.5%) and practically all countries in this world had silver between 40% to 92.5% in their circulated coins in the sixties and earlier. There are other forms like jewelry and the category misc. where the value is set on the scrap melt value as well as any numismatic value.

People often call SLV and futures to be that of paper and I don't see why we would. Computers have taken over and at least with paper you have something that has some scientific value. Silver and Gold are universal within' metals on the periodic table and therefore it is not paper at all but digits and data sets in computerized technology. Maybe you can request to get paper shares of your SLV and they may comply to your wish(maybe) and if you ask for some bars or coins, you ain't getting any. Therefore you are only getting numbers on a database.

When you sell silver coins or bars on the physical level you can sell for many different things. You can sell your silver for fiat cash or paper rectangles or you can sell it for gold or food or a car or real estate and I could keep going on with products and services they can be used for within' barter. If silver is not a common trade in the economy one is in (like the current) then sometimes you have to trade them for paper rectangles first. Therefore if you bought silver for a total for $4,000 years ago for your lot and sell it today for $12,000 then you turn around and buy a car with the $12,000 then you turned your investment into a car during the tenure you were holding the physical.

When you sell SLV Shares or futures contracts or even shares of miners then you can only sell for the currency level and the funds are sent to your account. If you want physical delivery of your paper rectangles then you have to demand delivery some how by going to bank or ATM. The point is you have no choice but to turn what your silver is worth into something else in a currency collapse. If SLV goes to 210.43 a share when you cash out then you need to turn this into something real before the currency dies. If you cash out of SLV and get yourself what you need to survive and thrive in real goods and you do this successfully then congratulations but it will most likely cause headaches when you have a bank holiday threat.

09.30.2011 Quarter End

2011-09-30T15:37:00.001-07:00

OCCUPY WALL STREET

You can help fight for freedom by joining the movement at an Occupy location near you.

You can also donate food, clothing or any other tangible asset the protesters can use to the following address:

The UPS Store
Re: Occupy Wall Street
118A Fulton St. #205
New York, NY 10038

To learn more on Occupy Wall Street please google and/or youtube search the title. This movement is growing and the more whom participate the more likely it is freedom will reign. Thank you for all whom have helped within' this project.

09.26.2011 VOLATILITY

2011-09-26T13:31:00.000-07:00

This chart gives me reason why this is the bottom that will either hold on future tests or not even test again like many other snapback rallies from monster sell offs which we had here. The reason I say more reason for such an ideal is because of where the two fibonacci marks are on this chart. The upper one is almost at $39.00 and this was a major level to say the least as low thirty-nine is affected in many ways with price action in Silver. The one below this is at 33.41 which is only seventeen cents away from that big fibonacci mark on the chart below. Unless the shit has hit the fan this market is going to take time to heal. If the shit has hit the fan then its going to go parabolic and the things you will see no one can imagine. I don't think the shit has hit the fan soon, but it is damn close which might make this "THE BOTTOM" but I am not calling that other than it's a good time to make the guess.

Silver market today was down forty cents or about one and a third percent after the market was down 16.2% and boom the market goes up higher. The move up makes me sick as does the entire move lower and the fact these movements are occurring within' our financial system. The snap back was very fast and very common to happen in these markets which can make day traders a lot of fiat digital dollars or lose a lot of them if on the incorrect side of the move. I enjoy playing games some times and anyone who is out here timing these wild volatile moves are insane or amazing at this game. Those whom study and put more of their energy and time into something will succeed better than those whom do not. Many stops got crushed last night when people were watching their Sunday night movie before they go to bed and they find out in the morning they got stopped out at 27.00 as they look at a 29.00 price on the screen that keeps climbing. This frustrates me because those whom play this game should be aware that this game is designed in such a way where for every winner there is there has to be a loser somewhere in the game so if you want to win you have to get good so you can compete with the best including supercomputers called High Frequency Trading. Final rant note before I get to volume is the Occupy Wall Street which is getting very little if any MSM coverage that has only been available on youtube. These are the kinds of revolutions that I expected to occur during this time frame and I have a funny feeling (intuition) that when it is all said and done, this movement will be very successful. My advice is to spread the message and if you have the balls to participate then you are a hero in my book. It is now obvious that being the protester whom is peaceful with PG signs and PG music to be in harms way and that has been the case. I have not seen any violence yet from protesters which is shocking because there are always hooligans, but these sort of things have to go on for the dollar to collapse and humanity to start working to a recovery from an evil debt based system. People will join the flock and this will grow. Weather does become a concern however as it is late September and only a month or so until the weather gets very nasty.

As far as volume is concerned, we are seeing this kind of manipulation play out and when you consider the may top to have volume as you see on the above chart and the volume now to be higher, but nothing like it was before shows me that the original down move was heavily caused within' the SLV instruments and used by the big bankers because they are the only ones whom can cause markets to rise up or down this big in a relative short period of time. The move that just happened must have higher volume on the Comex market? I don't know the figures, but I would make a calculated wager that it was at least as heavy as the start of May if not bigger. Also again done by wall street or world banks.

When I created these bands I made them to be a tougher challenge than the conventional bollinger bands give. In my opinion its a cry or a half ass moved that takes price action to the bollinger bands and over the the last few months I have used these bands they have worked outstanding. These were designed based on price action and volatility in a nice but simple math formula. What I have been saying with these bands is that when you reach one of them things can get wild. Usually you get either a sideways correction of some sort or off correction in the opposite direction. However the other possibility is the market keeps going in the same direction and when it expands these bands like it did here this means we are on radar for this getting of control and it did. This makes 2% moves turn into 5% moves fairly fast and so on. At one point before I went to bed last night the retracement of the band was -30% which is an insane level. Movements are getting larger now and the $26 low change level was a perfect hit once again and it was easy to tell it was going to test it this week (or soon) because of how it reacted on the breakdown of 33.58. Same thing is now true that we are almost guaranteed a test of the next fibonacci level which is $31.92 which co-insides with the long term upside level of $31.42. What is important is to hold 38.2% from the new lows earlier today and if that is the case we can state this has a good chance of being a pierce below.

The roller coaster has already begun. There is no more saying "It is going to be a roller coaster" but no, "IT IS A ROLLERCOASTER" right now and maybe I can not say it is going to come, but rather we have only entered the second gear and this baby still has fuel. For those times people have wondered when the sh@$% will hit the fan, well the answer might just be sooner than you think. The currency market and derivative markets need to crash and there is no way in hell this will happen under low or normal volatility.

Shorter term the movements on this has managed to move to where we were during the April time frame and therefore most likely the odds favor this level to be taken out. Last time when the volatility started it was originally showing gains as it went what seem thought to be out of control moving from $40 to $50 in no time and the plummet. Well maybe this time it is reverse where the original move is a down move which is followed by an even bigger move the opposite direction some time later on? I don't know, but this type of pattern has been on my mind for quite some time now as my January prediction for Silver had the market going to the 50 area with a pretty big crash and long correction through time which would originally have a fake move higher, followed by a fake move lower followed by the dollar collapsing and silver breaking $100. It is playing out currently how I thought and more aggressive than I had thought.

MORE COMING LATER THROUGHOUT THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

09.23.2011

2011-09-23T16:20:00.000-07:00

WEEKEND POST. CLICK ON IMAGES TO ENLARGE OR TO VIEW THE MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES

09.21.2011

2011-09-21T14:15:00.000-07:00

The daily chart shows how wild today's action was and it had absolutely nothing to do with its actual underline material which is the tangible silver. Bank of America is moving closer to a collapse and this is one of the steps I expect to occur. The banking collapse must and will happen and probably sooner than later. I and many others have spent countless amount of time explaining how this debt based monetary system is very root at it's evil because of how money is created but the humans waking up to this information and other related events like 911Truth movements makes people not so happy that the government would want us humans to be majorly in debt and thus reliant on fiat currency. That is the truth and banking is the primary cause. People talk so happily about quitting smoking or drinking and I have to think banking may have more critical damaging long term health factors. If people quit banking by getting most to all of their paper rectangles outta there then this would help the world by killing the banks. To learn more on how money is created please GOOGLE SEARCH - Zeiteist Federal Reserve - and a five part video series by NullClothing will appear. That video can explain more on currency creation. As far as the monthly chart we can see a lower high and if we break 32.32 then will have our first lower low on this chart. I've been saying that maybe silver goes down with stocks in the paper game and that Silver paper shares have to collapse and these events make the charts move wildly in both directions.

FEEL GOOD NEW STORY PART 2 - MR. GIE IS CONSDIERING EARLY RETIREMENT THIRTY HOURS AFTER GETTING LIFE BACK TOGETHER!

Read post below if you have not read this one yet.

09.22.2011 1600 EST - Sum Gie has just sold his put options that were purchased before the market closed at $3.20 per share that cost only 37 cents at yesterday's close. His vision on the silver market was prestige and should be awarded for his efforts. This meant his portfolio which started yesterday morning at $5,900 was worth $624,289.55 and is very close to having enough to retire. He realizes being a 25 year old person he will need over 125 years worth of money to retire with as Sum Gie feels he can live to 150 now that he has cleaned up his life. With 3% average inflation per year and a required amount of $200,000 needed per year that would equate to almost 262 million dollars. Therefore making around eight hundred percent per day would take about eight business days to achieve this lifestyle. You have to feel good about this Gie who struggled with not only gambling addictions but actually making decisions that can lose in the game like hitting his 14 against a dealer five in blackack. Sum Gie realizes he can not play these games of chance while risking these large sums hoping for luck. Its already clear that no one can win at a casino other than the casino itself because every game is pre calculated. Now Sum Gie is investing and making very solid long term choices without the urge to gamble and therefore his solid long term choice is to have an option for tomorrow on the Dow Jones to go higher because it is down too much. He found out that the options expired today and will take some time for new ones to come up and all Sum Gie said was "Oh". Therefore he thought about it and thought about being a little more safe with his investment and because Mr. Gie called his bank, "Bank or America" and felt good about the company and how safe they were. He decided to buy October call options that gives him a whopping month to get his retirement in order. The investment choice was for a call option on Bank of America (closed at 6.04) and the bank advised him to be more diversified. Therefore instead of having just one option, Mr. Gie has three call options. $7.00, $8.00 and $9.00 costings 24, 8 and 3 cents per share respectively for the expiry of October 21 with one third of his portfolio in each investment. That is over $200,000 of equity in each investment. He says October is always a good month for stocks and what better stock than the trusted Bank of America? He feels that there is a good chance BAC will go to $13.00 per share by the end of the month that his investment is pretty wise. Mr. Gie however did withdrawal his original investment of $5,900 from his brokerage account so that he can put food on the table this weekend and buy some more expensive white powder. It makes all of us at FakeNewsPress.Fake smile when we see feel good stories like that this. Gambling addiction can be tough and that is why we have to applaud Mr. Gie for his amazing choices.

FEEL GOOD NEWS STORY - MR. GIE QUITS GAMBLING AND GETS HIS LIFE BACK TOGETHER!

Published by - FakeNewsPress.Fake 09.21.2011 16:00 EST

Most news stories are full of gloom and doom that does not bring hope to the world. That is why today on a day where the stock market once again falls we can give you a good feel good story for a gentleman whom has struggled with drug and gambling addictions all his life and he has been trying to get his life together and we think today he has. Once upon a time in a valley somewhere in the United States Mr. Sum Gie has had to deal with the difficulties in life and he said this summer he would stop gambling because of how much it has hurt his family. The season began and this hardcore football betting fan put $1,000 on the Broncos to defeat the Raiders on the spread and he lost. This meant the family was living on what scrubs they could find around the house and it was very slim to say the least. Sum Gie was really sure Kyle Orton was the real deal and felt he could win it big and he turned out to be wrong. Sum Gie did well a few years ago when he started with $50 and won nine straight underdog bets in sports making his bankroll go from $50 to $78,144.54 and then he lost it all the next week when he lost his first game as he always said "Double or nothing every time". His bankroll was gone and he had to some job traveling the streets with a backpack for weeks for some reason and he promised to never make that betting mistake again. This weekend Sum decided not to play the football games and instead he gathered up as much money doing some things so that he can make better financial decisions and instead of gambling it away he can make solid investments that will secure a good long term security blanket. After somehow making his money traveling the city streets with a backpack Sum Gie gathered enough money to start investing. He started his investments this morning and decided to take the last $5,900 he had and bought put options on Citigroup stocks and after he made this investment the market went his direction and the price of his put option went from three cents to twelve cents. This is for an out of the money put option for options that expire at the end of this week. The investor in one afternoon turned his portfolio from $5,900 to $22,500 after fees and commissions and after he sold his C Put option Sum Gie bought a call option for TLT bonds that was also out of the money for 25 cents a share which managed to get up to 99 cents at the close which is when Mr. Gie sold. This meant his $22.500 rose to $81,750 by the end of the day for options also expiring on Friday. This gain was well over 1,000% for the day and a very solid investment. Sum Gie really wants to give up the gambling lifestyle and keep making solid investments. Sum Gie took his $81,750 and put it all on an option play for SLV which closed today at $38.59 and took another out of the money play with a $38.00 Option Put that only cost him 37 cents. When asked today about his solid investing mojo and new stable mind set he said “Boooo Yaaaawww, Silver gowin' downnnn tommoraw and this babys gonna cash and i'll be a millionare by the end of the week. Booo Yaaawww” When asked later about how he felt gambling on sports rather than investing in the markets Sum Gie said “Yeah, Invasting is my thing. No more gambling for me.”

09.19.2011

2011-09-19T07:38:00.000-07:00

09.17.2011

2011-09-17T07:49:00.000-07:00

09.14.2011

2011-09-14T16:17:00.000-07:00

715pm EST/0118 CET Update-I'll be browsing the web this hour. These are my findings so far.:

This is an interesting chart as it shows us how private investors or the every day Joe is picking up silver. This piece comes from Two Shocking Silver Charts dated back in January of this year with the other chart showing eagles sales breaking out in 2008. This was because the information to how money is created surfaced on the internet and that got people into buying gold and silver. It makes sense on the timing of the issue where we seen the market retrace in the Spring as the comex levels have been crushed. On the links on the right hand side of this blog has a link for the inventories and they are getting hammered.

This image was found at The Daily Bail and it shows an interesting view of the money creation. Sometimes I like to laugh at the situation because in the end the fiat currency is going to die and I wonder what will Ben Bernanke or the person whom replaces Ben is going to say when this happens. What would happen today if Ben Bernanke was forced with a question on how debt is 100% guaranteed to come through and the measures that have taken places has done so in a violent way within the global banking sectors. In my view he has not answered any difficult questions yet and the mainstream media have made sure they have been easy. In my view Ron Paul has been very easy on Mr. Bernanke and I commend and applaud Ron Paul for what he is doing as these tasks are not easy when you are as powerful in culture like Dr. Paul. I say easy on Ben because his toughest question was "Is Gold Money?" ''Youtube Link'' and Bernack could not answer his question for several seconds and his answer was no. Bernanke was confronted by We Are Truth ''Youtube Link'' he was asked the question about the 2008 Billderberg meeting and Ben privately said he was not doing any press today. He was also asked when he will apologize for destroying the US economy and that would be a start for a tough question. I look forward to Ben facing harder questions because grade school is over and the questions get harder!

09.12.2011

2011-09-12T14:30:00.000-07:00

09.08.2011

2011-09-08T11:55:00.003-07:00

Not much for me to say at this point but I will point out that this is the second straight week support has been found at the 18 period average highs and the forth week in or around that average with four straight weeks of the same resistance levels between $43 and $44 dollars. Its consolidating the large $42 level pretty big and a massive hold above $38.11 previous support level for it has not been below that mark since August 11 and has been above that level every day since July 13 which means the last day where the highest point was below $38.11 was July 12. That is strong and now we have completed over ten straight days of staying above $40.00 and the last day where the highest point of the day was below $40.00 was August 15th. This seems very poised to breakout and the daily chart on the video below shows an ascending triangle from the $42.00 level being resistance and the uptrend line shown.

09.06.2011 Swiss Franc Volatility

2011-09-06T10:22:00.000-07:00

Making of a Spreadsheet

2011-09-01T17:03:00.000-07:00

Note - 948pm EST an error was fixed on the code below. All good to go now

STEPS TO MAKE THE SPREADSHEET BELOW:

-Insert Data. Date in column A Open, High, Low and Close in C,D,E,F for 100 periods. If you have them together then you can move one over or cut and paste as needed

COLUMN L1 - "MINIMUM"

COLUMN L2 - "MAXIMUM"

COLUMN L4 - "MAN LOW"

COLUMN L5 - "MAN HIGH"

COLUMN M1 - =IF((M4=0);MIN(C1:F100);M4)

COLUMN M2 - =IF((M5=0);MAX(C1:F100);M5)

COLUMN I1 - =(D1-E1)/E1

COPY AND PASTE I1 TO I100

COLUMN J18 - =(I18*18+I17*17+I16*16+I15*15+I14*14+I13*13+I12*12+I11*11+I10*10+I9*9+I8*8+I7*7+I6*6+I5*5+I4*4+I3*3+I2*2+I1)/171*3

OOLUMN K18 - =-((1*J18+1)-1)/(1*J18+1)

COLUMN N18 - =(F18*18+F17*17+F16*16+F15*15+F14*14+F13*13+F12*12+F11*11+F10*10+F9*9+F8*8+F7*7+F6*6+F5*5+F4*4+F3*3+F2*2+F1)/171

COLUMN O18 - =(E18*18+E17*17+E16*16+E15*15+E14*14+E13*13+E12*12+E11*11+E10*10+E9*9+E8*8+E7*7+E6*6+E5*5+E4*4+E3*3+E2*2+E1)/171

COLUMN P18 - =(D18*18+D17*17+D16*16+D15*15+D14*14+D13*13+D12*12+D11*11+D10*10+D9*9+D8*8+D7*7+D6*6+D5*5+D4*4+D3*3+D2*2+D1)/171

COLUMN L18 - =O18*K18+O18

COLUMN M18 - =P18*J18+P18

COLUMN Q18 - =(M2/M1)^0.382*M1

COLUMN R18 - =(M2/M1)^0.618*M1

COLUMN Q19 - =Q18

COLUMN R19 - =R18

Copy and Paste Q19.R20 down to 100

Copy and Paste L18.P18 down to 100

You are done and can make the spreadsheet with the candle being C18.F100 and the indicators being L18.R100

08.31.2011

2011-08-31T08:45:00.000-07:00

08.30.2011

2011-08-30T11:53:00.001-07:00

08.28.2011

2011-08-28T14:02:00.003-07:00

08.24.2011

2011-08-24T13:39:00.001-07:00

BLOG WILL BE SHORT AND SWEET UNTIL MONDAY.

Below image is 1m chart on the silver market at lunch time. Notice how fibonacci plays this by the book so well

BREAKING NEWS: MARGIN HIKE ON GOLD REUTERS NEWS STORY

MSM ARTICLE HEADLINE. YOU SCARED YET? THEY WANT YOU TO BE!

