Wednesday, December 29, 2010

12.29.2010








Silver market has made some nice gains
over the last two days and is looking to extend them. The key spots for future resistance is the $21.40 level on the 685.4% on the late 90s/early 2000s range of $4/$8. The range from $25/$29.33 is $32.00 on the 161.8% level. Those seem as if are extremely likely to be tested either by the end of this week or early into the new year. What we need for confirmation is the 38.2% fibonacci to hold which is currently set at $29.68. This number will keep rising as the market makes new highs. This uses the last significant low of $28.00. The bulls remain in control of price action as we are close to heading to much greater gains. For the gains we have had in the last few months is showing conformation on the super long term time frame for that grand move many silver bugs are awaiting.

Tuesday, December 28, 2010

12.28.2010






SILVER BACK OVER $30.00 on news of the consumer confidence that has shocked the nation by revealing as consumers remain cautious of the economy as it slipped to a 52.5 index. Other reasons the Silver market has been making these gains is on the houses falling for the forth straight month. Another reason is because the New Orleans Saints defeated the Atlanta Falcons on Monday night which gives reason that the Saints can repeat as champions. Ok, I've done this joke before, and its obvious those are not the reasons why the market has proceeded upwards. I say this because the Mainstream media loves to say the Dow falls or rises because of these key economic indicators. Even when they don't make sense articles would read something like "Investors ignored unemployment figures...." and so on. The reasons they go up or down is big big financial institutions want to or have no choice but to have the market follow in one direction as well as the technical indicators.

This does happen to the 15th day I was talking about around Christmas and it really needs to get above $30.75 to breakout. Previous corrections took fourteen days to sell off and consolidate and the last ones 14th day was yesterday and thus it broke out big today. Because it is staying in the $30.30 area as of today's close, this does not mean that the breakout is not today as it has to break out and above the last top. For the breakout to be today, the market will need to keep moving higher without any time corrections on the daily chart. Therefore if we have a 1.5% up day on Wednesday and 4% day higher on Thursday making new highs then this would qualify. If it corrects through time for a few days then the day it breaks resistance will be the breakout day. If it tops and retraces lower then this is only going to the top end of this range. When in doubt during this bull market the bias should be the upside. This means when you are in spots where the analysis states the movements should break either up or down, the benefit of the doubt to the upside would be more accurate as historically trends result themselves with the current trend. Shorts are getting crushed in this market as they should be as they have been dead wrong. If one thinks the market is up too much because it has gained over 70% in only a few months then they will find out the hard way how good that strategy is. If one shorts because of other indicators like bollinger bands, then proper risk/reward strategy would be to take your profits if and when they come as well as ensuring the market doesn't soar as you short.

There is not one time frame where the market is bearish and thus when this is the case I will be giving any doubt that may appear to the upside. We were in a pattern of lower highs and higher lows and thus, we had this indecision period. Because of being in doubt the bias was higher and those whom played upon this rally are now making profits. If one is buying bullion on the dips then every single one of these has been successful. We are heading towards the 685.4% Fibonacci Level from the $4/$8 levels at $31.40. We also have the 161.8% on the $25/29.33 range that gives us a price objection towards $32.00. This could give us a reason to say "SELL, SHORT" when we reach $32.00? I think it is very likely that this will happen on the short term as it may move lower for a few days or few percentage points. However, the bias is higher and the fundamentals keep growing larger. It kind of scares me to think that Shorting at $32.00 in the hopes of a 15-20% correction will be successful. Thats why if you do choose to make this play to have your stops in place. If expected resistance levels do not play out and sellers can not control the market then you would expect the next key levels to meet up fairly quickly of massive gains very fast or have the resistance become support. Becoming support means $32 to be a lower end of a range for the first few months of 2011. I'm not saying this because I buy silver, but more so the reason I have bought and will continue to purchase silver is because of its massive upside potential. IF these levels go parabolic to these high variables over $200 or even $500 then many of these key levels will be destroyed on a technical level which will give us symptoms of silver climbing and falling $1.00 in a minute and 10-20% days. Therefore the next fiboancci levels above here is $50.00 on the longest of term time frames and $36.33 on the intermediate term. However it's very sketchy to say that thirty-six and one third will be the next level as the message of the market may change. However the 261.8% from the November highs and lows is that number that is used to calculate.

Monday, December 20, 2010

12.20.2010



Chart will be posted some time after the 4pm Close in the late afternoon, evening or early night session.

The action as of 3:14pm given us a big push higher at the 2:05-2:10pm EST time frame on heavy volume. It has sold off most of its gains but on much lighter volume. I trust this rally that occurred and would not be surprised if this breaks out to a new set higher that can make it to $30 tonight and either find a new support level or test the $31.50 level this week. If you are trading and looking to find this market on a breakout, it has not done this yet, but at $28.68 SLV and 29.38 Comex this is an area that would be expected to find a bounce. If this fails then the next likely drop is about 8-10cents lower. It has had a nice move above this five and ten day moving average as well, we have had great time to consolidate the gains of the last couple of months and could have energy to make a nice move higher that could have a nice break past $32.

Sunday, December 19, 2010

12.19.2010


Silver closed the week above well above $28.00 in the area of a nice move above $29.00. $28.00 is very important level to hold as this is the main support for this time consolidation that the market is in. These prices can either correct through time (sideways action) or through price (movements in the opposite direction of trend).

The market is holding up very well and is still well above the fifty day average. Gold is testing the fifty day average now where the Silver market did not even touch the fifty day average during the entire fall season .(pending it does not lose 10% in the next two days) This shows us that silver is outperforming gold as the gold December high is only a shade above their November high as Silver gained five percent more from the two highs (Nov 29.33 and Dec 30.75).

On this chart of Silver we can see the price action is moved up to the five and ten day moving averages. It is fine if there is resistance at this level, but if this is the case and it falls lower it will be important to establish a higher low to keep this uptrend active. Therefore if it falls back to $28.60 or in that area then it would be another higher low and thus make the odds of a break above the five and ten be very favorable. What would play out perfect is a move down to the twenty day moving average where it can find support and then battle the five and ten and break above it.

If it gets above these averages what I would be looking for is a move up to the $30.00 area that would come back and find support at the rising five day average and then pick up a long position for silver as its breaking above this level with a stop below whichever support level is tested. For example, if it goes up to $30.22 and then comes back to $29.50 to test the five and then starts rising then a buy order after you can establish one higher low and momentum to make a higher high. Place a stop in the most appropriate place (usually below the key support level from before from either price action of fibonacci)

If you are buying physical silver and want to play the charts the concern area is that we are near the $31.40 which is supposed to be resistance. I feel that if this area is that and it pulls back or corrects through time that it will only be short lived. This is where we can mix fundamentals with technicals and then state that all pull backs are counter trend rallies that generally fail. When a level of resistance is not met with anything to stop the uptrend, then that usually means a major burst to the next fibonacci level. In this case it is $48.00/oz which we will call $50 because that is the level of the 1980 highs. Therefore if you want to play this resistance game then the way I am approaching it is waiting for a pullback to the $25.00 handle or see how this $31.40 mark holds and check to see for confirmation that the next move to $48 is coming. To see confirmation we need to see it burst through this level (and then you wait for the market to consolidate before buying) as well as any price action that shows that $31.40 is support and its ready to burst higher from this point. Therefore that means the next purchase is either a)$25 if it retraces lower, b) $32-$33 if you buy on a breakout or c) much higher if it bursts through $31.40 without any consolidation as you then wait for this to happen. An example of this would be a big move over a week or two that goes from $31 to $50 and then you use fibonacci or some other indicator to wait for the next pullback to buy. this level could be $40. Who knows as successful traders always adjust to what the message of the market has in store for us. If you stay tuned to this channel then I will inform you on when its time to buy again.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

12.15.2010





FAILED MOVES CREATE FAST MOVES in the other direction and thats why a sharp sell of or another big move up is never that much of a surprise. The failed move of trying to manipulate silver prices to the downside would cause what? Thats if of course the move has been to manipulate the price lower. I have pointed out before on the long term charts that the move from 1980 or 1981 breaking below $8.00 and keeping it below there for over two decades was that of a manipulated move. I guess the failed move in allowing the free market to bring silver prices higher, brought a fast move to the $4.00 area for a decent time frame.