Click on the image to enlarge it

These Qday charts show us two different fibonacci points with the lowest lows we have at $32.32 as well as the current level $37.02. The current level tells us that $39.62 is a must hold for the breakout from the $37 mark to be legit. Therefore it is conducting it's test now. The second fibonacci point from the $32.32 levels tells us we hit the first fib level keeping the trend bullish. That mark is $39.23 and the silver price action traded under this level for only a couple of minutes making it a perfect hit. This number is the logarithmic version and would make a calculated wager that only 5-10% of people use this over linear. The linear number was $39.67 and therefore the log defeated the linear. Some people think that these numbers work because everybody sees these numbers and not many seen this one including myself. When the price action dropped large today I thought to myself that i was missing a fibonacci mark and the 32/50 is the prime one with the 37/44 the shorter term. The one in between this is 32/44 and therefore 32/50 is holding above 38.2% ($38.11) and thus neutral. The bottom rally from the April lows has us cautiously bullish and the other one is looking to become bearish in a neutral state. All of this is within' the more longer term fibonacci marks of 17/50, 8/50 and 4/50 which has us very bullish for good reason. The five day moving average's first test of the rising 5 MA was a sudden failure and thus we are in an intermediate term bear market until the trend changes.

08.23.2011

2011-08-23T13:40:00.001-07:00

DAILY CHART ANALYSIS

The Reason I am bullish with Silver extends to this chart which is the gold to silver ratio. The pattern I am noticing is that the fibonacci support level is now being resiatance and looking to test its lower fibonacci mark with a ratio of around 42 to 1. Normally the ratio goes lower when the metals go higher and that is why I am bullish as well as a $42 Fib test support after spectacular $38.11 confirmation and the trend line hit that we have seen today. It does seem is if the dollar is a collapsing soon and I stand by my view of anything under $78 is an amazing bargain which means as long as we are in times today with spot below $70/oz then it is really never a mistake to buy if you are unsure about market timing. The worst feeling in the world is trying to time a price that never reaches. Down below is the original post from 450pm eastern time with a lot of ranting

posted 30 minutes before market close:

Hello. I just back from being out all day and have now seen that the market fell to $41.52 which undercut the $42.25 area that was mentioned. Whenever you have higher volatility then you can expect to have larger under and over cuts of a big level. The $33.58 fibonacci level in May was undercut by a little over a dollar and that could have been cut even further given its volatility then. With that being said, I am guessing the market is near the five day moving average and I sure as heck would not be a seller now as my thinking for part of the afternoon was "Idiot me, only two purchases during this sweet retracement and I set my goals to have a confirmation break both above $38.11 and the direction from the fifty chart to give me an indicator. Both have succeeded so far and I have yet to buy on strength as my last purchase was over a month ago back in early July. Therefore I was not happy thinking that I didn't buy a few weeks ago and rather wanted to wait for lower prices of confirmation. I have learned that patience is a virtue and having no patience or too much patience is never that good. No patience means you execute a big game theory decision without taking more time to go over the risk/reward data. Being too patient is pretty much scared to pull the gun on a play because you are still somewhat unsure. An example of this was the 2008 and crash where silver fell from $19 to $8 very fast in a couple of months from July to October. The not being so patient was making your big purchase at $16.00 and to some degree $14.00 which I thought at that time was "THE BOTTOM!" Having more patience would have resulted in getting the fiboancci level at $11.26 which as the 61.8% fiboancci retracement from the $4.00 lows and the then $21.35 highs. I said at the start of this paragraph how big moves can easily over cut the areas and this was a sure example of this as the bottom was $8.46 or another 25% more to the down side. Continuing on the buying on strength came afterwards and that was buying between $12-$15 and then again over $20. What i find funny are those people whom state not to buy on weakness succeeded in my opinion then from fourteen dollars and lower. After all if the smart people who bought when the confirmation shows me its a buy signal at $14.00 then those who bought at that level and all the way down got in cheaper and thus were the winners. It's important to know that if you are buying on weakness that the longer term trend is in your favor and if it is not then it can get you in trouble. If you thought in 1985 that the dollar has lost so much value that it can not keep losing its value and you decided to go hardcore on bonds or paper rectangles then you got yourself in trouble. I kind of hope to be unlucky and over the next few days of planning I wake up and see $52.87 (+7.85)on the CNBC screen in a morning where I finally see that kind of day I have been waiting for. I was kind of hoping to miss the boat at this level because I feel as if I am getting over patient with this purchase. Time will tell. Its 458pm EST and the market closes in 17 minutes as I write this. Charts coming later this afternoon.

08.22.2011

2011-08-22T08:40:00.000-07:00

The final candle that appeared on this quarter day chart (six hour) was that of a hammer formation. This is where the price action sells off at the start of the session and then manages to get back pretty much all of its losses. The price action opened at 12pm France time and 6am New York time which had the price at $43.81 which seen the price plummet down to $42.52 and the close of this chart shows us that we are at $43.77 and pretty much where we were six hours ago. The trend is having the price action move up towards the upper bands which shows the market is over extended or over bought. Just because this is the case does not mean that the market will sell. Rather if the market does not sell of or even correct through time that the gains we will see should be greater than normal as we are attempting to go parabolic on this particular time frame. If this again goes through this could mean $2.00 moves in an hour kind of action and when this transpires then we have blow off tops that could be around the corner waiting for us which is common when markets get over extended. Overall the secret is to hold above $42.25. Originally it was to hold above $38.11 and this has been done successful. Buyers and in control with this rising five day average and enjoy the day. Be back later

08.19.2011

2011-08-19T14:17:00.000-07:00

Even though there is no confirmation break past the $42.00 level on the price action as of yet this chart is giving nice signals that it wants to extend its gains. I loved how both lines recently met each other and since then they have been moving in opposite directions as the direction from the fifty day low is now breaking resistance and showing a nice uptrend pattern of higher highs and higher lows. We have had months to buy at these suppressed prices below $40.00 per ounce and that level is now over. Congrats to those whom did. We have had years to be able to buy silver at suppressed prices below $100/oz and we are still in this phase. Although for now I like any purchase under $75/oz to be a major long term steal we still are in this atmosphere. It is a tremendous advantage to know how currency is created when making investment decision that regard currency. More late Saturday Night

I'LL TRY AND GET SOME CHARTS UP THIS WEEKEND AND THE MAIN ONE MIGHT BE THE DIRECTION FROM THE FIFTY DAY. For weeks I've been waiting for a confirmation break on this level which seems is the case on this methodology. This indicates to me there is a great chance that either $42 or $41 maybe good support this week which would give this the wheels ready not only to have another $50 test, but a chance to make new all time highs for the first time in over three decades. For those who've been stacking, keep it up and for the paper trades the profit taking may start to ensure at 43.50 to 44.00 as it is likely to make a higher high from its previous one of 42.21 that has a nice gain.

In the meantime, I will be talking about this Historical Silver/Gold Link most likely on Saturday and this is a great page with amazing analysis going back to 1981.

08.18.2011

2011-08-18T07:45:00.000-07:00

I do not think there is much need to comment on the Dow Jones chart. The video below has silver covered and there will not be a silver chart until after 11pm New York time. However, these two charts on the Dow Jones show me things very clearly to clarify the August moves we are facing to be light and thus watch out after Labour Day. Long term if the 10,500 area does not hold I am looking at one hell of a failed move that confirmed that the selling 2008/9 was a failure! Oh wait! What? YES, something has to fail and thus a fast move taking us at least to the old highs at 14.2K or the lows at 6.5K with possible breaks. On the short term time frame there is two 38.2% hits as I look at this where it was resistance prior from the July highs and since then it has been having a hard time with the 10,950 area. If this area does not hold, then this tells us the move that makes the secondary levels is a failure which means another test of the more longer term fibonacci support level. It's unfortunate many peoples life savings are forced into this Russian roulette game!

08.17.2011

2011-08-17T07:11:00.000-07:00

08.16.2011

2011-08-16T14:39:00.001-07:00

As long as the silver market is not doing that much and especially if it is not yet the day after Labour day then the posts will be lighter. Today will be no exception. The market is doing fairly well but is in a technical indecision with bias to the up side rather than that over down side. Long term the answer is simple only because of the asset class we are pricing this is in which is fiat debt notes and USA federal reserve notes to be exact. With this all said it is still holding the key fibonacci support level at around thirty-eight as well as a nice uptrend line. The $42 level break is what this will seem to come down to. Because $38.00 has been support over a longer primary trend being higher then it seems likely the lift off will occur soon. Below shows the direction from the fifty day high and low. The two levels hit up with each other and the buyers from these charts are currently in control of this market.

The final image for today's post brings us to the retracement for the price action on multiple time frames. For each time frame it takes the highest and lowest point over 100 periods and then with the current price level the level for where silver is on retracement from 0% to 100% is placed. This chart allows us to see which time frames are bullish and to what degree. Above 61.8% is bullish and the 73.6% is the number it needs to be above to be very bullish. The two shortest term charts are the ones that are keeping us down right now and this is a good sign for the future. The following levels take the highs and lows for the period time below:

Short1-25 Days
Short2-100 days
Medium3-300 days
Medium4-100 weeks
Medium5- 100 months
Long6 - 25 Years
Long7 - 50 Years

08.15.2011

2011-08-15T14:44:00.000-07:00

This market is playing by the book fibonacci thus far as the move from its breakout lows of $17.78 and top near $50 came right down to this fibonacci line seen on the screen. Since that point it found resistance at the first level from the $50 highs and the lows it just created and therefore came back to the previous support level and that mark held. Then after it broke through the $38.11 area it topped at $42.25 which was the second fibonacci mark which then followed a move back to $38.11. The next target past $42.25 is the $50 high and it looks like it will at least test the $42.00 mark soon as it is showing great strength. The breakout from this fifty moving average is phenomenal after it was support for quite some time. This fifty day average is front weighted but the regular fifty day average doesn't look that much differently.

08.12.2011

2011-08-12T14:37:00.001-07:00

08.11.2011

2011-08-11T13:10:00.000-07:00

The blog will remain very light throughout the month of August up to and maybe even after Labor Day. What I need to see happen is the exciting market action to pick up. Usually when I say it, it pretty much does however until either a break below $32 OR a CONFIRMATION break above $42.25. We have already confirmed that we are breaking $38.01 (or we did) and now we are signing of the possible failed moves. Therefore if you are gambling short term that $38.11 area will hold, I don't know what to say. You might and I hope you do but I don't know anymore. I am still waiting to buy on the confirmation or the break below a key level. Take care everyone.

08.10.2011

2011-08-10T11:23:00.000-07:00

1444 EST - With the Rally in silver today and the fake call option picked yesterday at this point with the cost at 61 cents to sell, I have no choice but to make the casino style strategy in selling this for a fake fiat profit (double fake) and I will have more on that later on.

1501 EST - Most likely if the market goes higher another PUT for around 30 cents will be added in the fake game. What I like about the trends on the overall market is silver & gold are showing great confirmation that they are holding a stock market fall. Not confirmation, but fact actually but what is confirmed is that this fall has a much higher increased chance of being massive and the biggest collapse in a short period during any of our life times (with the exception maybe of some older seniors whom went through the 30s.) This should mean with vacations and the normal calm before the storm that we have at least two or three weeks of lower volatility and at some point shortly after Labor Day that we will have that storm and the move sizes we have today will be lighter than they will become.

1615EST - Not adding to the PUTS and will be back after 8pm With the next update.

08.09.2011

2011-08-09T13:22:00.000-07:00

If you panicked about the stock market going down, well guess what you have an easier decision on your plan. Maybe it is hard for you to pull it and if that's the case I don't know why you are in it. Maybe you think its going higher and good luck. I will be back later.

LETS CONTINUE WITH THE FAKE OPTIONS GAME AND WITH THE MARKET SELL-OFF THIS MEANT TO SELL ANOTHER PUT ON THE CLOSE. THEREFORE THE FOLLOWING WOULD BE THE FAKE PORTFOLIO

5 CALLS AT $44 COSTING 0.27 CURRENTLY PRICED AT 6 CENTS

1 CALL AT $42 COSTING 0.23 CURRENTLY PRICED AT 11 CENTS

1 CALL AT $40 COSTING 0.29 JUST ADDED

WITH THE $35 PUTS AT 0.84 THEN ANOTHER ONE WOULD BE SOLD AND THE ABOVE CALL OPTION HAS JUST BEEN PURCHASED ON A FAKE LEVEL

3 PUTS AT $35 COSTING 0.39 CURRENTLY PRICED AT 84 CENTS

1 SOLD AT 84 CENTS (+115%)
1 SOLD AT 76 CENTS (+94.9%)

The added calls are more of insurance or hedges because if the market does not sell off then it will go higher most likely and this can cause profits. If this call option doesn't win then I can maybe start to get 200-300% gains in the remaining 3 PUT plays. Again this is a casino game and I am treating it as such and thus just documenting what seems obvious in +/- terms.

08.08.2011

2011-08-08T08:38:00.000-07:00

1203 EST UPDATE - As I write this the price of silver is $3925 from its highs of $3934 a minute ago and the period closed three minuets ago at $3918. Also my 1141 update had the price at $3949 and it was $3910 a minute before the chart closed the quarter session. Therefore the move went from these points lasting a little over an hour 3947-3851-3957-3918-3933*(not done yet). This is volatility

1141AM EST UPDATE - Market is volatile, but less volatile as expected and these are my expectations. Don't get me wrong, it's moving along pretty good throughout the session, but I was expecting a three dollar day from top to bottom today and so far that has not transpired. There was some selling that occurred today from 10:36 to 10:59 New York time that brought the fixings from $3947 (100oz) to $3851 or a drop of about a full dollar per ounce. Since then it has come off its lows and it is currently at $3949 and therefore back to where it came from showing us a failed move.

08.05.2011 - Mid Term Capitulation

2011-08-05T09:12:00.001-07:00

BRIAN SHANNON'S ANALYSIS ON OCTOBER 10, 2008. NOTICE THE INTRA DAY MOVEMENTS AND THE 5-15M TIME FRAMES HOW THIS MARKET PLAYED OUT

The Market did bottom there for a days and had one intermediate term and long term leg lower and that was it. Markets do not stay in one direction the entire way through. The video below is the current video of what is going on at lunchtime.

Yesterday was short term capitulation for silver and mid term today for silver. Today is closing in on long term for the Dow Jones. On 07.28 I announced that I was making a phony options play for both CALLS & PUTS. It was close to selling a call a few days ago and I didn't. Yesterday was close to selling a PUT and I didn't and the first 100% level has just come. I could get 76 cents per unit as I stated on that previous date... "As of the close on 07/28/2011 the SLV options for August show me a $44 call for twenty-seven cents a pop and a put for $35 and thirty-nine cents a pop"

This is only one sale of the five that I WOULD HAVE BOUGHT had I decided to take a CALCULATED GAMBLE! To continue my CALCULATED GAMBLE I will buy one call option for 23 cents on 42 per share for SLV. This is of course fake, but another leg down would show FAKE PROFIT in this GAME we call equity trading.

Be back later

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE

08.04.2011

2011-08-04T10:24:00.000-07:00

What would be ideal is if the lines would connect to each other and that would give us another two or so percent down. The buyers are still in control according to this chart because their line is above the sellers line and because the sellers were in control for a violent short term period and it has not broke much resistance this could be going sideways or neutral. It is anyone's guess when you look at this on a blind level. This chart is a measure to see who is in control of this market. It can also be used for buy/sell signals and its normal for there to be fights in a boxing match and this game is like a boxing match and the game is market trading. Bears versus Bulls and after the bulls dished a huge nine month rally the bears had a decent short term move. I always say a little of things is bigger than one big thing and the many days and weeks breaking the teenage price barrier was bigger than the thirty plus percent move lower. The Bulls took over by bringing the market from it's July lows of $33 to $42 and now it is the Bears turn.

The Fibonacci Calculation is (H/L)^.618*L for one of the two key fibonacci marks and in this case we can use the high of 49.81 and low of 32.32 and get us the mark of $42.22 and that's pretty much precisely where the market topped this morning. We had confirmation for days that we were going to this level because of how well it hold previous resistance of $38.11 which is the 38.2% of that calculation. I also said that as long as it holds 38.11 that I will not be bearish and because it is currently above it then I am only bearish on the shorter term trends. This sell off is global and this means all markets are affected. Crude Oil is down 4.79% for the day and under nine percent for the week so far. The Dow Jones is 2.5% for the day and about five percent for the week with selling even before the start of this week. The bond rates are going lower and this tells us money is going into bonds and thus TLT is up today as is the US Dollar index which is common on global sell-offs. These are market conditions that are expected to occur during an economic collapse of fiat currency as people get educated in masses to how currency and the economic system works.

In my community there is one major bank branch for around every three or four thousand people here. With only a few tellers per bank this tells me that there is going to be problems here when people demand their cash. Sure they can do whatever they want on the internet with their account as far as moving currency into many forms of financial instruments, but the one thing you can not do on the internet as far as I know is take physical cash in your hands. The only way to do this is to go to the bank machine and pull out money or ask the teller for money. This will cause problems with lineups at bank machines that would eventually lead to machines running out of currency as well as lineups at the teller machines and maybe the same thing for running out of currency. I see the banks busy on a regular day by day business and when something like this surfaces the world then it should be note worthy. I am not saying this is happening today, this week, month or year but it is very predictable that this will occur. The reason I say this today is because SOME-THING is going on right now and usually these things balance themselves out like it did last summer. The problem, is we are not in usual times.

08.03.2011

2011-08-03T10:11:00.001-07:00

INTERESTING VOLUME TODAY:
9:30:00 to 9:30:59 volume 2.7 million. The first minute is common to have this take place and this is most likely the highest first minute volume in a while.
9:53:00 to 9:53:59 volume 2.3 million. The market shot up a full percentage point which is common for a move of that nature to have big volume. This is big money taking many of the offers very fast and taking as many limit orders available. It followed with diminishing volume and higher prices
10:54:00 to 10:54:59 volume 1.1 million. With this one minute twelve cent drop and finishing with a six minute 0.5% retracement as a bottom this again shows us big buyers. Market stabilized after this.
15:42:00 to 15:42:59 volume 2.6 million. Move this minute was a total of four cents and a tenth of one percent and a red candle. Not so large and the movements of the chart at this time frame was in a neutral not so volatile range.
15:51:00 to 15:51:59 volume 2.6 million. The volume with the previous one was a match and being the end of the day you have another match. However, this one trumped the previous one by a penny and had a five cent down swing in the middle of a price correction through price on the downside. It is obvious the big money got out and these levels or there was the heavy buying. This day was the highest volume since 05.17.2011 and a breakout like this on heavy volume is usually a good sign for the bulls. More coming later after 8pm Eastern Time.

This chart shows the correction very well and the momentum gaining strength along the way. I said earlier in a video that the market is not bearish for a reason and that is because it really needs to be above $43.00 for me to call this market a bull market. It's neutral in the last few months and any long term chart like this is bullish and this one has been since 2004 with one year being cautious and a short time becoming neutral at least waiting for the dead cat bounce which obviously occurred. This was when it pierced through the eighteen period average of lows by a decent chunk. Since then it has been very bullish and the move to the upper band this retracement shows a little bit of time correction on this chart. Again, it is not much of a time correction and sometimes all markets need (or get) are these tiny corrections. It's not uncommon for them to just go and the setup of these charts picks up the smaller corrections very well in my opinion.

Just like the daily chart had a look where the fibonacci levels where at the higher end of the chart because it came off of heavy selling we see the opposite on this chart as it is coming from heavy buying. These lines will re adjust itself over the next three days starting tomorrow as it removes old data from the automated counting. The market is a little over extended and therefore the fibonacci marks are enlisted below and they will stay this way until silver makes a new high breaking $42.03. I will explain what each one means

85.4% = $40.54 -> This percentage level is the level it needs to hold for the silver market to be super premium or for a level that gives us a small or tiny correction. If a bounce comes from here and it approaches the new highs, it usually is a good to go for another leg higher. This level co-insides with the upside fibonacci from mentioned on youtube on Tuesday night.

76.4% = $39.67 -> The 76.4% level means it has retraced 23.6% down or held 76.4% of the move and this is where it is very bullish but not super premium. Instead of a tiny correction you will receive a fair correction and this mark of the thirty-nine level is a massive long-term fibonacci mark on many time frames.

61.8% = $38.30 -> This is where it needs to hold to keep the market in a bullish form as this is the main significant fibonacci mark one would be looking for. A decent size retracement has to come to get here and it does not have to hold to keep up the momentum, but concerns arise when this is not held for the market to go neutral or bearish. This level co-insides with the $38.11 fibonacci mark and the previous major resistance at this level. It is very bullish to find support at resistance and a move here would make me bullish at least on the short-term.

38.2% = $35.85 -> This is the "Must Hold" level for the rally not be a failure that occurred starting from the July lows. There is a big gap from the $38.30 and $35.85 level and although I would expect 50% to be the support resistance line in between it is the range for where the market is neutral. I don't expect it to come from here to this line, but you never know these days.

08.02.2011

2011-08-02T12:45:00.001-07:00

If you are looking for buy signals within' this chart you maybe able to see it as its breaking nicely. It is not uncommon for charts to find support at an average in the area of eighteen periods and then after stabilizing making a nice run. The upper bands were tested for over six months. It really needed a big break above this level to go parabolic and it was close, but not quite. short-term history tells us we had a manipulated market take it down with margin calls and we also know it is all manipulated. However, I don't know that much to how it is manipulated and I have faith in natural law that it will all work out. Buying on weakness was at $39 and $33 and those who bought there made a good play and if you are one them, good job. The $50 level will be the fourth test as two times that level was tested this year and once in 1980 and the more often resistance is tested the more likely it is taken out. Therefore if it breaks this I will be looking for the $75 area be the next major level. For now it is simply breaking away from the eighteen moving average as well as the fifty day moving average shown below. The bull is in right now and it will be until it is not.

I find it interesting how the CNBC channel shows that Silver is at $40.092 and Gold only at $1,644.50 and it makes me wonder why they show that when these are levels not seen since before two o'clock New York time. As I write this "Fast Money" guest is saying it is a long term play and did not give it much optimism on the short term. During they day they would ask the questions, "Why is Gold going up so much?" and the answer is very easy. I know them and I think you know them as well if you are reading this blog. I have not heard Cramer yet and today is my CNBC day and will stick with it until 7pm tonight. It is looking as if gold and silver will go higher based on the theory of a counter trade. They were bullish on stocks today and not so much on gold and silver. I rarely even heard them say "Silver" for the two or three hours that I caught. When these networks talk big about gold and silver then you may aspect that correction on the short term and now that they are not it gives me one case to be bullish this week and next.

07.29.2011

2011-07-29T07:32:00.000-07:00

07312011 - UPDATE 2325 EST - Yes the debt deal was passed and I searched the internet right after I did the post three minutes from the market open as well as a few minutes before six o'clock to see what deal may have been done. I guess it came out later and the big down moves for gold & silver started at the beginning of the day. it is unclear how Gold/Silver are doing, and my guess is that the price might be cheaper in the late morning session after the news on how the economy is fixed floods the mainstream propaganda press. I don't think anyone is surprised that they came to an agreement and thus raise the debt even further. I am hoping all this debt clock will get some of the 'masses' to educate themselves on the creation of currency. Some revolutions(revolts) may take place now after this occurs, but I don't think it will be anything that newsworthy. Most likely we can carry on with the boring every day activities with the story of the day changing and thus a new story on its way at some point. If you want to know how money is created, I feel the best movie out there to explain this is the youtube search for "zeitgeist federal reserve". Stick this into some method of search if you are interested. Be back on Monday in the afternoon.

07312011 - UPDATE 1803 EST - Market opened volatile down to $39.62 or a gap lower of almost one percent as it was thirty cents down the second it opened. It then went down another thirty cents to $39.30 and its a couple minutes later and the price is 39.66 after it was 39.76 a few seconds ago. Buckle up for this roller coaster. It will be a ride this early week!

Weekly Chart closes this week at $39.89 and down a total of twenty-three cents for the week and up fifty-four cents over the last two weeks. Yes the last two weeks did a whole bunch of nothing as far as price movements are concerned and the size of the candles were very small when looking at percentage movements or volatility of each week. This weeks movement was 5.34% from the lowest and highest points and over the last fifty days the average was 8.8% percent moves. What is productive about this move is how it didn't sell off after it made great gains. When the market is bullish and even neutral whenever rallies occur they usually follow up with movements lower. Therefore those last two weeks of small losses and gains was followed from the bigger green candle which was almost a ten percent gain and for two weeks it is has held those gains. This has placed the market above the eighteen period average band with the direction of the average moving higher showing breakout signs :)

Quarter Day Chart is still having a test within' the five day moving average (20/4) and its now been going on for six days. It is looking like it may be used as resistance and start a down trend and it might, but with the length of time being as long as it has within' the test the market is very neutral and when that is the situation that means you look for buy opportunities for small chunks when its lower and below the average and sell when it crosses above the average. That play will work until the range breaks and then it will be a bad sale. As far as price action is concerned is the higher lows that is very impressive. The last three break lows on this chart are higher than the previous which means a hold above $39.33 will remain very important going into the next week. Debt Ceiling talks are next week and this should spur some volatility and some larger size red and/or green candles.

Daily Chart looks clear from here that this big level a hair above thirty-eight has now been support and since it has found support at this level it has stayed above this mark for twelve consecutive sessions as well as ten straight days where silver has traded over forty per ounce is showing that the market is holding this fibonacci level well. The market is only bearish on the shortest of terms because the three day, weekly, monthly, quarterly are all bullish to one degree or another and because of this we can very easily see the spark that we need to bring this market further to the upside. The price action has currently finding a test at this front weighted eighteen period average and this average is rising. Very often support is found at this area and a move from this level would not be a surprise. I am still cautious about the market because it has not tested the level of a hair above forty-two, but the run may not be over and the test can very easily come next week. If this market does break down below thirty-eight without a test of the forty-two mark then there might be a viscous fast move but as I stand here the odds of this happening does not favor such a case.

Quarter year chart is used for long term investors or bullion physical silver traders. It takes a long time for this chart to move because only four different candles will appear per year. The trend has a nice uptrend and it has pulled back a little from the highs in May. There isn't much more to say here because it is below '80 Highs as well as the highs from this year showing it is not super overbought and if anything it is super oversold when you adjust for inflation or comparing against other commodities and indices. The current green candle can very easily make a higher high than the previous one and would expect it to break past the $50 level this quarter or by the end of September. I am still buying physical silver because I know the prices are suppressed and I have no faith at all in fiat currency.

Three Day Chart gives each candle three days and the current tick is starting today for this chart and will end on Tuesday. This chart is in between the weekly and the daily and may put this as part of the series of charts that include the daily, weekly, monthly, six hour, quarterly and yearly. This chart had resistance at the eighteen period average band after the market caved in at the start of May and since that point it has moved higher after finding the thirty-three area as nice support. The bands are now rising and showing the buyers taking back control of the market. Nothing wrong with a little move lower if it happens on this chart because that would give us a chance to have support at the blue band where it can resume its long term uptrend.

MONTHLY CHART is coming to an end today as this is the final trading day of July. The month will end with a nice gain as it attempts to find lift off support from the eighteen period average of highs. When looking at this chart with a logarithmic view and putting a mind set of "Long term thinking" then the moves that bring silver from fifty to the low thirties is a normal regular correction that is not a surprise to occur. People believe this selling damaged the market and from day one I knew it had not because the size of the red candles for May & June were nothing extra ordinary. The size for July again is nothing extra ordinary as well as markets keep trading normal. The fifty dollar level is the next key resistance on this chart which matches the yearly highs as well as the '80 highs. Because this level has been tested quite often then the odds of taking it out go higher for new gains and the upper band currently set at 54.52 is the next level. The upper band in August will go higher and even $56 to $57 might be a nice level on a rally to look for resistance.

MORE CHARTS COMING BELOW HERE THAT DOES NOT HAVE COMMENTARY ATTACHED LATER TODAY/WEEKEND

07.28.2011

2011-07-28T16:44:00.000-07:00

For todays post I am simply going to type for about twenty minutes and embed a video from Cyrus who makes excellent videos. I'll start of by saying to please vote on the right hand side for which content it is that you would want to see. I can't and will not show everything, but will based on what gets the most votes. Moving on to today's blog I really do not have much of an idea for what I want to talk about, but there is a lot going on right now and it will be easy. The biggest news of the day is rolling across the "Debt Ceiling" and this is coming into play for the start of the next week as Monday is the deadline to come to an agreement. It seems there is always a new story as the old one passes when time rolls on. This story will go away as well and new ones will come. When the stories come in where people are refusing to accept payment in currency for goods, services or employment then things will be a little different. For this one we will most likely see volatile moves in silver will be more volatile and after I have seen the "Civil Law Suit" from Goldman do nothing, the "Flash Crash" on the stock market do nothing as well as even the Oil Spill lead to nothing and the "Silver Comex Crash" was a scare earlier this year that is now in the old I forgot it news. I'm going to put these talks on that list right now until they can prove me otherwise.

I hope as well as many other minorities of truth that the ceiling does not raise and we can get on with the dollar collapse at a more stable manner but that is unlikely to happen. Simple math tells me that the volatility will come because the powers that be always use the events that are scripted (if they are) or the ones that are going on as an excuse (if they are). I inserted the (if they are) because you never know whats real. Maybe it was Osama Bin Laden and the Easter Bunny is real, but I doubt it. As of the close on 07/28/2011 the SLV options for August show me a $44 call for twenty-seven cents a pop and a put for $35 and thirty-nine cents a pop. The math is awesome because it is easy and essential to buy at least five or six contracts of each and therefore unload them for profits one at a time as they appear. Most people lose with options and I doubt this one will lose as either the call or put have potential to generate major gains. It's a gamble and a casino style gamble I will not do because of who the bookies happen to be and I don't like high stakes gambling unless I can afford it and I am good at it. This case is simply because of who the bookies happen to be. I'll follow up later on these phony options and if you choose to play, remember its a gamble and risk what you can afford to lose as Im just a regular guy behind a computer who may or may not know what he is talking about :) Later and enjoy the video below.

07.27.2011

2011-07-27T07:35:00.001-07:00

I have found a nice link that has the charts for the comex inventory levels. They are getting lower right now and its suspect even if they have what they are claiming they do. Either way, it is only a matter of time before the market really explodes.

07.26.2011

2011-07-26T11:43:00.001-07:00

Daily Chart shows as if it looks as if we now have an appointment very soon with forty-two dollars. I kind of think it would be the next candle that would so such a thing or Wednesday's session, but that's no where near a guarantee, but how this is playing out. Today broke the six day streak of having the silver price go below $40 and above $40 within' each session and because today the lowest point was $40.05 that streak came to a close today. This is showing how well these areas are holding these major support levels. After a nice breakout earlier from the mid thirty silver level it found a resistance point at the upper band and then it had a four candle sideways consolidation that it has now broke. Two days above this and now nine holds above $38.11 giving enough confirmation that the bear market is at least over and thus the market should go bullish or head neutral, but most likely bullish.

Quarter Day chart is looking as if this market is ready to get going and have another leg higher as it really needs to clear the resistance level at forty-one per ounce, but it has lifted from the blue band which represents the five day average. The test of the five day average is still in play and has been tested for over five days. It will be a passed test if the market can have at least one more leg towards the opposite and move away from this average. It will fail the test if it is not support and it establishes a leg lower and the five day average thus turning lower. Instead it has stayed within' the blue band as well sometimes a little above it and sometimes a little below it. These are all normal things that can occur when these types of moving averages get tested. Currently the upper-band is forty-two which is also the area where the big fibonacci resistance level is found on the daily chart as possible resistance areas.

At 4pm the fifty day low remains $32.90 and this means silver is 23.92% above this line and now giving signs of again bullishness on this chart. What I like about this chart is it gives you distinctive areas for where the markets are breaking out of previous conditions that were correctional. The move from fifty to thirty-two was definitely a price correction and although it is looking more and more each day that the $32.32 mark is the bottom that the indicators are stating it could have a decent run up very soon. There is no guarantees on these charts and there never is, but what they merely do is give indications to price direction.

When looking at the shorter view of the exact same chart it has developed a resistance level exactly for where we are at as it needs to get above $41 to show confirmation. Fiboancci still says it needs to have a confirmed break above $42 to make the move fifty to thirty-two to become a failed move. Ultimately it is one hundred percent that selling a few months back will be a failure and the question now remains is when will it fail and if the dollar is going to fail to have the status of "money" with the combination of debt the likelihood of silver value priced in fiat dollars to go higher is outstanding. That is why I truly feel I am cheating on here with these silver charts because the ultimate outcome is not in question.

07.22.2011 to 07.24.2011

2011-07-22T16:13:00.000-07:00

It is reaching eight o'clock new york dinner time and the market has been trading for about two hours and is up one percent so far for Monday's session. It has been holding the $38 level well as support so well that you can consider the $39 level being held which is even stronger. I don't know, maybe $40 will be support this week but what I do see is this chart pulling or breaking away from the sideways consolidation already above the rising eighteeen period average band. The odds favor continuation to the upside, but before we get there the previous break high of $40.87 last Tuesday. Last Monday silver broke into the forties and traded every day at some point above forty and every day below forty which meant at least once per day the market went above or below the forty handle. Because of the uptrend and the consolidation if the market does seem to explode further then the upper band is currently at $43.57 and rising which is an area I would expect it to move towards. If this does not happen and the breakout is fake so far then the bottom of the range of the eighteen period average of highs would be the expected area to watch for support.

The most recent cover of Money has a picture of some silver eagles that you may have seen on SGT Bull's video and subliminal messaging. I have choose to reply to this via blog rather than via video. I have a few points that I want to go over and if you want to watch either one or both of the two videos that was put out on this, they are embedded on the blog below this article. Apparently the Managing Editor from the MONEY magazine had the following to say about Gold: "...we don't think they're great investments. You've got to store them and insure them, and they're not so much 'investments' as they are items of speculation." He stated they don't think they are great investments and that is fine, because the speculation ultimately is if it is a good investment or not and there are many variables when deciding on any investment. The line that you have to store and insure them makes feel as if I should laugh and/or cry. This is correct to a point but would you refuse buying a shirt because you have to hang it up in the closet? The editor makes it sound likes it a hard job that makes it not worth it to have. When the author says silver/gold are not investments but more to items of speculation and this one is very easy to debunk. By google searching "investing definition" I was able to come across this site that tells me investing is defined as risking capital to make profitable returns. Therefore, it fits the definition one hundred percent for being such a thing in the case of gold and silver. This makes me wonder about the author because you would think that someone whom makes a magazine called "Money" would know what investing is.

The author later stated in regards to gold/silver: "After all, you're not 'investing' in a business's earnings power or a governments entity's ability to foster progress." It is interesting how he stated that its not like you are getting into a company and thus we have seen shares in Lehman, Bear Sterns, AIG, Citi get clobbered as well as many other ones. How did they turn out? Many stocks are not doing so well and they trade in the exact same kind of format regarding bidders and askers. This shows that this is all speculation and why it would be sane and educational for banks and firms to tell their customers that this is gambling and not investing or for them to realize that investing is another word that can be used as gambling and thus it is recommended for people to do their homework and find gambles that have a positive ROI (Return on Investment).

Finally Craig states that people are making a bet that people will remain scared and I feel this line was dominated by "scared" for that of trying to scare people not to buy gold and silver. Then they point out that you have to be smart enough to sell before they stop being scared. This assumes that gold will blow off and never see these levels again like we seen in 1980 in a price denomination of that of currency. It seems like the author really wanted to rip the intelligence that people are going to lose on this bet even if they happen to have some early gains. This was written with the same kind of words that you hear over and over over the mainstream news networks by using big people like Buffett to get people to sway one direction or not. You will hear its bearish for gold that there are ATM's starting to dispense such an asset and how poor of a speculation this is.

Im going to use the final paragraph to reply to any of those people talking about investing in bad times or why its not good to cheer for the dollar to collapse. I'll begin with the hard times and when you are looking at investing you need to see what the message of the market is telling you and what does the message say today? The message states that we have a major awakening going on right now and thus when millions and hundreds of millions of earth citizens realize that they have been bombarded with guaranteed debt in a monopolized monetary system, what would you think the chances are that the dollar will survive? That's the Risk/Reward or determining how much of an advantage you have in making the wager. It's not my fault the time have to be coming to this now and this was not the wager to make in 1984 as the message of the market then seemed to show that consumerism and mainly computerization to be the next big thing. The MSFT and IBM investments are now finished and the message says the dollar must go. As far as those people whom say that they don't want this to happen or why would you want this to happen I reply with one word containing four letters: DEBT! This is how our system is currently set up so that everyone is in major levels of such a degree that it causes much stress and anger in humanitarians. I think that is negative thinking and I think that is doomsday. Therefore I personally welcome the death of the dollar and I do so with open arms because I want to see progress for our species and the monetary system is getting in the way of progress. In order to move forward we must destroy what is holding us back.

SGTBULL - part 1 07.15.2011

SGTBULL - part 2 07.22.2011

07.20.2011

2011-07-20T14:32:00.001-07:00

Quarter-day Chart is showing a nice pattern as it has found support at this twenty period average of highs, lows and closes and has just broke that level above it and back above forty fiats. This twenty average is five days because there are four ticks per day. This means it has went through the five average and then recaptured its level back above the rising average. This is a failed move that can often times cause fast moves. You can see the last one on this chart broke below the five day average and then a fast move that made it to the upper part of the band at thirty-nine fiats. This band is different from the bollinger band and seems to be working very well as I have been using this now going on my second month. Currently this band is at $42.35 and when silver was breaking past the five average a week and a half ago its bad was around thirty-eight and it rose another dollar when they met. If this rises another dollar then it brings us to $43 area, but what is important to realize is there is upside potential in silver as it closes at the highs of the day today.

Daily Chart ends with a close above $40 and more importantly the $38.14 number on the chart that represents the fibonacci from the big highs pre-crash and the crash bottom totaling three dimes above thirty fiats. What I like about this chart is how it is holding well as support in what used to be resistance. With further momentum we can now look to make a move towards the target which is the band at 42.00 which is moving and the $42.23 level that is not moving. This number represents the "must hold" level for this selling to become a legit move and ultimately start a 6-200 month bear market. I say 200 only because history has shown that it is not uncommon for a market index like silver to have a bear market in that duration from fifty fiats based on what happened in 1980. Of course, a multi year bear market is not going to happen and even a twelve month bear market does not seem logical today. Even though its possible for the price to make new lows breaking the thirty handle or even stay in this range for a longer period of time, it is most likely that if this does happen that would be it for the bear market. It is insane that silver is below the 1980 highs and that a correction of over ninety percent down was even possible. This should bring a yellow or red flag when you see this kind of activity and most definitely questions should be asked. There is two ways of looking at silver investing for long term holding and that is 1) If the dollar collapses, how will this play out with the physical? The answer to this one would be of holding something that other people are favored to want or be happy to barter with. Many people may not like silver in this environment but will realize they can accept your silver in trade and then trade it back for something else they want and thus giving it money principles. 2) We are crazy about the dollar collapsing and the world carries on like it always has and we can just do our thing. In this case inflation of normal values will reign in and by 2050 the silver should be worth over four hundred and thus its higher than having those fiat notes. I expect number one to happen, but I like to look at things from multiple angles.