If the sellers are not able to sell this market off for much of a retracement or even have this market have the ability to correct through a decent amount of time, then the failed move will come to another set of parabolic gains. This means volume to be around three times higher than normal and the candle charts to look much bigger then they do today. Heck, todays candle charts are much bigger in comparison to all the days below $24.00. It seems with the fundamentals of money printing and how fiat currencies can not hold through on the long run that these big moves are only a matter of time. Whether they happen later this year or even into 2011 or 2012, they seem very imminent to come into play. Thats why if we have any big sell offs, ask yourself how this happens and what this means and if this gives more people (and maybe yourself) a chance to acquire more troy ounces than you would have with these paper and digital currency notes.






Tuesday, December 14, 2010

12.14.2010


There is a regular head and shoulders pattern that spans the last
eight hours or so and it is only trying to finish the pattern. Any intraday chart will show this including the finviz 5 minute chart. It really needs to hit $29.45 as the neckline and $29.40 as the next level. The last move lower as of 7:37pm EST is $29.49 as the low and its rallied up to $29.60. Anyone whom wants to short this market, is encouraged to do this for a quick trade. With the 20 day average rising each day and most days the five is rising also all the benefit is to the upside. If we do break down below this level I mentioned on the head and shoulders, the move is to $29.00 which ironically enough is previous resistance and the 38.2% fibonacci level. Breaking higher above the key $29 and two thirds is in the 30s mark which would not be a surprise seeing Mid 31 to 32 tested within' 36 hours of breakout. That doesn't mean it will, but it is something I would like its chances of.



To see any of the photos below, click on the photo to bring up a larger image. To save it, bring the photo to a larger image and right click the image and find the "Save Image as" button. You can use these for any non commercial presentation including media productions.








Monday, December 13, 2010

12.13.2010




$29.67 (or Twenty Nine and Two Thirds area) is the area that Silver stopped its rally and moved sideways. This area is also the 61.8% from the lows of $28.00 and the high of $30.75. The 38.2% was $29.00 and that was the top on Friday. Once again the silver market gapped above a declining five and its been a very profitable play to bet on Silver when its below since July. If there is a pullback I would like to see $29.00 become support which was resistance on Friday as well the 38.2% fibonacci mark. If it breaks through this and can manage to hold above $29.75 then the move to $31.50 and up to the $32 area should be the next move. This has been a long range of gaining 0.6% per day on average and that is what the trend line is. It has been above and below and thus we are in an upward range. We were in a sideways range in the summer and it broke out to the upside. This one will break out to the down side and either correct through time or sell of some portion as a break of the down trend. The break of the up trend means parabolic gains to another level.

Friday, December 10, 2010

12.10.2010










Big Day today. There are a few updates and one final closing update at least coming. Adjust to the message of the market during these times. All times Eastern




Update 12:13 - Im off to lunch after this. The move is to the Ten average. This is big on what happens here. I said earlier, Its ok if it bounces off of this. If we can hold this rally giving up to 61.8% of this back then it has better chances of breaking this ten day average. If this fails the battle will turn to the Five and Ten day moving average teaming up as resistance going against the twenty day moving average and the VWAP from the November High level. If it gets above the ten day average here then its back to the Five versus Ten game.



Update - 12:03 - The failed move on the failed move created a fast move to a new high not seen since 8:45am today. I hope its not a failed move to a failed move to a failed move, but it can be. Sorry to confuse you (if I did and I should have), but the jargon I have stated is because the inv H&S pattern broke up and then a hard move lower below neckline support. It held those areas mentioned and had a fast move to $28.67. This was a gain of over one percent in a range of 7 minutes. As I am finishing this LOG at 12:06 it is consolidating the gains. The pattern for the H&S was to the 70-71 cent handle and like the $31.75 hit on the long term time frame, this is a small pierce below on the short term. This is not to say it can not go back there and thus also extend its gains.