07.19.2011

2011-07-19T13:55:00.000-07:00

Daily Chart had a move today that brought silver below thirty-nine dollars as the market was flirting a move to forty-one that did not occur. $38.11 is huge which is calculated at $38.14 using the automated fibonacci of the last sixty-seven periods. Either way, this number area is big and a move to this level for breakout support would be ideal and nice. I stated that the hammer candle was not a bearish one this time because it found support at this massive level. That turned out to be true and that level of support is the original breakthrough support to the next level. Now that it has had a decent move from that previous close of $38.17 on July 14 I will be paying attention to see if we can have a final lift off support near this level. Final note was that the market got up to my upper band before retracing. This band is different from the regular bollinger band as this is calculated by taking the average volatility percent over the last eighteen days on a front weighted manner. It takes this percentage and multiplies this by three. For the upper band this percentage increase is added on to the eighteen period average of highs and the target is made.

Quarter day chart has the market moving towards the front weighed five day moving average. It moved a decent amount below the five day average of closes at $39.50 however the actual five day moving average which is not front weighted $38.89 and a sizable difference. With the at least short term bottom coming at $38.61 this meant it pretty much had a bounce on the five day average most people are familiar with. The front weighed gives a better more accurate picture. This bigger size move can give some concern, but I wouldn't expect this to be the case although it is possible. The higher volume started on the morning of July 11 as the rally was starting to ignite. With the volume being relatively the same as yesterdays move it is going to be hard for me to give much conviction to the down side. With that being said, this is the first breakout/down on this range and I am concerned that the first one does bring a failed move. This is the second test of the five day moving average on this chart and the last break low was $37.60 and that is the number it needs to find a bottom higher than to make a higher low. If the market goes below this level then the fibonacci retracement from these levels equates to $37.85 and $36.11 and therefore a break of this previous low means its breaking below fibonacci and this could set up a DDAY moment at the lower level at thirty-six per ounce. I say DDAY because this is a term I use when the market is a point where it needs to make a decision and thus its Decision Day and because the bull versus bear market is like a war, it is only fitting in my opinion.

07.18.2011

2011-07-18T10:34:00.000-07:00

Daily Chart has a rise in volume over the last few days as it has cleared from the fifty day moving average with it's first close above $40.00 since May 3, 2011. I find this an interesting pattern because it looks like someone has just broke the metrodome roof wide open as the shape of the fifty day moving average resembles a baseball dome. No confirmation as of yet on the break above this level as a test of the fifty and previous resistance would be ideal and healthy for the market in some sort of correction mode either through price or time. To sum up the support found at the 38.2% level was magnificent and the bounce is happening. The market has given many people time to buy silver and not miss the boat because of over two months of discounted prices. It is unfortunate that people pass on these deals.

This indicator has managed to surpass the twenty percentage level that I have been talking about, and not only has it moved above the blue line (direction from the low) but with new highs not seen since early May we are also making new fifty day highs in the forties again for the second time this year. For this pattern to show a breakout signal now it needs to have some formation to hold these gains and this isn't happening yet. It is just going up and up and up and thus if this happens then at some point you just have to say "This is a confirmed up trend, wow!" When this happens its very much a great play the first moment it breaks the resistance level and in this case it was eighteen percent and myself I like support to be found at previous resistance and that's where I would be looking to buy with this chart moving back to 18% and then going higher. With that said, this chart is useless this time other than for any other knowledge needed and its for its looks, because the breakout signal will come when this $38 area is used as support with momentum moving back higher. Again even this information is useless when you understand the entire spectrum on how currency is created and what the cause and effect is of people in mass waking up world wide. Take care and have a great day. Be back Tuesday.

If this game show idea gets popular it may become a TRADITION to watch the show :)

UPDATE 1335 EST - The dow is down over one percent with a declining five day average and silver is breaking forty and making a new two and a half month high with a rising five average. Gold is now breaking $1,600 and I think it is an understatement to state that it is holding $38.11 very well right now, but we have still yet to confirm the break above this level as of yet.

07.15.2011

2011-07-15T08:22:00.000-07:00

We will make a higher low at $37.89 today if we can take out the new highs and keep the pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact that we have just begun. If we are looking for a direction to where a higher high MAY occur then I will put it at the top part of this trend line and if this happens soon by Monday or early Tuesday of next week I will target a hair above $40.00 per ounce. I also put the word may in cap locks because all I am trying to do when pick out possible support and resistance lines is finding the targets that have a better than normal chance of being such a degree. By understanding the psychology that if resistance is not that and moves higher than volatility goes higher and the next levels of resistance now get stuck with the word "MAY". Again if you use the psychology of failure to have a test then you can start to think of reversal trends or failed moves. Therefore if this line is not tested then I will consider this to either need some more time to correct or that of being a failed move which is pretty much the same thing. I am not on the bear camp yet, but I am losing confidence in that I am less pessimistic of even having a $35.00 test with the great job silver is holding above the $38.00 area.

07.14.2011

2011-07-14T08:15:00.000-07:00

Daily Chart shows an interesting setup and the reason why you look for multiple different variables in making decisions. Normally when you rally to start a session and close near the area that you open you get a candle formation that is very bearish. These can often times come after the streak has been doing well lately. However, When we are coming off a five plus percent gain and it manages to hold above $38.00 since Wednesday afternoon or holding well for over thirty hours. This is a bullish sign and when its holding above the $38.11 fibonacci mark, I now look at this candle not as bearish but maybe even bullish. The reason for this is because it has came back to support. If you are the type of person whom wants the market to come back to the breakout point after it breaks out, then here you go and considering $38.12 was the exact level the market closed today at 5:15pm EST which has thus far been the bottom it is becoming magnificent. The more often you test a significant level, then the better the chances are that you take it out and when you look at this chart you can see we have had a few tests in this sideways correction. The upper band is well below the price action which tells me that there can be upside room for the market to move towards and the volatility chart (final chart) is now just breaking out that sets up some big moves. We are still waiting to confirm this move and time or price is what is needed for confirmation. Price by skyrocketing higher and time by showing setups that $38.11 is a thing of the past.

Weekly Chart has the market above the 18 period average of closes and because it has had a large price correction of one third its value as well as over two months thus far of sideways time correction gives reason for why this market can go very far very fast. Key word is can and this is being said because these corrections can be stated to build fuel for the next big move in the market. If you have been one of those people whom have been saying for months or years that you want it to pullback and load the boat or at least put a nice order in, then you have no excuses for timing now. We have seen mid thirty dollar silver for many weeks and it could be longer, but dynamics are currently changing. It seems the talk is all about the "Debt ceiling" and the word "default" which is now being placed with USA currency. These things will only make gold and silver go higher. If they do not raise the debt ceiling then the default happens and therefore the dollar has just collapsed. If they do raise the debt ceiling then you will get a lot of outrage and silver and gold will still go higher (maybe even short term) because of inflationary policies by the federal reserve.

Thank you for tuning into the blog today and below is the chart of the volatility on the quarterday time frame. This is measured by taking the moves during the 6-12 and 12-6 periods of (high - low) / low. Then a 20 & 80 front weighted average was put on this which is merely nothing more than the five day and twenty day front weighted moving average of moves over a six hour period.

Final Update for Now 11:52 EST - Site still down on ForexPros and I'll set up a day to do something this in the near future. I did this three months ago and that is making quick posts on market condition. That level i stated did bounce and was(is) a profitable bet if you play that game. Will be back in the afternoon/evening.

11:38AM - We should be at that bottom level that I mentioned from before. No guarantee it bottoms, but this is fibonacci support level

11:33AM - New bottom level has been changed from $38.45 to $38.48 and it looks like it will be tested soon.

11:24AM - Chart from link below has stopped working (for now) and the price has dropped. $38.61 now and the volatility in the market is showing us that things are picking up. I am predicting intermediate term down side, but hope it is not.

11:15AM - Interesting day today as it has crossed the $39.00 barrier and is holding above the $38.11 level and therefore we are at that major resistance point that has been talked about for quite some time. Over the next hour or two, depending on if I get called away or not I will be giving levels of where I think short term tops and bottoms may occur. Right now the top is $38.95 and the bottom is $38.45 using the levels from the following silver chart on the one minute time frame

07.13.2011 - Breakout Day?

2011-07-13T12:31:00.001-07:00

WEEKLY CHART has the market snug in a nice neutral position still waiting for decision. The eighteen period average of highs is $38.91 using a front weighted average and it has not even tested this average yet during the last few weeks. In fact the market has never closed a week above the eighteen period average on these closes during this time frame and is currently above this level now. Breakouts from these patterns can be fast and furious and a confirmed break above the $39 mark i've been saying for a couple months will give this chart bullish signs.

DAILY CHART has the market with a close above the significant fibonacci level at $38.14 for the first time in a month and a half and the analysis I take from this is the chances are higher we take it out and because it has not been there for a while it may need time to consolidate. The 18 period highs and closes average is well above the price and there is nothing wrong with a decent size price correction without destroying the momentum. If we can have a higher high, higher low and a close above $38.14 on Thursday then it looks like we are good to go in the start of a new uptrend

THE BEAR LINE or the direction from the fifty day high has crashed today with both newer lower highs coming into the market as well as over five percent gain on Wednesday. In fact silver ended the day meeting up at the same spot with both lines. The direction from the low is now at 16.48% from its lows with the bear line at 16.11%. At the start of the day the fifty day high was $47.25 and it is currently at $44.19 and tomorrow at the end of the day will be $41.33 where we could potentially have a realistic shot of making a new fifty day high (SLV days) if it can close with a nine percent gain. That won't happen (or should not happen), but what will happen is the orange line moving significantly over the blue line which is important to have to go long. That is not enough to go long as its one of the variables needed as it needs to have a confirmed break above the 20% area and that works to the same as having a confirmed break above this current Fibonacci variable we are at now.

Update 1612 est - I'll update this blog in the evening session most likely and it will be interesting to see how the direction from the fifty day is going to look and especially because the market is rising as the fifty day high moves into crash mode through time of fifty days passing. I took a peak at it this afternoon and the direction from the fifty day high has crashed, but is still above the direction from the fifty day low set at $32.32. To put this into perspective the May 10 high was $39.48. May 10 was also forty-six days ago counting holidays and therefore SLV has a lag on the calculations, but it is close enough. This means we could potentially get a confirmed buy signal next week if things go well.

1530 est - Rally is looking great right now and holding above $38.00 with some small corrections along the way. We still need to confirm that this is a real breakout and this will happen over time. The key is that move above $39.00 and we are still below it. The volume on SLV was higher today as well as volatility and will comment more on that later on for those watching live. For those not watching live, this is nothing more than the final update blip on the bottom of the screen.

07.12.2011

2011-07-12T14:04:00.000-07:00

The fifty day average closed today at $36.06 and is declining. It has one day left to decline and the average will then start to flatten out. Minutes before the 5:15pm close the market is at $34.15 and above this level. The five day moving average is currently set at $36.04 and rising where this line will cross through the fifty day moving at precisely 6pm EST today when the market opens. The five day average has already done this pattern with the ten and twenty moving average where a rising short term moving average crosses above a longer term declining average. To have a confirmed break above the fifty average it needs to break resistance on the $39.00 handle and then confirm a hold above. If and when this happens then the trend will switch to bullish. The fifty average is declining, but that does not make it bearish. The reason for that is because it just left the phase of flattening out and it has to break the big support level of $32.00 to begin a long term bear market. I'm not to optimistic that a long term bear market will occur and therefore it will be interesting to see how the next little while plays out as we work towards confirming a breakout. Volatility charts are showing that something is ready to brew (More on that later tonight)

The line of price is very similar to Ira Epstein swing line study which uses a calculation to determine if the trend is up or down and therefore never miss a new high or low. The swing today brought us to a new high and a trend change on this view of the market with a higher high. What it does is takes the three day front weighted average of highs, lows and closes. If the average is declining then I use the low as the variable and if its a rising average then I have the high as the variable.

Markets are looking to move into volatility as it seems that a stage one or two is in play. There are four stages which start with a stage 1 sideways consolidation from a bottom. Stage two is higher highs and higher lows uptrend and stage three is sideways from a top and four is a down. We just finished a massive stage four and the odds seem very probable now that big moves will come back in the market. With the higher volatility this means the targets on the longer term time frame of $32.00 and $26.00 on the down side become easier to hit as do the upside targets of $39.00 and $45.00 and beyond with high volatility. Expect big moves in the morning and for this chart to start a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

Final Note - I have been seeing many formations on silver showing patterns of v and reverse v formations. This is when it goes down as fast it goes up. This has occurred on many different time frames and its possible that an inverted Bart Simpson head pattern maybe forming which is a pattern where a market goes up very vertical and then goes choppy up and down in a tight range and then crashes back down pretty much as vertical as the first move. For this to happen, Silver would have to move fast from $40 to $50 per ounce and its unlikely it will play out. I'll go over more on this later on.

07.11.2011

2011-07-11T12:03:00.000-07:00

This range that we have seen has put the price memory for this rally at the level we are currently stabilizing within' as we continue correcting sideways. This graph shows a ten percent barrier for each price movement takes three entries per day for this graph. I don't know if we are over staying our welcome here in this tight ragne, but we have established a major amount of support/resistance currently within' the $33 to $38 range. This tells me that this level is going to be significant area later on, and when I say significant I state that it will be noticeable after the fact. If this range happens to end with a break to the upside that brings parabolic gains and we never go below fifty again then this area is big for when looking back at today as a past moment, then I will most likely say this was an area it consolidated through time which is what is needed for markets not go straight up and build energy for large moves.

Earlier on this year on the blog I was saying to buy any price below $78.00 per ounce for protection against fiat currency and its over fifty percent lower than that level currently. Nothing has obviously changed and I still love the buys at these levels for people who may not want to or are able to time charts. Therefore, with these suppressed prices if you are buying today then I see this as buying on long term strength (check inflation adjusted chart below) as the market has been rallying well for the last few years with major upside room left. You are also buying on two levels of weakness. The first level is the short term move of an intermediate term crash and bear flag pattern that is bearish as well as being well below the 1980 highs inflation adjusted, as well as below the nominal highs. This means you are buying on weakness and what I have learned is that buying on weakness and selling on strength is a profitable way of making positive yields as long as you are good at finding when its to buy and sell. There can easily be more down side left, but again this is short term and creates more buying dips. It isn't easy for the most part and can be very difficult to find tops and bottoms in this market and it is easy to see when it has fallen to give a status of a 'dip'. I stated at $39 silver to be a big point on the way down and it was not such a case on support and it crashed again below this target. This level later became major resistance and therefore was established to be a fiboancci level acting accordingly. With this not being easy for the most part because tops and bottoms are so difficult to pick it becomes much easier when you think of how inflation works and how to counter this. It's easy to realize that products and services over the years are going up in price. If you have been on this planet enough years then you have seen it first hand as you look back at your childhood and how much more these items cost. This is important to realize that inflation is real and that there are no current signs of inflation ending and the signs are showing more growth towards inflation. Therefore if you are buying on a long term time frame and you see prices go down much lower then it can be generally safe to say that is a buying opportunity. If you bought some bullion at $39.00 as it was crashing lower in May then you can and very easily should hit that bottom. If you bought again at $34.00 area then the same is at true as it would be heading below $30.00. The reason I say this is for those whom did this strategy in 2008 when it fell to $16, $12, $9 and if you had bought on all of those dips you made a great play. If your goal is to turn it quick for a short term gain then buying on weakness and strength can cause problems.

Is it likely that buying on these dips will turn out to be a great play? Using math probability odds the answer leans towards "yes" and on a personal level, I would rather store money in gold and silver not only because of its upside potential and probabilities, protection against dollar collapses, but the biggest reason I love it is because it allows you to save money while you eliminate the ease of easy transaction. When you save in cash it is very easy to spend it when you have it in some sort of safe because of how easy it is to do such a thing. Gold and silver actually need a buyer and therefore I personally find it easier to save when you do so in precious metals. I can't speak for everyone, but when I hold fiat money then there enters a little bit of fear that I will be left with this when the music stops during this game of hot fiat currency.

07.05.2011

2011-07-05T13:06:00.001-07:00

Even though the silver market today had a massive gain of over four percent, it's still a bounce within' the trend back away from the bottom of this range and on the direction from the fifty still a ways to go to reverse the trend. The trend line is needed to break to confirm a buy signal as well as a break above 18% from the current fifty day low and this is currently a little over thirty-two per ounce. at eighteen percent gain this would take us to the levels around the thirty-eight barrier which is the massive target for this current state. This range has been a long one that was established over only two days on May 11 & 12th. Silver was as high as $39.48 on May 11 and was as low as $32.34 on the May 12. This means that the market has stayed with a 48 hour trading span in around two months. This is not normal market activities and yes there was manipulation on the way up as there is on the way down. The move in May is a reminder of this roller coaster and its not time to take off your seat belts as of yet as the fallout from this sideways consolidation has to play it self out. The longer a market stays sideways like this, then the larger the breakout or breakdown tends to be. This means a fast move either up or down and until the market breaks the highs and lows from those two days I label the market neutral and boring.

06.30.2011

2011-06-30T17:14:00.000-07:00

Two losing months in a row! So be it, that happens and the red candles for May and June are not that large on this logarithmic chart and more standard pullbacks. The market is still rising above the front weighted eighteen period average of highs, lows and closes. The key level to start this month of is $32.85 as this is the level for the eighteen period average of highs. Because the market is above the line and has not been touched since last summers breakout the market is bullish and no need (yet) to be cautious. More that it could become cautious if the selling brings us below the level stated below thirty-three and if you are looking for buy signals within' the current uptrend then you would need to see the weekly chart straighten out first or let the market move towards cautiously bullish or below thirty-two and even towards thirty flat. Fibonacci is Twenty-Five and that is the "Must Hold" for silver to remain bullish.

Throwing all this aside, the joy people should be having for having more time to prepare for what is becoming 100% likely to occur in the destruction of fiat currency. These levels will not remain here for that long and although the lower support numbers going down to as low as $19.00 on the quarterly chart are thus moves within' the primary trend. The trend is higher and because the likelihood that fiat money will never become strong intrinsically as well as humans confidence in the dollar does not look good in the future. I don't think it should be debated if paying fiat dollars for silver at today's price levels to be a good or poor decision. I say this because anything that is real is what should be sought after. Whether there are better investments over silver for one person is definitely and should be up for debate. In some cases real estate or industrial equipment might be what is needed or stocking up on bic pens because of a possible pen shortage or massive spike in price. There are many options. I do think however, it is good to have a surplus of pens as they are good emergency items for writing stuff done.

06.28.2011

2011-06-28T13:49:00.001-07:00

Hello, sorry I haven't been around on this blog for a while, but with the market being in this neutral waiting to form some sort of trend direction or some sort of news worthy event that is worth nothing, then I might as well take it easy on here. The market remains int he range from 33.00 to 39.00 and is at the bottom end of this currently. Fibonacci support of 33.58 has been holding very well, but the resistance has been holding much better showing bearish sentiment on the first move which would either spark selling to most likely below $29.00 to the next major level set at $26.00 or a failed move that will spark most likely an original fast move into the bull market trend. Of course you have more of this time consolidation and if you buy silver now because its cheap this is the time in comparison with previous prices on a simple numbers game. The numbers stated that in 1980 it was $50.00 for a brief moment on three different days and settled above $30.00. I also know that at the end of May it reached $50 again and yet is settling in the same areas. This is time is different, right? In, numbers I think (no). I can make a chart to compare these two time frames and can make it in a few minutes and will later on. Check below on the blog and I am guessing as I type this without looking at it or knowing its details that it has similar trends. What is different is currency values. Products are up substantially from 1980 and more so from the sixties. $50 in 1980 may not even be worth ten today. Therefore the numbers state that we could be at three dollar silver for that same time frame and three bucks was cheap back then.

If you are buying bullion silver and you are wondering if you should buy now with question marks as you scratch your head, you need to ask yourself why you are scratching your head. It could be fear that you will lose this gamble and the charts will never show over thirty again for many years. If that is the case, Really? I mean, Really? It could be because they are scared to liquidate it or sell it. If this is the case then you may need to spend some time and energy in the future to sell your silver. Don't take it to the dealer and get 90% on spot, rather you can network yourself with other people, online classifieds as there is many ways to get great deals. If someone is willing to buy silver eagles or maples for $39 from a dealer who will give you $34 then why not talk to the guy who wants to buy at $39 and offer $37 or $38. Yes, you can't say that at the dealer shop, but walk out with him/her when that person leaves and ask if you want to buy anymore and you should either get your sale or a possible sale in the future. The ones whom use strategies to get the best buys and sells at any time are going to win. It's important if you are going to go out of your way to buy gold/silver bullion that you get the best deal possible Therefore, if you are buying silver now, there should be no worry or concern of selling it right now. That time will come in the future. If your still scratching your head is it because you are tying up to much short term fiat. You don't want to have to liquidate and its not a great feeling when you are forced to liquidate this stuff for regular expenses, but that is why it is a safety net to begin with. However, if its because of the price being very high or wanting another dip then you have to ask yourself if you buy today at thirty-four per ounce and it goes down to twenty-nine would you buy again? If the answer is "yes" because you love the deals, then you buy now if you haven't recently and find the best deal you can. If you say "no" to buying at the lower price for most likely the reason that you won't have anything to buy more with, it might be right to scratch your head. I only know of two good ways to buy positions so that you can be effective at buying low and selling high. One of the ways is to find clear cut breakout signs which I have explained in the direction from the fifty as a good example. If you don't get in on this at the right time, you can very easily become late. Thankfully the super long term charts say we got a long ways to go before that is the case there. Another way to buy is to buy when its down to much. Gauging what is down to much is very hard and requires a lot of skill and hard work. One example is tell yourself. "I will buy when silver reaches $26.00 or very solid technical analysis breakout signs and as of now that is not even close." When this is the case then you stay in the sidelines. If you are a seasonal trader, then you buy on Thursday. Simple as that, you have to buy on Thursday. I'll explain more later this week why this to be the case.

Images can be enlarged by clicking them. The image blow uses a front weighted moving average which puts more emphasize to the earlier periods. For an 18 period average by using a spreadsheet a formula would be needed like this:

Place Date in Column A, Open in B, High in C, Low in D and Close in E

For the Highs, place this in row 18 and put an equals sign to start it

(e18*18+e17*17+e16*16+e15*15+e14*14+e13*13+e12*12+e11*11+e10*10+e9*9+e8*8+e7*7+e6*6+e5*4+e4*3+e3*2+e2)/171
Lows
(d18*18+d17*17+d16*16+d15*15+d14*14+d13*13+d12*12+d11*11+d10*10+d9*9+d8*8+d7*7+d6*6+d5*4+d4*3+d3*2+d2)/171
Closes
(e18*18+e17*17+e16*16+e15*15+e14*14+e13*13+e12*12+e11*11+e10*10+e9*9+e8*8+e7*7+e6*6+e5*4+e4*3+e3*2+e2)/171
The number you divide it from is the sum of the average. For 18, the sum is 171 and the recent one is the highest number, the one level before then would be the second highest number all the way to one. This average may show more accuracy in the long run.

06.22.2011

2011-06-22T13:09:00.001-07:00

Another day is over and the market remains above the fibonacci support of around $33.00 and below the fifty average around thirty-nine which has been the case for going on two months now. The fed spoke today, and I have no idea what they said. This is all a horse and pony show for myself because I know whats really going on behind the carpet. This fiat currency is a cancer in itself and we are trying to keep the cancer alive and everything we can to make the cancer happy? Is this what our lives have become? I refer to this fiat monetary system as very cancerous because of how it has destroyed many human beings. Debt is the most obvious situation, but even gambling addictions as well as crimes are related to this monetary system. Because guaranteed debt in itself is the number one direct shot towards the people, when I hear anything from bankers about what interest rates are all about then I don't want to know or participate in such an evil act. This is what it has all boiled to now as we have a boring market chart with sideways consolidation and I am out here ranting about stuff like this.

06.20.2011

2011-06-20T13:39:00.000-07:00

This range can be shown well here as all the moving averages have moved sideways within' the thirty-three to thirty-nine range the price action is experiencing. I have pretty much let this chart be and let the moving averages calculate themselves out. These include the five, ten, twenty, fifty and one-hundred averages as well as a few VWAPs (Volume weighted average price) that are all in stable condition mode right now. The trend line which was resistance at the fifty dollar high at the end of April will have a higher percentage chance of being taken down, but for this to happen the market needs to get bullish fairly soon as it has thus far made a higher low above the January mark of $26.30. The longer this market stays in this boring tight range, then the bigger the breakout(down) usually tends to be and its closing in on two months of this sideways action currently. At least this has given those people no excuses for not getting into silver because of the market being too fast as well not getting a pullback. Many waited in the spring for one, and for those whom did congratulations as it has come into play with an approximation of four million seconds of time that has come off the clock over the last forty-seven days. That's a lot of time for people to think things through for reasons of getting into silver and/or getting out of currency.

DIRECTION FROM 50 DAY

This indicator I have been looking at for a while to determine entry points. Nothing has changed as far as the analysis is concerned as the direction from the highest point is higher than the lower point and this means sellers still in control. The 18% from the lows is the resistance level that I need to see this level clear out which is pretty much the same as the $39 level that is a massive level. This $39.00 will stay as the key mark unless the market makes significant new lows to buy on strength. The advantage on buying on strength is this allows any of this wild selling to occur first. If the market goes down to $25.00 then this level will move lower with the market lower for an entry point on strength. I would personally rather buy on weakness and that is my personal preference only.

ALL TIME FRAMES

06.16.2011

2011-06-16T13:17:00.001-07:00

12.5 grams of paper for over 6oz of silver and 1.15 grams of gold.

This also works to 12.5% under spot overall and considering I spent a nice chunk above spot on the gold the discount came from silver. It's an interesting life in trying to get the best prices possible and technical analysis can let you do this, whether you buy on strength for a breakout move or on the dip after significant selling. I would consider this a dip with significant selling as the price has declined sharply and we now enter the seventh week of lower prices for the long term charts. I already bought twice since the market fell below forty per ounce and today was the third. I didn't want to buy unless I could get a deal I was happy with. Part of winning this silver and gold trading game within' bullion is knowing how to barter. In 2009 I would give offers that I thought was fair for both of us and it was easy to barter with this salesmen. When silver was around $24.30 CAD last year he said if you buy at least four, I can sell Eagles for twenty-five and the only thing I regret that day was not grabbing a couple more at that price from what I got. That is the cheapest I have ever managed to get top bullion that cheap from spot. Long story short is that when you get to know the traders as well as secrets to getting great trades then deals can be had.

Today I was offered pre 63 USA half dollars with the average year at 1944 at 90% silver for ten fiat a coin. It takes seventeen halves to make six ounces of silver and that is exactly what I purchased. There was nothing fancy about these coins as they are pure scrap value with some history and small collectors value attached. I wanted to see which '64 halves he has as those are the coins I like and none available. Because of the indecision in silver right now, it makes it difficult to pay premium on silver right now as the play is to wait on a breakout past forty or a move below thirty, and my number is twenty-nine with fibonacci going as low as twenty-six. The premiums will be a lot more if they go to twenty-six in comparison to the January lows of the same level and more so as it was making new thirty year highs in 2010. Therefore, the premiums are here to stay at these price levels and will stay this way until the price is much higher. Because of my waiting on silver, I got a little bit of gold (1/20oz) and the premium was high with ninety. I may have got it for eighty-five. At least he threw in a 1967 Kennedy Half in really good condition for free.

When you get little bits here and there, then it makes the transaction easier. The sad part about this is somebody sold those seventeen silver coins to him and I can only guess that the price given was well below spot if he turned it for 20% under. I would guess seven a coin and forty percent under spot, but I don't know. If you are ever looking to sell your silver or gold then I don't advice selling it to the dealer. If the dealer is giving you seven dollars a unit for something and you know there people eager to pay ten to twelve then why sell for seven? Use strategy to find buyers and with online advertising and social networking it is not that hard these days to turn them relatively fast for fiat. I am buying with a sell strategy when gold and silver are used as not uncommon trade and most likely common trade. When gold and silver are recognized as money, then I have myself a little. Fiat is held by confidence and right now people are confident enough to keep fiat the primary currency. Key word is held. It's holding on like a thread. There is nothing that can be done to add new confidence in the paper trash and I am surprised the masses don't see it yet, but it's now getting close to the anytime based on a large awareness of currency and politics that will change this world. It's not easy to guess when this will be, but its obvious its happening. Based on this type of an event, gold and silver will hold value over other real things which also have value. Those real things are items people use in their day to day lives and therefore those whom have passed on gold and silver and stored up on products that has maintained value. These people also win and example of this may be someone whom bought thousands of winter coats in a cold part of the region and can sell these back for gold and silver and maybe do better. Some have said this with food, but no matter what it is you are investing in you need to be aware how the changes will transpire. One of my predictions is that of scales both small and big that can weigh money (metal), foods as well as drugs. Whether you agree with drugs or not, it's a potential customer if you buy many of these. The problem you have is technological advancement, where I can buy $5,000 worth of scales and store them and in two years from now when that is the big thing, we could have scales more advanced in so many ways to reduce the value of the ones you held. For every buyer there has to be a seller and because of this you may want to visualize ways of how you are planning on selling any investment you make. I'll try and do more rants like this on the blog every so often but not too often.

DIRECTION FROM FIFTY DAY

If this is your first time popping into the silverlog this chart shows how far the current price action is from the highest highs and lows this market has. The low was $32.30 area and the high was $49.80 area and within' exponential math the middle point is barely above $40.00 per ounce. As long as the price starts with a three then the sellers are in control over this market. I don't see much pressure overall because I know for sure that this ponzi system is collapsing and the daily movements mean nothing. However, it is only price that pays, and we can hypothetically assume that a meal at your favorite restaurant is worth the same as a silver dime, and unless you leave that dime as a tip to the server then then that silver dime is only worth ten cents to them. I may sound a little optimistic or pro silver when I say this, but I am confident that there will come a time where 999 rounds and scrap silver coins will be accepted very commonly in trade.

06.15.2011

2011-06-15T14:18:00.000-07:00

The silver market ended the day at $35.82 and really stayed flat today as the broad market indices kept retracing lower. This current trading range is boring and I am going to stop focusing on the short term unless it becomes really important. It is important to be aware of the short term when looking for buy and sell signals. My outlook on this market is that we have been in a thirty year dip and therefore its very scary to sell any silver at this moment. I explained this a few weeks ago and will do another soon on dips, because on this chart, I would have had a hard time buying past $13.00 an ounce in 1979 because it was soaring n a spectacular bull market reaching areas never seen before as I wait for a pullback. The pullback occurred in 1980 and its been a thirty year pullback as the methodology that I use for buying pullbacks is to buy on the way down all the way up until it has a decent enough gain past the previous highs. In this case the gain should be over $100.00 and because I don't want to buy at the top of a market I would probably want to not be a buyer above $75.00. Once the market goes to $100.00 then the peak areas come into play as possible areas to sell on a technical level. On a fundamental level the currency is dying and I would rather sell my silver like I sell my fiat dollars today and that is to buy stuff with it when its accepted as cash and thus use the charts to buy more silver. I have not bought a single microgram of silver in about a month and I will stay on the sidelines until I can get a break below $30.00 or a move that shows a confirmation break above the $39.00

06.14.2011

2011-06-14T14:16:00.000-07:00

MORE STUFF COMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS (I HOPE)

DIRECTION FROM 50 DAY HIGH/LOW

Not much has changed since I last shown this image last week as for the buyers to get into control the direction from the low (orange line) needs to be above the direction from the high (blue line). Sellers still show the control and because this is a manipulated market then trading fundamentals do not work unless you count the manipulation as part of the fundamentals which is a smart move. However, because the powers that be have a policy of secrecy and harm amongst its citizens it can be very hard to see what they have planned. I say harm because they believe in a debt based system and because they control the monetary system the way that they do that is the reason I buy physical silver. I am waiting either for a confirmation breakout on the bullish side which will result in the orange line going higher than the blue line or a move below $30.00 per ounce.

DAILY CHART

Day Twenty-nine is now over as day thirty comes into play. This is the amount of days that silver has stayed and held above the key $33.58 fibonacci support level as well staying below the fifty day moving average that is flat between thirty-nine and forty per ounce. It's tough to say how long we will stay in this range because I don't know what the banking elite have planned, but if the market breaks support and moves to the next support level, then we will have some more panic amongst the silver community because they think the market is random or they think the market is free. The market is overall boring and until it breaks to one side or the other I will be less active on this channel.

WEEKLY CHART

Silver is holding on the eighteen period average of weekly lows like a thread now and this is not a good thing for those who want higher prices. It's a great thing if you are looking to buy more silver as it seems as if the market does not want to hold on. The thirty-two to thirty-three area will be most likely short and intermediate term support, but that also doesn't mean for this to be the case. After all the market is still in an indecisive direction phase and because it is below the declining five day average that might be bullish short-term. Normally it is the opposite that it is bearish when this is the case. It's tough to say because the market is not currently that easy to day trade and the only safe bet that I see when looking at these charts is exchanging fiat fake debt notes for physical silver for long term holdings. Final note on this paragraph is that as long as the market closes above the eighteen period of lows then I will keep the market is a cautiously bullish mode, but its getting very close for me to move this to neutral.

06.13.2011

2011-06-13T14:37:00.001-07:00

Markets took a hit today as we move closer to the $33.58 key fibonacci support level. Still in the boring range, just now it is on the bottom end of the range and the prices for silver remain very cheap for the bullion. I have been busy and not able to update this page as much as I would have liked and today I have seemed to have stumbled upon a system that can pick stock winners and give exact buy and sell levels. I have never found a system that can work so easy, and it is currently in the tracking stages now. I am tracking the Dow30 component and I have done ten of them so far (one third) and this methodology has a 53-6 record and an average return of 2.54% over the last 20 months or so. I don't like the brokers of this paper game and shitcoins is another I am not too found of either. I will most likely sell this information on here since it does not to anything productive for society other than those whom can do something with the fiat money they make in a productive manner. I still want to test this out some more, but lets say fiboancci did it again :)

06.10.2011

2011-06-10T13:17:00.000-07:00

Update coming later tonight or Saturday

06.09.2011

2011-06-09T13:15:00.000-07:00

END OF DAY REPORT

The twenty-sixth day has been completed as we enter day twenty-seven for Friday. With the market currently trading $37.55 it is a little ways away from the fifty day moving average which is currently set at $39.32. It is not easy to tell which direction this range will break from and how long it will remain in this sideways consolidation. The longer a market trades sideways or through that of correcting through the time then the bigger the breakout or breakdown is going to be. As the days move in many longs and shorts get trapped in this market and if the market goes higher then this means that long positions will love their play to go long as well as other longs coming in as breakout signals appear as well as having shorts cover for a loss because the market breaks down. The same is true if it breaks lower that the shorts are happy with their gains and longs have to get out because its breaking down. This also can add selling pressure with people playing the trend. Currently the volume again was low as it was a hair lower than yesterdays record setting low volume once again making another two plus month low in volume on the phony shares (phony as in not real physical silver)

Shorter term the market is showing nice breakout signs. I am still not convinced as the intermediate term is looking more and more neutral every day. However, the chart shows us that the declining five day average was resistance on June sixth and then pulled back a small amount. Then the next day the on the seventh of June it got above the five average and was not able to breakout higher, however it did not breakdown either and the price has gotten above this average at the end of the day and found support at the five a few hours after the market opened today. What would be ideal for the market to keep rallying to at least $38.00 and then come back to the fibonacci level shown on the chart as support rather than resistance.

06.08.2011

2011-06-08T13:17:00.001-07:00

END OF DAY REPORT

Intra day today the move happened as the New York markets were closing up shop and the spike higher resulted in fourteen minutes of time and gained thirty cents on the spot price and not quite one percent. This is all occurring within' a very neutral market priced wise based on the paper game. The paper game told us that only 2.2 million shares were traded in the final thirty minutes which is the lowest in at least two months, but definitely the lowest since Apr 12. This volume that surged todays rally looked huge on the chart (not shown here) as there was only 30,000 volume per minute until the last few moments containing an average of 90,000 in the final few moments. For the day there was 24.8 million total trade which is the lowest volume on SLV since April 8. The high for volume was 295 million on May 5 which was the big candle that has started this long range. The move on that day seen silver lose ten percent on the New York time frame after it had lost over 5% over night. The awareness for this ponzi scheme is growing which is a good thing, because these moves we see are not true market fundamentals for price movements towards commodities. Final point is the ranges that are boring and trade for so long tend to end in a huge break out/down. Today there was a very tight range on the 1m chart that spanned a little over an hour. It ended with a massive breakout. In the spring and summer of 2010 it was the same thing with the $17.50 to $19.50 range that broke out huge to the upside. Over the longer term we have this range from $33 to $39 that is setting up for the potential for a big breakout or breakdown.

HOURLY CHART

The indicator at the top of the screen shows the rate of ascent or decent on the five average. If its below the 0% line then it is declining and if its above the 0% then it is rising. It is currently at 0.0018985%. The move at 3pm to 4pm brought the five day average into positive territory and therefore its literally a rising five day moving average and realistically it is a flat average that is showing much indecision. This could be the time where the market breaks away from the five day average and thus resuming the intermediate bull market and it is very hard to tell right now. What would be ideal would be a move to the upper fibonacci level and then pull back to where previous resistance was found roughly around $36.80 to $37.00. Another ideal way would be for the fibonacci to be little to no resistance and break out towards $38.00 and the find support at the fibonacci line rather than resistance. Again it is difficult to say where we are heading in the short term as we enter day 26 of this boring volatile range.

RATE OF ASCENT/DESCENT on 5 day avg

Two main things I find interesting on this chart. The first is how obvious the selling in May was not to the normal and the only time within' the last year that we have had a move of these grand proportions. In fact this would be close to the moves of 2008 selling which I will try and get out later on for the longer term view of this chart. The other thing that I notice is that there has not been a big up push on this chart. The entire run always seems to show it tops at 0.075% and a couple times it went above 0.1%. With the move lower reaching the proportions of -0.25% then a move to the positive level of 0.25% would mark 20-30% gains in less than one week period. Those days I feel are coming (probably later this year), but definitely not guaranteed. SLV ended the day with a declining five day average where as the actual spot price ended the same time frame of 4pm EST with a rising five day average. The reason for this is because the comex average shown above tracks all time frames and the SLV only for their own and this tells us over the last five days that the market has done worse in USA from 0930 to 1600 New York time compared to the off hours.