11:50a - From failed moves can come fast moves Brian Shannon has said on many of his videos, and this looks like the case on a potentially failed inverted head and shoulders breakout. This pattern is only for the shorter of time frame traders, but as I make this at 11:53am, Silver broke $28.37 and then it fell back down. It needs to hold two levels right now which are $28.25 as the level that has been established over the last half hour or so as well as $28.20 which was the resistance shortly after 10AM. Overall, it might be one of those it is time for lunch deals. It's friday and its a down week for the metals with the exception of Copper. The JPM Morgan buying physical has a lot to do with this as they added this ETF which is actually backed by Copper. I laugh when they try and say "Hey folks, this ETF has real assets", meanwhile the crew on the staff have all these great feelings because they are doing the right thing. The reason I laugh is not because I don't believe them on the ETF being backed copper, but more so that it shows how all the others are not this way. I guess if they could back SLV with real silver and GLD with real gold to the quantities they have out in shares. Do I think for every share of SLV that there is 0.97 ounces of Silver some where? Do I think for every share of GLD that there is 3.06 grams of Gold to back it up? The answer is no and these figures are based on the share size ratios. It might be a right step to do the right thing and back this ETF by real copper, but if you want to make more right steps a move to fix the Gold and Silver (and all markets) would be essential for there to be an economic recovery. Thats my two cents (or two grams using silver).




10:30a - Silver is still holding well as it has held above $25 and the market has had some time to digest it's gains that it is had over the last few months. On the short term it has managed to come back to the 28.00 handle where support was found last Wednesday. The battle between the five and ten day average I pointed out last night seems to be won by the break of the ten average. This means with any rally that occurs from here on in on the short term time frame that the ten and five day moving average should be resistance. On a bullish case, that is fine for this level to stop a rally and bring the market lower. What would be important when it touches this level is for the market to make a higher low and then take out the important issues. The twenty average is current at $27.61 and if we break this $28 handle then this is where we are going towards. I'll be back later with another update

Thursday, December 9, 2010

12.09.2010



The market is consolidating well at this level. The ten day moving average was successful support as on its first test it stayed around its level above and below it. It made a nice gain and then came back to it very nicely and has thus lifted again. This now means the battle is between the ten day and five day average. The benefit of the doubt goes to the buyers with the trend being very bullish. Just because we came close to $31.40 as the huge resistance does not mean that it is down down and away. The odds do state however that a break of the $30.75 brings us the $31.40-$32.00 range where it most likely will stop going higher for a few moments. For now its jumping the gun with $31.40, but the $29.00 level is holding nicely.

Its alright that it is below the trend line, because the current trend in the market is price action going above and below it back and forth over the last couple of months. The trend will not always stay this way, and there is no sign of this current trend ending. To end we would need to see it breakdown and have a serious retracement or a serious time correction to go below it. It hasn't had a big enough price correction as of yet, nor has it corrected through time long enough for us to say the trend of the trend line flirt is dead. The other direction for breaking this trend line is bursting well above this level and thus making parabolic gains in a larger up trend line. That is very possible at this moment, but very unlikely to happen. However, theres a better chance it will happen any given day today than on any random day in the past based on the certain circumstances with the current technical analysis within' this big level and the fundamentals on all streets on planet Earth it could very easily happen. This would result in 40% gains in a week or 20% in one day.

Because we have had a lot of volatility in the market and the massive 150 million share day in November, this tells me its either a precursor to something else. This is either to a lower decline on lighter volume than it was in November until it makes it washout lows or a much higher volume day that would be at least 180 million on SLV seeing Silver make those higher gains where it moves up in the 10-30% range in a one day period or 40% week with 17% in one day. Those kinds of possible events. It may sound outrageous using those numbers, and I have learned to not take ballpark guesses unless you have something to back it up. In this case I am going back to days in the late 1970s when Silver had a boom and bust cycle.

Hold on to your hats, it will be a bumpy ride.