Long term rate of ascent

This chart is meant to go in radio waves type format or like energy types of charts by the nature of how the markets move and the way they are calculated. Chart is calculated by taking the average of the High, Low & Close and then taking its rate of increase from week to week levels. This image shows us that this one week selling that occurred six weeks ago was the largest one that this market has endured this decade over a short period of time. The move as of yet has not taken out the intensity of 2008 because sixty percent was taken off the high price and so far only a third or thirty-three percent has been the decline. These moves are not normal to occur and because of the way our banking system is setup this shows me more signs of the currency collapsing as a precursor event. It will probably only take one big spike to the upside that will set us to the next level and maybe two total as the dollar collapses. Finding the when silver will break into higher levels is hard to do, but what isn't hard is to use a chart like this as a gauge for such with it making new highs.

This chart shows the last few years a little bit better and the difference from 2008 was how it was at the -10% area a few times and only once here thus far. Since the 2008 market crashed this is in fact the first time its had a real break below -5% price differential. I used this chart and formula because its the easiest way to see how the rate of ascents/descents would have looked on a long term level and this does a decent job as such.

06.07.2011

2011-06-07T14:37:00.000-07:00

POST MARKET UPDATE

The market is currently having battle with the five day moving average and the one day average has crossed through with the declining five day. Just because the five day is declining does not mean the market is in an intermediate term down trend because it needs to confirm the move going lower by breaking below $35.00. If it stays above this level then the market will move to a neutral state instead. If the five day average starts to move higher with the market going up, then this will cause a bear trap or that of a failed move by breaking below the five at the start of the month and not reversing the trend. Often times from failed moves can create a fast move in the opposite direction. The big level is the Fibonacci mark at $37.32 which is what is needed to make the selling on this chart to become a failure and blue skies ahead (for now) as the market inches closer to that $39.00 level. All this is happening within' the range for five weeks between $33 and $39 area and I find this market to be that of boring trading within' this range, but it has given many people some time to think about their fiat debt notes and whether they are ready to invest in the real physical metal (Not the paper crap).

1979 COMPARISON UPDATE

The comparison chart has managed to go well below the levels from 1979 after the same amount of days on the breakout level and I will continue to focus on this chart until there is no need to anymore either because it has fully compared itself in the time required with 1979 or the comparison flat out dies. Just because it is well below the level back then does not mean the comparison is dead because the market then traded sideways after the same amount of days as it is now. I often wonder if the market is not free then how will the price manage to go these highs levels and it confuses me the more that I think of this. I realize that its the bankers that control the market and they want to suppress the price to keep their fiat dollars alive and for now I'll just play the song "You can't always get what you want" by the Rolling Stones and leave it at that. I realize its the people on this planet that need to lose faith in the currency and that is what my end game is all about.

06.06.2011

2011-06-06T13:09:00.000-07:00

Blogger will not allow me to upload this chart right now which is for the intra day markets. It can be found here

END OF DAY REPORT

Todays rally was met with resistance at the five day moving average and it was its first resistance touch since it has declined. It did find support at the significant fibonacci level and now the short term outlook is very cloudy and neutral. If the five day average is not resistance and a new leg lower than this will bring us a failed move of falling below this five average which should spark a move to the huge $39.00 level as well as the fifty day moving average. If this is resistance however and it makes new legs lower than the next level is the $33.58 area which has been support now on two occasions. The market has also having a head and shoulder pattern (one shoulder) as it might make a lower high on the next move and thus for a right shoulder. The name is irrelevant and the reason why it works well or what the pattern is trying to show is that the support level at $36.50 and it would be devastating if this level gets nullified.

15M Line Chart

This chart I look at once a week or so and today is one of these days. The trend line which increases 0.6% each trading day that started back during the beginning of this rally is my line used to define parabolic moves. I need to see this level have a confirmed breakout of this level for me to say, "Yup the dollar is on verge of a collapse and we are not much longer!" However, that is not the case now when we are currently trading around $36.50 and the trend line is at $57.94 right now and a sixty percent up move is required just to test this level. A confirmed move means it has ripped through the level with massive gains above it (at least 25%)or to find a breakout signal which is often times breaking the level and find support at the line and then showing breakout signals. Of course this is a long time away, but if and when this happens I will report this to be such the case. For now the range for $33.58 and $39.40 is the big picture and a break below could create fast moves as the volatility is here and I don't think we will stay in this range too much longer and it could be an up break, however the longer we trade sideways the larger the breakouts usually tend to be.

Direction from fifty day High/Low

It seems 25% will be the cross level and at 25% this would translate to $41.00 as an approximative area. The overall range has the market stuck between 33 and 39 and the levels are currently in this direction. I would once again point out that it is not normal to go from a time frame where the market makes a new fifty day high and then moments later makes a new fifty day low. That is what has happened and the sellers are in control currently on this manipulated market and if they could manipulate to go down to this level, then they can sure as heck bring it down another leg lower. The support on this chart was found at eight percent and this translates to around $34.75 as important level.

06.03.2011

2011-06-03T09:51:00.001-07:00

END OF DAY REPORT

It is funny that only the few seconds of technical analysis that was given in part two of Thursday's video actually came true. That was "maybe we come down a little more so that the Fibonacci lines will match up" and that happened perfectly when the market bottomed today at $35.10. It seems like it is too much of a co-incidence that these fibonacci levels match up well with previous support, resistance and other key areas rather than random spots. The resistance met today from the morning rally was met at that key $36.50 level and if it can manage to make a higher low then taking this mark will be expected. It has now been over a hair over a month in time since the short term major panic crash setup most likely by the banking elite and it has consolidated for a decent amount of time. I will continue to make and follow these charts if they are helping. Don't tell too many people, but the price movements are not real and there are still many (if not all of them) that are selling their 999 silver for only a small percentage above the price the government tells us it is which is an extremely free market (Free for the powers that be to manipulate). The revolution it growing stronger and the video below is from south park which had a great skit that i thought was funny. There is swearing in this video.

06.02.2011

2011-06-02T13:17:00.001-07:00

2245PM EST UPDATE

This market currently is right at the eighteen day average of closes and the average of lows is currently at $35.18 giving it more reason why that level is so important to be held. I have added what looks close to that of bollinger bands which I will explain how I calculate them at the end of this mini article. This is designed to find areas where the market is oversold or overbought. Bollinger bands are great and all, but unless I can calculate them myself and understand what it's meaning really is then I refuse to put this within' part of the analysis. Currently the low end of this band is right below $31 and not shown yet on this chart, but on the way down it crashed through this level which is set so that if it makes it to anyone of the bands it has done very well as I have used volatility to help determine how high or low these bands should go. The method that I used to calculate this is I find the average volatile moves over the last eighteen periods which is the calculation of (High-Low)/Low. Therefore the upper band is triple the volatility plus one multiply the average of highs. Therefore right now the average is $36.95 and the average volatility over the last eighteen days is currently at 5.1% and there triple this number to 15.32% and 36.95 x 1.1532 is $42.61 and this gives me the band level. For the lower side I take the opposite percent level for a negative and the opposite of 15.32% is 13.28% to the upside and take that percentage off the average of lows set at $35.18 which is calculated to around $30.50.

DAY 21 OF SIDEWAYS MOVEMENTS

The total amount of shares that has traded on SLV since the start of May is 2.4 billion shares. This is pretty much 2.4 billion ounces because one share of SLV is designed to be in or around an ounce of silver. It takes us three years to mine this much and yet it is traded over the last few days. It's easy for the high frequency traders which is supercomputers without a soul of consciousness executing trades faster than any human could even come close to thinking and this is all fine with the people? After all on May 6, 2010 the stock market suffered a flash crash and the people were all fine with this and I guess those who got screwed over by it either sucked it up and didn't say anything and even if they did say anything it would have not got them far. For the dollar to collapse and for humans to get freedoms we desire then it is up to us to do something about it. If you are sitting back on your sofa waiting for the government to fix the problems, then that is not very productive and if anything counter productive. It's a fairly simple to task to do and the easiest part of this is to tell the banks to Fv(k off and this is done by not playing their casino game of equity trading. This is done by not using their service for a safe and closing the accounts completely or putting the absolute bear minimum in their and when you get paid, then send email transfer for some silver or withdraw the currency from the bank machine. There are so many things that can be done, and this is the biggest one. I am not a financial advisor but you would be hard pressed to find one that suggest the same thing that I am here by saying goodbye to the debt system. Another thing I suggest that a financial advisor will not is to wake and help as many people that you can with information on currency and government policies. This could be on 911 being an inside job, how money is created, their policy on chem-trails and Monsanto as well as the pharmacy/fluoride issue. There is so many different topics that need to be addressed and it seems more clear to me that its the people that are going to be the ones to collapse the currency! Why would the government want to collapse the dollar? This is their tool that is used to keep us enslaved and what they are trying to hold on to (maybe a thread).

DIRECTION FROM 50 DAY HIGH/LOW

It looks as if we have established a resistance level around 18%. The last two great buying opportunities came when it was breaking 10% and it won't be the case here because of the higher volatility requires a bigger push. The blue line is still above the orange one and what would be nice is if this could consolidate from 10-20% for a few days or a week and then finally break past the 20% range where the blue line will go below the orange one and thus set another buying opportunity. The fact that the market made a 50 day high and then a few days later made a 50 day low is not normal market action and I have tried to not make it a secret that the paper trading game is a little bit shady.

06.01.2011

2011-06-01T09:31:00.000-07:00

23:17pm EST UPDATE

The five day moving average is now declining but will not consider this a bear market until the support level at 36.25 with a confirmed breakdown. If it holds this level then this will either mean the market to go neutral and thus the five day average will trade sideways as well or it will get back above the five and reverse back to the upside and thus making todays selling a failed move technically speaking. Still kind of sickening that we have to rely on a market that is so heavily manipulated or far free having free price movements. In my opinion the only way this should be traded, is by trading silver. This means to buy you either take the lowest ask price offered or put a bid order in yourself and wait. If you want to sell then choose the bid price offered or put an ask order in and make sure you have the silver in some sort of NON FRACTIONAL bank that has the silver or you can deliver to the bank. When you consider we have many millions traded per day the same silver can be swapped dozens of times per day, assuming of course it is real silver. High Frequency trading can buy at 37.20 and sell it back at 37.28 two minutes later and then make these two or five or short trades hundreds of times per day. This is not productive for society at all in my opinion however if people are still interested in buying/selling at these levels I will continue to update these charts as people whom are selling close to spot are doing so and thus they are complying with the price controls that controls the world financial system. Thats all I got for tonight. Be back late Thursday morning either on the blog and/or youtube.

END OF DAY REPORT - Article below will explain a lot of the action, but gold and silver traded different and this move was specific towards the silver market today as silver got crushed as gold went up today. Don't ya love this manipulation? We'll you don't have to, but the corruption of dollar manipulation is the reason I buy the physical. Next update will be later tonight between 11pm and 12pm est.

UPDATE 405 EST

No support was found at the fibonacci mark and it kept going lower. This doesn't say fibonacci was a failure other then realizing from adjusting to the message of the market that the failure to not find support at this level created a fast move to thus make a double top formation. It really isn't official until it can break below the key support mark, but when you look at todays volume with SLV it seems something was going on because at 3:24pm the volume brought 250,000 which isn't that large, but it was the highest it had seen in about an hour but at 3:38pm there was 2.7 Million volume (or 2.7 million ounces of silver) was dumped and the SLV shares dropped forty cents in that minute alone and it followed with more selling and high volume. That hour had a 4% move top to bottom as the silver price lost over a dollar. Volume overall was still light with only a little over fifty million ounces being traded (paper silver of course) and of that 13.5 million was traded in the last thirty minutes alone from 3:30 to 4:00pm. As far as I know, APMEX and other sites are accepting price controls for silver, however they do charge an x% higher from what the government tells them to sell it for and as I type this at 4:14pm it is $36.74.

UPDATE 1230PM EST

Normally the market is really volatile from around 6am to 10am eastern time and then it cools off a little bit and today is quite the opposite. At 10:01 the movements got really wild as the market sunk fast and furious which was followed by a huge lift higher and yet another big move lower. It's very tough to say what is going on now as the five day average test is still in process. The market has been experiencing lower volatility over the last few days and this move is most likely yet another precursor to something else. The difference top to bottom over the last couple hours or so is from $37.55 to $38.44 or that of 89 cents. The move is a little over two percent and is still tame from what he had encountered a few weeks ago. After all the average move during a sixty minute period was two percent and therefore still peanuts to what we have been finding. I figured the chances were good that a fifty day test would occur before a breakdown of the five and this can still be the case because the five has been holding the early stages of the test and that is very normal. The five day average is rising and its pretty much at the level now showing cautious and bullish. The fifty day average is flat and below it and showing neutral action being pretty close to its level and the two hundred average is rising and has not been tested or touched in around nine months. This makes it very hard to get a clear direction right now and especially when the market is driven within' fraudulent methods. I was about 70-75% confident on the five and that has been reduced to 65-70% because its not uncommon for moves like this to occur where it can go above and below a key level a few times before it breaks away either up or down.

05.31.2011

2011-05-31T14:20:00.001-07:00

UPDATE 1150PM EST

The five day moving average currently at $37.83 maybe tested very soon. The one day moving average is rolling over and I am very confident this five day average will hold as support and that we will move towards the fifty day moving average. Therefore if we have any selling in the next little while I would expect that area to be where a bounce will come from. If we survive the 8am to 10am EST thrashing tomorrow because if it doesn't occur or its a small dosage then I would be thinking the push higher is near. If those bears are right then the push lower should occur very soon, however I don't expect this to happen. The poll on the right has surprised me as many people are newly finding out the corruption of how currency is made and showing growth to be exponential. In 2008 I was researching this for a quite a while and as of now I am the only vote for finding this out in that year. This is what is going to crash the currency and thus tangible assets will hold its value. Thanks for voting and stopping by. Have a good night/morning.

05.30.2011

2011-05-30T10:55:00.000-07:00

05.27.2011

2011-05-27T14:56:00.001-07:00

HOURLY SHORT (End of Day Report)

The market is showing some nice breakout signs and ready for another test of the significant $39.00 area which has several fibonacci blocks and the fifty day moving average. Boy would this create a big failed move if the fifty is not much resistance and maybe this will be the top for the next wave lower with higher volume coming. That is tough to say and as long as we are between $32 and $39 (over 20% range) then the market will be in the boring mode and the fast moves coming soon. The currency is dying and the advantage to the USA dollar index losing is it least creates the awareness to the people that the dollar is losing strength. It tracks fiat debt notes over other fiat debt notes over other fiat debt notes, but the story-lines that occur on the propaganda press would be enough to signal inflationary worries and concerns. The video below explains more to why the currency is dying. (at the least the USA one versus others)

GOLD ANALYSIS

The trend lines shown in this chart are parallel and have the same distance on each higher level. The gold market is looking to head towards level four bull market as it is breaking through the current resistance field that was first resistance in 2008 when it reached a thousand per ounce. No reason at all to think that this market is going to slow down and if anything the reason is for this market to keep going higher as the currency keeps being devalued with fiat money. Long term I am a little concerned with gold's future because of golds tangible uses in what I predict to be the end of a materialistic world, but at the same point it would expected that this unique metal would be needed in some sort of new industrial use and if it is needed in large quantities the scarcity issue will become a problem. Short term however this is a great hedge against fiat paper inflation.

SILVER TO GOLD RATIO

This chart is the polar opposite of the gold to silver ratio and thus the silver to gold ratio and how many mg of Gold is needed to buy an ounce of silver. This chart exploded large and has now corrected very large. It is at 700 or at an area where twice resistance was previously met. The historic ratio is around 16 to 1 and that would work out to 2,000 on this chart and we are a long way from being at that level. My personal belief and calculated research is that the ratio is going to not only go back to its historic sixteen to one mark but even go lower thus this chart should remain bullish and maybe go over three or four thousand. The intrinsic value for gold is very weak in comparison to silver and the silver market seems to be more suppressed than the gold market is. During these end times when we are going through the stages of the end of the currency these charts should remain volatile as panic sets in the currency market.

SILVER more VOLATILE than GOLD

This chart is showing only a potential breakout of silver containing more volatility and with the currency dying right now it most likely will keep going higher. In the late 70s the Silver market went from around $6 to $50 while gold went from $400 to $800 showing much larger gains. Lets assume gold reaches $4,500 and thus gains 200% then the most likely scenario is silver gaining over 1000% and having more wild movement. If silver makes these kinds of gains that would mean over $300 per ounce and moves like this in a quick period of time need to have something unusual for this to be the case, but its not every year a currency dies.

No more silver commentary on the blog and I'll try and get one video out (probably on Sunday) but there is not much to go over now and will focus on the gold charts I promised later tonight as well as any odds and ends that I can think of. If you have any suggestions or requests then please mail me with a comment here, on youtube or @endlessmountain on twitter

05.26.2011

2011-05-26T14:07:00.000-07:00

DAILY SHORT

Day 17 of this battle between the fifty day average (resistance level) versus the fibonacci line at $33.58 (Support level). Someone commented on one my videos earlier that they wanted me to say "boring" again and I guess I have no choice and thus even though the intermediate trend is higher and bullish its going to be boring as long as its in this range to the area of $39.00. If it does break $39.00 this will cause many shorts to exit out of their trade as well as add more liquidity in buyers to the market. A break below this level will get some more people to panic and some more people to celebrate nice physical buying opportunities as the disconnect grows further. I think its likely that the breakout will be to the upside but in the binary of system of choices that means it has to be greater than a 50% chance and it probably isn't much higher to do so. Therefore, i'll label this as boring until the break and the lower volume on SLV should spark a rally soon, and if you are looking to buy on strength I would wait until the 50 day has a clear breakout.

HOURLY SHORT

Stabilizing so far above a newly rising five day moving average and below a newly declining one day average. The bolder black line is a very big level which was drawn weeks ago and fibonacci once again showing its true colours of being very accurate. At this point the market is trying to find direction as the last few weeks show major bearishness and the long term are bullish. The long term also says its normal or not a surprise for there to be more selling based on where this market is. No guarantee that the market will go lower or go sideways to the five day average, but it looks like a test is coming soon. We still need to climb above $39.00 and really into the forty dollar range to nullify the bear trends that have been haunting us over the last few weeks. As long as the $35.00 holds then I like the short term future of the market.

GOLD ANALYSIS

The trend lines shown on gold are parallel lines (equal rate of increase/decrease for each one) and connect three main points. The first one is the support level that has been touched around seven times and has not been tested since it lifted away from the 1300 area back in January. Today that level is around 1410. The middle line connects several resistance points which was last hit when gold came close to the 1600 level. The highest line that is shown connects the two times that gold got above this trend line at the start and end of 2009. I think this line is going to be important because a break above this with confirmation would really be another sign that would show the end of the currency and moves to the explosive gains many expect. If you think Gold is going to $3,000/oz or higher because the currency is collapsing or the end of the mayan calendar then there will be no choice but to have a major break above this trend line. For now, this level has been a great trend channel that has lasted for almost three years running now.

SILVER PRICED IN GOLD

If you are looking for the gold to silver ratio, then this is it (backwards) and normally when the gold to silver ratio goes up (this going lower) it means that both silver and gold are selling off and when the ratio goes lower (this going higher) then they both go up. In fact the ratio on this chart went up better than double (ratio losing more than half) and the price of both gold and silver went higher. Silver went from $18 to $47 and gaining over 150% from its value and gold gaining only around twenty percent. The bottom level I have from May 12 is only an (if this is a bottom) as tops and bottoms are well known after the fact and picking tops and bottoms is a very difficult thing to do. Those whom can consistently pick tops and bottoms are that of liars although by using fibonacci you can be profitable long term in doing so, but after silver found great support earlier this month at $39 (LOL, it did not find support) you can see why you can not be right all the time. There will come a time soon when we will need to measure not only the price of silver but many other assets in something like gold because the expiration date on the dollar is nearing.

SILVER IS MORE VOLATILE

Well this shows how much more volatile silver is over gold. How this is calculated is it takes the daily volatility of silver divide the daily volatility of gold. This is calculated by taking the (High-Low)/Low and thus how much higher was the move from its daily low. Today for example the high for silver was $38.85 and the low was $36.32 or a difference of 6.97%. Gold had a high today of $1,531.20 and a low of $1,515 for a difference of 1.07%. Dividing those two numbers gives us a difference of 6.51x more volatile than gold. Also the scaling has been changed for some major days of a larger differential because this one looked better. It makes me wonder if this increase of volatility of silver over gold is going to lead to something and am not sure what I will find when I display the last fifteen years or so which is what will be scheduled on this blog Friday evening with the gold chart, ratio and volatility differential. Stay tuned for that and have a great day.

05.25.2011

2011-05-25T13:26:00.000-07:00

60M CANDLE CHART (Short)

On the video earlier I mentioned that it looked like it could break the resistance trend line level that is shown based on having a half a dozen consecutive hits at his level without any support with the lower end and thats exactly what happened. I drew out a level where resistance could be met if broke that pattern and that has not happened or not yet anyway but what has transpired is the trend line of resistance becoming that of support. That is strong when a resistance uptrend becomes support and it seems the test of $39.00 is in the cards. There maybe some short term corrections with sideways action or a move down all the way down to possibly the five day moving average but it seems likely for this to be the case. The likelihood $39.00 either corrects a decent amount in price or time is very high. The message on the market for the short and intermediate term is bullish. The level after that is bearish or neutral and the more longer term levels haven't been bearish in years and the most long term analysis has had the market bullish since it first reached double digits over a half a decade ago. Therefore the bias overall is more bullish than it is bearish but I do need to see the $39.00 level to have a confirmed break out to be really excited. I said earlier that the next buying levels was either a move at $29-$31 (which didn't happen) or a bullish breakout. The confirmation for the five day is not enough and thus I need a confirmation breakout on the 50 day average. Stay posted to this channel for that update. I did buy a week ago because I was able to get a good price and by waiting for a move to $30.00 would have only saved me maybe $20.00 fiat Canadian notes because I only bought ten ounces. I will not buy again until June and most likely will wait until a move to $27 on the down side or the 50 average confirmation as well as the 50 day high/low confirmation which I have on this page.

DAILY CHART (Short)

Often times I look at charts and see this like a football game or hockey game (competition) and its XXX vs. YYY and in this case its the Fibonacci support, the vwap as well as the 100 day average (not shown) that is the support level versus the 50 day average and the massive amounts of fibonacci that are at the $39.00 area. One is going to win and that will either be the break above or the break below. The break above means this was it for the correction and the bull market will continue. the break below this level will be a larger correction with the $25.00 fibonacci mark coming into play. I think we have seen the bottom, but not sure as this is a manipulated market. It's logical to think that the powers that be could be pricing in the markets lower to not only get as many of us people whom are getting out fiat or riding the bull market to leave their positions but more importantly to acquire more silver at fire sale prices because you have to think the people who run this country know that the dollar is dying also and possibly are planning how they collapse it. I need to see tangible fundamental evidence to get out of my silver position and I don't see any logical reason right now to get out.

15M LINE CHART

The lines on this chart are a bunch a different ones including the 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 day and some vwap(s) levels as well. I don't even really check anymore on this specific chart other then let my computer do the number crunching for me. This chart gives a lot of information for the market direction. It has found support on many different levels and is now facing resistance at two with the red line that is flat (50 day) and the brown line looks like the twenty day average to me and the purple line looks like the VWAP from the start of the year highs. The uptrend line is currently at $56.61 and rising and this is still the level I need to see taken out with confirmation to call this market parabolic. I have been stating this since the fall of 2010 and I still live by it and especially since the $50 hit a month ago was at this line. In the last month the level has went higher by over ten percent.

Dates below show where this trend line was when it ended the month as well as the price
AUGUST - $19.58 (Price $19.35)
SEPTEMBER - $22.08 (Price $21.80)
OCTOBER - $24.88 (Price - $24.72)
NOVEMBER - $27.99 (Price - $28.08)
DECEMBER - $31.73 (Price - $30.87)
JANUARY - $35.58 (Price - $28.02)
FEBRUARY - $39.90 (Price - $33.87)
MARCH - $45.55 (Price - $37.67)
APRIL - $51.07 (Price - $47.98)
MAY - $57.59

DIRECTION FROM THE 50 DAY HIGH/LOW

The blue line (direction from 50 day high) is above the orange and thus the sellers still show to be in control. For me to use this indicator to go long the orange line has to be above the blue one. I also want to see some pattern develop where resistance is met at some level and its an easy clear breakout signal as the last two were. In August it had a resistance level of around 8% and I posted on the blog around $18.70ish as the level to go long. In February it established resistance at 11% or so and it had a nice looking breakout again. I will keep you posted on signals to go long from this indicator and right now its just "wait" for this to play out better. The move where it made new lows in May was the first time this happened ever on this chart which goes back to last years summer and thats impressive. Overall long term this is another indication of the bulls in charge within' this market and the selling we are seeing is a counter trend move.

05.24.2011

2011-05-24T14:55:00.001-07:00

END OF DAY MARKET REPORT

The market had a nice rally today and is now in an unconfirmed bull market on the intermediate term by that of the five day moving average. For this to be confirmed I need to see a test of support near or at the five day and then make new highs. Another way of seeing this is if it can get above this key fibonacci level around $36.75 and hold Above it for a few hours. This does not give clear buy signals as of yet because it is only up around 15% from its $32.00 bottom and has only retraced a small amount from the high of almost fifty dollars a few weeks ago. That level is more important to clarify buy signals for the longer term if you are looking to buy on strength. If people have been waiting for a pullback then there is no excuse to not get in now because you either should have taken advantage of those lower prices by now or wait for confirmation off a break past the fifty average. What I don't want to hear when the market goes past $40 and even $50 is "im hoping for a pullback" and I know I will hear it, but there is no excuse on price action for people to not be in the market.

VIDEOS

05.23.2011

2011-05-23T07:59:00.001-07:00

The direction from the 50 day low and high indicates how far the current price is from these levels. Being 40% from the high means that it needs to gain 40% to get back to the high seen around four weeks ago. This also can tell you if the bulls or bears are in charge by which one is higher than the other. By looking at this chart it is obvious that the bears are finally in charge as its been mainly bullish for months. To use this for an indicator to go long I would not only need to see it move past the 10% mark off the low but even over the last resistance point at around 15%. What would also be nice is if the market can establish a resistance level around 10-12% and then play on the breakout of the level. Tomorrow some time I will update the 1979 comparison.

POST MARKET UPDATE -Same old story, same old dance. Market is in a tight range and is having a hard time getting any momentum going. Lots of indecision and the longer it stays like this, the bigger the aftermath details will be. Take care everyone.

1100AM UPDATE - Still boring and still neutral as far as the short term is concerned. It has stayed above the five day moving average, however the average is not rising and thus it is flat. The longer this market stays in a boring trading range like this then the bigger the breakout(down) usually is and what happens is many long and short positions hold on to their position because they have their stops outside of the range. This means when it breaks one way or another with added participants you can get explosive moves one way or another. The fundamentals of what silver can do in industrial practices or the fact that we have a piece of fiat crap as currency means nothing as its paper traded game and if the powers that be want cheaper prices to get their silver then they will most certainly keep the price lower if they can. Until then I am going to be very less active on this channel and thus take a small vacation.

05.19.2011

2011-05-19T14:22:00.001-07:00

2300 EST UPDATE

What can I say other than "Boooring" and "Productive" (Maybe). It is definitely boring as the volatility has dried up very fast and this means returning back to price movements that we were used to for many months that preceded this high volatile sell off. I say maybe as in Booooring because this is only temporary and I truly believe that the volatility we have set to start off the month of May to be just setting the bar that will be taken out later this year. I say productive because it is holding well above the five day moving average and seems to be showing a break out sign from the one day average. Breaking $35.75 area of resistance and holding above that area for more than four or six hours or breaking past the $36.75 fibonacci area would be enough to confirm the intermedate trend to be bullish. Given how light this movement is and that its only a small retracement from the $49.81 high this gives reason for concern as far as how the paper ponzi market is concerned. Keep stacking!

END OF DAY REPORT

Support was found today at the five day moving average and this was the first test of support since the moving average has rose. I still would like it to see go a little higher to call this a confirmed intermediate bull market and thus its pretty much neutral right now on the short term. Long term the fifty day average which is currently around $39.00 right now is the big level that I need to see it go past for me to give any conviction for the longer term trend. On the super long term this selling that has occurred has been nothing more than a mere correction and for those protecting themselves against the fiat debt notes and dollar collapse then let the fire sale begin. These moves are all paper based moves and as I stated yesterday the prices given from us from the commodity exchanges are told to us by the powers that be and almost everyone complies by this and the price controls have been set for years. I have heard from people in the past that price controls never work out and there is a part of me that agrees with this. I'll be back after 10pm EST with another update.

05.18.2011

2011-05-18T14:28:00.000-07:00

WTF? What has just happened as at 10pm EST (7pm pacific) the market went crazy. It trade very unusual for the way any market should trade for about 20 minutes and now it kind of makes me wonder what is going to happen over night. I'll report more on this later on. TO see the chart, look at This on the One Minute time frame

END OF DAY REPORT

Market is holding the fibonacci retracement really well and as I said yesterday on the blog that this will at some point bring fast moves to the upside with not only the short covering for people profit taking this down move but even those whom have shorted at much lower prices (JP Morgan) do have a chance to do it now as its cheaper. Maybe JP Morgan knows in advanced that its going down to $28 or $30 or whatever because of inside info knowledge, but I either way it will happen. Throw in the fact that buyers adding to the pressure the move going to $50 the second time this year should be faster than it was earlier when the spring (north hemisphere) started. Then again I am going to say this now in advanced that all these moves are paper related whether it brings further selling or moves breaking past the $40 haven. Until people do something about it then its the paper market in control and because they tell us what the price is that means we have "price control silver" and are recommended to sell the silver in or around that price and so far dealers have complied.

05.17.2011

2011-05-17T14:23:00.000-07:00

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS

The trend line (not drawn in) that connects all the tops is where the market is at right now. Also if you draw a straight line at the 34.00 level and view the descending triangle you will notice that it has had a small pierce below this which could be setting us up for a nice bear trap and thus a fast move into the mid to high thirties. This area still can be setting up as support becoming resistance and the $32 level has not been tested. It came down to $33 this morning and thus it has set us up with a higher low (as of now.) Some people are talking about a new market opening (I think tomorrow) and thus this will now take in effect on the short term time frame. Also there are most likely a good combinations of people whom have shorted the market recently and facing nice profits they are going to have to cover as well as what is remaining from the shorts whom were shorting on the way up and can now unload. At some point a short covering rally will most likely come into play and when you mix it with the current volatility and volume movements this could set up for a nice seizable up day at some point very soon. I wouldn't expect this to occur on Wednesday but rather at some point after this selling pressure comes to an end and this bi polar paper market moves to mania phase.

VOLATILITY

That inverted head & shoulders I was talking about didn't find support at the ten day average and we are starting to see some days much more quiet than we have been used to over the past few weeks. The movements today was only $1.50 or so from the low to high and that is under five percent. That is quite light compared to the mass ten percent days that have been on our doorstep. That doesn't mean we can't have another wave lower before the intermediate trend changes, but it does give me more reason to think that this can start to at least stabilize at worst.

DAILY CHART/Fundamentals

I have liked this short term view of this daily chart because it shows how volatile these times have given us. This is likely the start of (SOMETHING) which will most likely change this world (DOLLAR CRASH?). After all this move from $50 breaking down to $32 as fast as it did would reflect normal market activity in a normal free market. (LOL) Now that we know that it is not a free market and these moves were caused based on the use of electronic financial instruments using fine calculus the market tanked at the start of this month. I don't exactly know how this dollar collapse is going to look on the charts, but the physical metal holders are guaranteed to have the ounces they have. If you buy a silver eagle your value is that of one ounce of silver. Whatever it's worth, it is worth and whatever a piece of paper is worth, well that is what it is wroth. I and many others have been talking for years about this dollar and economic collapse and it was predictable back then and its even more so now. I never planned on talking about the death of fiat money and then not expect it to happen. I expect people to be wondering why it is collapsing so fast and on this day, May 17, 2011 I respond to the future readers that it is not happening so soon as it has been taking its sweet little time. I don't know how many more shots of kimo that fiat currency can take, but its value is hanging on by a thread. Gerald Celente states "current trends form future results" and the current trend of massive debt on a global scale, technology destroying slave labour as well as many people waking up day after day on so many issues is going to create the future result. Revolution seems like a no brainer and that baby has been going on for years and its intensity at some point will really kick in.

05.16.2011

2011-05-16T13:23:00.001-07:00

END OF DAY REPORT

ANALYSIS AND MORE COMING AFTER 11PM EST

05.13.2011

2011-05-13T13:01:00.001-07:00

END OF DAY REPORT - May 13, 2011 shows an interesting imbalance with the silver and gold prices as gold was down and silver was up. More coming throughout the evening and mostly just charts without commentary. Click on any image to enlarge/save and the short candle has a fifty day average with the five and one on it and the long one does not have the five and has the 20/50 with a running average since the crash.

Blogger is back up and running, however I am not. I'll be back later tonight.

05.11.2011

2011-05-11T10:03:00.000-07:00

MARKET CLOSE UPDATE - Price action heading lower as the more longer term trends (the next level after intermediate) are starting to now head between neutral and in some cases bearish. The more long term trend is still in amazing uptrend and the reasons for the dollar collapsing remain the same. You can believe the hype that economic conspiracy nuts talk about with how debt is guaranteed and its effects on society or you can believe the hype that budget deficit will get under control from the other guys. Or you can connect the dots yourself and decide if the dollar is strengthening and if the value of silver is going lower? I am as confident (if not more) of silver breaking $100 into early 2012 and even still this fall because in order to make gains of over 200% in a year you need to have some trigger to do it and the corrective crash is one of them.

As far as this daily chart is concerned, the resistance met today was at the 50 day moving average and now that it is breaking from it make this trend go from neutral to bearish using the 50 as the indicator. That is the next level after the intermediate term frame (which I like the use the 5 day). This is also the second test of the fibonacci support level as well as the VWAP (line in the chart) and the 100 day average (not shown in this chart) and the more often support is tested then the more likely it will be taken out. Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like, but this move might be from TPTB getting all the silver they can at the cheapest prices possible and because they can time the market (because they manipulate it) they can buy what they can at these lower prices. It is a paper driven market and I am personally buying silver because I think silver is going to crash as is the stock market. Not by nominal terms, but by the exchange itself. I can't give a timeline other than soon and when I define soon it would be this decade and most likely much sooner than later.

UPDATE - 1800GMT

Resistance at the five day moving average and the very powerful fiboancci level of $39 was hit and the market has now come back to the 61.8% down target. if this $35.00 level gives in then it seems as if its trouble from here. However, with a bottom here this means that $39 will have a better chance of being resistance. Video scheduled to be uploaded in less than an hour from this post (1855GMT).

05.10.2011

2011-05-10T10:21:00.001-07:00

I'm not typing, rather I am going to watch about three or four videos (one per request) and place them on the blog. The first one is mine and have yourself a good day. Talk to you tommorow.

UPDATE 1300PM EST

Paper market is now at a major level of resistance where it has met the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% as well as the five day moving average as it is holding the one day for support. It's still bullish to go lower but only a small amount. This is why $35.00 area would be a good level because that would make a higher low from the previous $33.00 area. Also, resistance can work as any other regular level and keep on moving within' its current trend. The trend is an extreme reduction in volatility making it a little more volatile than normal from previous days and weeks. Intermediate term it is bearish and starting to get cautious because of the five day average. Super Longterm it is bullish because the move from $50 to $33 is peanuts in that it was only a 16% percent retracement long term (50 high / 4 Low) ^ 0.84 x 4 = 33.38. Using Fibonacci theory as long as you are above 61.8% of the range then its mode would be considered bullish which it is. As long as its above 76.4% then it is very bullish which is still the case. The next level is 85.4% which is $34.58 puts us extremely bullish and for a few moments it was below this level. If this is a top it is natural to bounce back and forth between these levels and very often find major support at the 61.8% mark (50/4)^.382*4 = $10.50. The other level is the (50/4)^.618*4 = $19.05 and its pretty clear that market should have more room to grow to the upside because of how impressive its break was as it found a test there ($19 area) in 2008 and again in 2010. The break has been made a few months ago and very often major resistance will translate to future major support. Of course this would cause a major disconnect in the physical market and Gold and the Dow Jones have both yet to find support at 1,000 since lifting off as well.

05.09.2011

2011-05-09T13:53:00.001-07:00

No write up today. Images should be self explanatory and on the hourly chart the one day average is now support and the five and fibonacci level coming soon is resistance. On the daily chart the VWAP and Fibonacci was support and the 50 day is resistance. If I have time later on, i'll make a video. If not, i'll talk to you tomorrow. Click on any image to enlarge/save.

05.06.2011

2011-05-06T13:42:00.000-07:00

Click on Any image to enlarge/save

END OF DAY OF REPORT

Who would have thought we would be wondering if the 200 day moving average will be support in the next week or if the $30.00 is going to hold up for us. What a week to say the least and if you are not on a severe yellow alert yet, you should be. People mention the shit hitting the fan scenario and it looks like this might be a piece hitting that fan. 300 million shares traded on SLV in one day is very alarming and the indications are now pointing to those moves I have been talking about for over a year now from 1979 where the up and down moves are wild. If you can get your hands on some, I think you are getting an amazing bargain if we are talking the physical metal. What scares me about lower prices if we break below $25.00 is actually getting the physical metal. On the way up to $25.00 about six months ago it was very easy to get these coins. The volume in real human beings going out and buying bullion is also rising large and not many are selling. Some will be shaken out right now and this is natural and temporary. I often times see delays in metals and just not having a particular kind even available. If the bullion dealers do not short the market, then they run the risk of selling at below cost or holding on to whatever remaining inventory they have. Bullion dealers like APMEX will short the silver market when they buy the metal and when you buy from them they would cover the portion you buy. This means they lock their commission in and direction would not mean anything to them. Therefore when you buy silver from APMEX you would force them to cover a portion of their short position. Regardless of the fact the disconnect would get very serious if it happens and the most likely scenario is the dollar collapse is starting and having money in banks now has higher risk than it did when April ended. Enjoy this ride and have a nice day.

Derek.

05.05.2011

2011-05-05T08:37:00.001-07:00

Update late night - If you look on the chart I put up it has not made a higher high since its current high of $49.81. Each following high peak has been lower in each occasion. The fibonacci from the high and the breakout levels is $33.57 and below that is the $31.28 massive level. This is the length I was expecting to occur over a six week period and it happens very fast. A dead cat bounce is also bullish or bearish after a crash because it only takes you to neutrality usually and crashes usually have them. The 38.2% on the way up is $39.52 and there should be a good chance for this to happen. It needs to get above $42.31 to make a higher high which is 20% away. Very normal for intermediate term trading and thus watch out for whats coming. Finally I need to talk about warning signs on the banking system and for the first time since 2009 I now see them. I'll explain that this weekend or Friday.

MARKET UPDATE

The crash continues and the steep downtrend lines only getting worse as the rate of descent keeps going faster to the downside. We are at an area of support which kind of means crap at this point as we are in crash mode which means buying here is a huge gamble as the crash can continue. At th same point the bullish moves are going to resemble the ones we seen when silver was $8-$10 per ounce because that came after the last crash. I said yesterday that $31 will probably not get taken out before we make a lower high and im not sure anymore. I've explained in the videos the manipulation with the margin rakes and the video below by Dr. Doom explains it well.

VOLATILITY & 911 UPDATE - 1225PM EST

This chart counts fifteen minute intervals only from 930am to 4pm EST. The biggest move on here was an 8% hit on the first 15 minutes of trading Monday. This is where SLV shares went from $44.47 to $41.25 and currently as I type this SLV shares are trading at $35.55 or down another 15% from the original blood bath. The SLV shares mirror the price of silver and if you buy stocks in any form you are thus making a casino wager on the price action of silver. You don't get silver and its obvious that they don't have all the silver that they say they do. Until the people do something to stand up for themselves then this kind of crap will continue. Free traded markets have a 0% chance of acting this way unless a real catastrophic issue happens on the supply & demand curve (That has not happened) and its obvious this is done by the powers that be. 911 WAS AN INSIDE JOB. Yet, so many people state that we are conspiracy theorists and that its not productive to talk about this stuff. I got news for ya, if people are clueless to whats going on then it should be worth talking about. The bankers (PTB) took down New York City's buildings and placed the blame elsewhere. What this shows you is they are capable of doing very evil deeds and thus by knowing this information then you can be ready for these kinds of moves and most likely anyone on this blog should not be sweating this move other than a case where they have to sell because of other financial institutions. I don't talk about the paper market as a fraud for something to do, I say because it is real and true. Nobody should be losing on this loss as anyone whom is getting out of the dollar is leaving only the minimum in their bank accounts. Sure you may lose if you sell your bullion today and you definitely would get less than you would seven days ago, but lets not forget the real reason why its important to get out of the dollar into silver which is long term thinking. Buying SLV shares and holding them for months is not going to do it and those whom don't get shaken out here and are in it for the long run will only lose if a real supply and demand issue affects them. The rate we are going, if we keep losing at this rate then we will be at one penny by years end and $3.00 on the forth of July. The New World Order has a track record of doing these kinds of things and my advice is to stand up to the bullies

11:37AM EST UPDATE

Observing the market fall from $48 to $36 or twenty-five percent in under four days I would consider to be that of a crash. However, this is the first time in my life I have ever seen a crash with a rising fifty and two hundred day moving average. Every single archive crash I have observed (with the exception of stocks and earnings reports) occurs in a down trend. When the stock market lost over twenty percent in one week it did that with a declining 50 and 200 average. The 50 was also declining in 1929 and 1987. When Silver crashed in 2008 it was the same thing. The bankers are not going down without a fight and the longer this goes on the bigger the disconnect will be within' the paper and physical market. The banking system has been very fraudulent in the past (and present) and they are sticking their policy of secrecy. Without giving me a vague answer, can you tell me what is actually going on right now? Is the demand for the bullion getting crushed? Have we had 20% deflation over the past four days or has 20% of the currency been destroyed? Has the national debt went to surplus? Has another metal or resource crushed silver in its uses? The answer is no and if the big banks continuously sell what they have then this is going to keep happening. Tomorrow is the one year anniversary of the flash crash when the stock market lost around 1,000 points in a day and 600 points over an afternoon cup of coffee. Goldman Sachs can do these kinds of things as can the other big bankers in this world. We need a conspiracy team to track what is going on because the associated press isn't going to tell us the truth. The interesting thing is I get comments like ... "This is retarded! I cant watched your videos anymore... Until there is some good news.." and I kind of wonder why this individual is on this planet and not some other one. The mayan calendar is ending and has been correct. Many people deny it for whatever reason and yet it keeps being extremely accurate. These things are supposed to happen on a conscious level of earth changes. Most people have access to the incorrect mayan calendar information because they find the incorrect sources. If you have seen my youtube channel you should see my mayan calendar video series as well as Ian Lungold's video series that explains how consciousness is changing. When the information given is currently matching with today's financial markets as well as other forms in this world only a fool would think its bogus or wrong.

05.04.2011

2011-05-04T13:52:00.000-07:00

Once every few weeks (or months) I go on a rampage and reply to all the comments. I read 98% aprx of the comments that come and I put a few good posts (I think) on almost everyones comment. To read them Click Here

MARKET UPDATE 820PM - Its not holing $39.00 well on the short term which indicates that a good dip is still available as well as the chances its not support to go lower. Maybe from 90% to 85% to be some level of support. Its pretty common that it pierces (going a little further) below the key support level and with the volatility at its current level that would bring it to around $37.80. This would be the last time I would buy bullion on weakness (unless you really wanna get outta fiat) until it gets to $33.00. I'll try and cover this on Thursday in buying on strength if it breaks $37.80 rather than on weakness. If it goes to $33 without the changing of the guards (5 day average has to rise to change) I will be very strong again like I am today for the buy. However, if we fail then it will only be on strength with a rising five day average. How you play paper and margin and all that crap, I don't care but if I have helped you out, your welcome.

POST MARKET REPORT

This $39 level is a very massive one that has a huge probability of finding support and a bounce from this level. That should mean the chances for an up session on Thursday is very high, but it is not guaranteed. Even if there is an up move in the market the odds do tell us that on the intermediate trend we will make a lower high and thus the first time you enter a big level is the strongest point for support. If the market rallies six or seven percent and then falls back then it won't be strong to find support there as it is now. We have had heavy selling over the last few days and an unprecedented move of over 20% from the highs of $49.81. I've stated on the blog yesterday why it was done and if are familiar with how fiat money is created as well as a little knowledge on how the paper ponzi market works these moves should not surprise you. Even through it is a manipulated market, I still expect this area to be support for a bounce. This may not be the bottom for the intermediate trend, but further selling would shock me a little bit, however it would not surprise me. The reasons $39.00 is massive support is the following:

50 day average of Highs and Lows is currently at $39.03
The Exponential 38.2% down Fibonacci from the 2011 Lows is $39.02
The Exponential 61.8% down Fibonacci from the March lows is $39.05
The Exponential 23.6% down Fibonacci from the 2010 breakout lows is $39.04

05.03.2011

2011-05-03T07:19:00.000-07:00

Pure blood bath in the market as its been a very wild roller coaster. This market can go lower and $39.00 as a conservative target now seems like a sure shot now to be tested soon. It is oversold now and is due for a bounce, but as long as there are people willing to sell and not enough new buyers it will go lower. If it goes lower, let the disconnect begin and if not its a super failed move, but that aint the case and this is a intermediate bear market now. To those people who say "it has even started" I have to tell you. "It has just started" and although I expect volatility to slow down for a little bit, we are on our way to those explosive days ahead and movements today are the reason why I hold silver because of how corrupt the world banking system is. In a sane world that values their assets you would think that a move that takes one fifth of its value away would be catastrophic for its uses going lower, inventories and productions getting way to high and for that to occur in less than forty-eight hours would because some sort of storm came in and then BOOOM! Well a storm obviously did occur and its a financial storm of some sort. The dollars still going to do and to think that the world bankers are not going to go down without a fight is insane. I heard again today that they raised margins again on silver and I don't know, nor do I really care. This margin crap and SLV ETF gambling is nothing more a ponzi scheme and people need to know this now more than anything. There have been many people betting on margin whom are getting crushed right now and many people have made more money this week shorting it down or cashing in their PUT contracts than people make in a year doing hard work that could help this planet evolve in a positive manner. If I were to put $25,000 on SLV PUTS at the end of last week and cash them at the end of the day today I could easily turn these into $125,000 and make 5x my money back because I was smart enough to buy the ones that cost only 40 cents that are worth four dollars to make my heft gains. Yet this individual would have made more than a teacher whom is helping a few dozen children learn important things in this world. How productive is it to wager money while sitting your butt on a comfy chair and then selling them for a massive profit as you click your mouse a few places and put a few pass codes in? This is how the world is working and nothing will change until people do something about it.

News Story Review
Video Link

I happened to come across a story from Yahoo Finance with Don Harrold on the show. You know the guy who keeps putting up videos and then removing them (over and over and over again) as they were talking about a silver bubble. Jeff Macke was the host of the show and I know that these two people are friends, so this is not that much of a surprise to me that this occurred. I have wanted to stay below the radar for the most part, and am glad that I have done so. Don first states that the Nasdaq and the Silver have the exact same chart before the bubble. I think Don uses the word "exact" extremely loosely because he failed to point out was that the Nasdaq never had a major correction before it rallied on his chart. It went from around 50 to 5000 in a little over 25 years and thus this throws away the reason that a market has to top after ten years of good gains.The increase was that of almost 100x times its values. Yet, the so called guru of Don Harrold is trying to tell us that it is the exact same? If we divide our current price of silver by 100 we get under fifty cents and thus this is not a fair comparison. If we multiply the bottom of $3.50 by 100 we would get $350. It seems all the people calling silver tops are ignoring the quarterly chart and the fact that it is still so way undervalued. Yes they may say it was the "Hunt Brothers cornering the market" and if they truly believe that then I do not know if I should laugh or cry.

Another note that Mr. Harrold pointed out was that of the Dow to Silver ratio and how its under its historic average and thats an indicator for a silver bubble. He even said that the ratio once got to 50 to 1 on the 1980 peak and when the Silver price was $50.00/oz that means by multiplying this by 50 you would get $2,500 and you can check all you want, but the Dow was never close to this and the ratio was under 20 to 1 in reality in January/1980. I said earlier this weekend that technical analysis is 100% when your data is correct. When you have someone telling us the bottom was a 50 to 1 ratio and by not using the 1975 Nasdaq lows this tells me the data he used was not accurate and thus there is major flaws in his research. At the five minute mark of his video he said there has been 13x of a dollar loss since 1913 when the CPI calculator will state that its 22.57x its value and even that level is definitely wrong as it is closer to 60-90x loss. Don also says the chart looks like its up too much and yet he fails to use a logarithmic chart in a heavy inflationary environment. If you want to listen to someone whom removes there videos every now and again, then go right ahead but Don Harrold to me is becoming one of them in that the mainstream media type thinking in lying to the people. Maybe Don feels genuine about his decisions and is not aware that he is using inaccurate data, and maybe Don doesn't know how money is created because if he did then he would realize that for the first time ever we have hundreds of thousands of people every day waking up to how money is created and we are closing in on the end of the mayan calendar which has been extremely correct up to now which would be dumb to deny such a thing. Granted it is very hard to find good information and when people search the mayan calendar it will be hard to find genuine info as a lot of it is fear mongering with many half and quarter truths.

There a difference from an intermediate term top and a long term top. I am not calling a long term top like Mr. Harrold is and I think an intermediate term top is possible. My final point is there has only been two people whom has ever wanted me on a show before and that was Jack DeAngelis earlier this year and once I was on Wide Awake Radio. Unfortunately Jack stopped his videos because many people on the internet came on stating him to be a fraud and thus Jack has stopped doing videos. Those people whom ripped Jack won I guess. I don't know the story of what really happened, but my point is that Jack is the only person that has ever invited me to a show to talk about silver and maybe Don mores than I do. I don't know, but my guess is that because he is good friends with Macke that he put him on the show. I am happy staying in the backseat or behind the radar with my analysis that I feel is up there as the best with silver analysis. This is only my opinion, but maybe it is wrong because I don't know what I am talking about. I very highly doubt that,but time will see.

05.02.2011

2011-05-02T07:03:00.001-07:00

Market update - 515pm EST

The uptrend lines are both in tact and the level one parabolic uptrend remains. The parabolic uptrend is the one that found support and level one means just that. If it breaks down and makes new lows then the trend line shown in this video will become a key support level to watch out for. We remain in a bull market longterm that is heavily manipulated and by playing any fancy games with margin calls or being shaken out by paper contracts then I feel no pity what so ever. We knew this was a volatile market and I have been pointing this out for well over a year now. I knew this because I seen first hand what 2008 was like for movements and I seen the archives of the 1970s. This market is meant for day traders as well as those people wanting to get out of fiat paper debt notes for real assets.

The lower the prices go, the bigger the physical disconnect will become. Right now above $40 it will not be that big, but as it heads below $35.00 (if it does) then this will cause problems with supply issues. People will stop selling unless they get a massive premium and thus the prices have to go up or the disconnect would go stronger. Sort of like stretching an elastic band goes stronger and then we all know what happens when you relieve pressure. I don't think it will go down that much. I could be wrong, and long term technicals are way overextended that it would take a decent size pullback to break their trends.

11:20AM EST UPDATE

I'm writing this live at 11:21 am and the market is up to $47.31 and even higher than it shows on this chart of a few minutes ago. The five day moving average was not resistance (other than many seconds) as was the fibonacci at the same point. For the crash to not be a failure it really needs to stay below 46.75 and even though it is above this level that does not mean anything yet. This move higher could be a pierce above of which would bring more selling. That could happen maybe, but when I get a message hours before the market opens about someone having a dream that the market would crash to 43$ and then rally back up to where it was and I see this live, it is a little bit freaky. Finally I said the intermediate trend was bearish with the massive selling. This has been now changed to neutral as of now.

Update earlier this morning

Since the bottom over twelve hours ago the silver market has rallied back to $46.00 an ounce or almost ten percent. The bulls are not dying without a fight and it is still tough to determine if this is an intermediate term top or this to be the failure of what now would be an even bigger explosive breakout. The odds favor this to be an intermediate term top and thus because of the rally this will give some people the opportunity to get out of some silver contracts. This rally is guilty on the intermediate term simply because the five day moving average is declining. The massive six dollar drop and all other sell offs are guilty on the longer term time frame simply because the fifty day moving average is rising. The battle will now insist between the five versus the fifty and i'll get more into this later on. Short term it found resistance last night at the first fibonacci level and then pulled back. It successfully made a higher low and got above the fiboancci level and then found it as support for this last lift off. It currently is now as the one day moving average and another area to find resistance. The next key resistance levels is the five day average and the upper fibonacci level at $46.77.

DAILY CHART

Even with this large move it was not able to break this bullish trend. When you have this kind of volatility I must put the word "caution" in the wind, but markets don't crash in a superb uptrend. Rather markets crash as it is in a bear market and usually with a declining fifty moving average as well as the 200 day average being flat or declining. Rather this was a violent correction within the powerful uptrend. Support was found last night at the trend line shown on this chart as well as the 18 day average of lows and many other reasons. Obviously something is going on behind the scenes and if they have it planned it go much lower in the upcoming weeks then thats what will happen. We all know (or should know) that every market is controlled by the new world order forces and they will do what they wish. This doesn't stress me out, because I think back to the song "You can't always get what you want" by the Rolling Stones because they may want to crash the silver market and try to keep people clueless about fiat currency, but in my humble strong opinion that they will not get that to happen.

Quarterly

Nothing has been done to destroy this chart as its still working on having a winning quarter again. As I have spent about 25 minutes making this blog the silver market is now at $46.50 and the market keeps moving higher and thus up over ten percent in sixteen hours. Therefore after the crash the market is neutral as it has moved past the 50% mark on the crash and when you see fibonacci support at $18.95 and we are well over double this figure then this tells us it is in a significant amazing bull market and it will take a lot to bring us to this level. I am hearing a lot of people becoming bearish on the market and this is what I want to see. Let these people get shaken out. The final note will be when you see a parabolic chart like this quarterly one and it close to all time highs like it was to end last week then you need to shorten the time frames out to look for buying opportunities. When you see a parabolic chart go higher and then pull back aggressively then this opens up many reasons for me to go long, but only if there is good reason for us having potential reason to go higher and in this case it sure seems like a 'yes' to me.

05.01.2011 - Sunday Crash

2011-05-01T16:37:00.000-07:00

OSAMA BIN LADEN DEATH CAUSED THE SILVER CRASH!

Oh and the stock market is up on this news also. Interesting that Silver fell around 6pm EST and the stocks rose after 10pm that the news caused the price of silver to head lower on news of Osama dying and of course we have the stocks go higher. This is worse than the "Fat Finger Typo" of 2010 pretty much a year ago to this date. This is Reuters that is telling us this. The news is on Osama Bin Laden dying and with an open mind when researching what happened almost ten years ago shows how the media was behind it and guess what folks, they are doing it again. In my opinion this is going to cause a lot of people to research the 911 story because of the ten year anniversary and the subject being popular again. These are the reasons I get into physical silver is because "the new world order" as they have been labelled can do things like this. Well they added another chapter in this "Once Upon a Time" War on Terrorism story and they wrote a chapter on price action of silver. What is also interesting is how Oil is doing nothing out of the ordinary with its trading and you think its very natural for there the silver market to be the one that takes the hit on Osama dying over Oil. The news article says Oil slides, but if you look at the chart you will see it's doing nothing unusual. In my opinion it has never been easier to call a bluff.

The safest assumption for Monday May 2, 2011 will be that it will be volatile. I will be looking for is the percentage hour moves to surpass the previous ones that were quite volatile. The average before was around one percent moves from top to bottom per hour and this may double to two percent per hour. For many months I have referenced the 1979 and 1980 volatility that was wild for the market in percentile terms. The Hunt Brothers story I do not buy for the reason for the volatility and it was the same reason then as it is today. This is amazing for the bulls whom are looking to buy or holding or waiting for that big gain to come.

Price Action

The market has consolidated the flash crash that lasted twelve minutes. We are closing on the anniversary where the equity markets lost seven percent in around seven seconds. Very short term a hold of the previous low around the $42 area is important, but the bulls are dying this fast. This is the ultimate buying opportunity or that of a dip. It can very easily go lower and if you are buying in segments then you will continue to get deals along the way. There is nothing to give me confidence on this fiat dollar that this kind of action where the market plummets to this degree is insane and pretty much criminal. The low volume tells me something is fishy but the SLV shares will have record volume. I make this prediction hours before their market opens. I could be wrong, but I don't count on it. Many stops are (buy-bye) as SNL has used a skit for in the past and there could be damage being done. Regardless of the fact the market is now bearish on the intermediate term trend. The five day moving average gave in with the fast move selling from a failed break earlier. The $53.00 target for the upside is obviously out the window and that trend line connecting 2010 is out the window once again. The support test was the twenty day moving average and therefore on the somewhat longterm time frame (level greater than intermediate) the five day average I feel is the most important one and it is rising and all sell offs are guilty until proven innocent on this time frame. With the five day moving average declining all rallies are now guilty until proven innocent on the intermediate term. Something has to give and the most likely scenario is that the explosive move happens very soon or its an intermediate top. I would count on intermediate top. For if this is a failed move the market would start the day losing 14% and gain over 50% in a few trading days? I don't think so, but it could happen. Therefore, the bull should not give up and I would expect resistance at the 5 day average and maybe a test of the 50 later this month. Still hard to tell being only a few hours of aftermath. This is the final update of the day and will come back in the morning. Good night.
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Link from Marketwatch

What is there to say other than WOW and this isn't going to last, but volatility sure came in very strong and what will not happen is the average volatility to stay at one percent or less it was accustomed to last week in what was a high volatile week. This isn't going to last and the buying opportunities are now becoming very strong. This does put us in an intermediate term bear market now unless we get one heck of a failed crash, and that isn't lucky. The bulls won't give up so fast as they didn't give up this last week. The next update will come your way later tonight on this blog.