With Silver trading a little short of $30 per ounce currently and gas prices a little short of $3 USD/Gallon this means with each ounce of silver you can obtain around ten gallons of gasoline. This is why many have been advocating buying silver to protect your purchasing power. You simply are not able to hold cash and think that you are going to maintain value. You can try to invest your cash into bonds and stocks to increase value, but currently the bonds are not giving any interest rates that will be near the inflation value. Yes you might get three or four percent, but real inflation is over ten percent per year and thus you are losing. You can buy stocks, which is nothing more than playing a casino style game. To win you need to have an increase greater than inflation. For example if you buy $5,000 worth of stocks on one date and over a period of time real inflation goes up 25%, then you would need to have your stocks be worth at least $6.000 to break even.

The video below is that off the gas prices in fiat dollars and silver and later today there should be a regular silver update.






EVEN THOUGH HOME PRICES ARE GOING LOWER, HOME PRICES ARE STILL BULLISH!

Yes many people bought houses at prices much higher than they are today if they bought a few years ago, but they got ripped off at the time. They were told that it was an investment and it could only go higher from here. I guess that will be true if we price it in fiat dollars over the long haul, but when you look at a 100 year chart (below) we can see it is been going up at parabolic rates. Its increased over 5000% since 1913 today and that was around 10,000% back in 2007.






Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Dec 7/2010 - Fibonacci Test of $31.40





Update 10:26pm EST - This move is so similar to the one last month when you look at the volume encountered and price action. If thats the case another wave lower might be the case. If that is the case then we may see another wave lower. The counter argument to this move lower is that Gold made a new low on the short term from its 4pm Lows. The $28.50 handle was hit exact just recently for a second time. Gold on the other hand had a 4pm bottom around the 1397 handle and has just hit 1391 when silver hit the $28.50. This means in that time frame the gold to silver ratio is bullish and this could mean the move higher in silver is coming. The Fibonacci from the $18.00 lows of August and the highs of a few hours ago have the 23.6% level at $27.08 on a Linear level and $27.74 on an exponential one. If silver continues to move higher on this level then the gap difference of the two will increase as this shows us the differences better with exponential growth and decline.

Note - The stats for this page is also starting to grow exponential. Thank you all for your great support.




Update 4:09pm EST - WOW! Often times from failed moves brings fasts moves and boy did it ever. 20 Million shares were sold on SLV bringing Silver down $1.00 on endlessmountain informing of the fibonacci announcement and that he is not buying any more bullion for a while. Not like I am buy that much right now and I am kidding that my announcement moved the market lower. However, because the market is lower and it broke the Five day average as well as the 23.6% fibonacci mark and previous resistance it fell big down to the trend line. the 38.2% level is $28.41 on the exponential side and $28.55 on the Linear level. This calculates the lows of $25 and the highs of $30.75. As I am watching the charts now at 4:14 I have seen it go to $28.53. If this level doesn't hold, its getting serious and the shit is hitting the fan in a serious way. Excuse the language, but if this level doesn't hold, i'll have to figure out whats going on.





Update 2:52pm est - On the short term time frame the $30 level was resistance and since then is consolidating over time now showing indecision on this bear market. if it can hold the $29.80 handle for the end of the afternoon session, then a test of the 30.25-30.75 level should be in play. If not and it breaks the support, its the November highs thats the next target.







The video explains most of what I wanted to explain on this current test. What was not mentioned in this video is that I am only planning on liquidating around 2% of my current supply at this level because I do not trust the sellers. This rally has been borderline impressive in my views as I feel that the greater moves higher are on the horizon. You can not create phantom money out of thin air without destroying the currency and that seems to be exactly what is going on. It would not shock me and barely surprise me if we see the $48 handle my the end of the year or even January of 2011. After all, I am still planning on how I will present my year end Silver video where I talk about silver going north of $100 for the end of 2011 into early 2012.




Monday, December 6, 2010

SILVER BREAKS $30





$30 is a big nominal number that people love so much. The even numbers that end in 0 and 5. That is not me and thats why I prefer the $31.50 area because of math calculations. Also, because many of these levels of resistance have been pierced above (small gain above expected resistance) then I would expect $32.50 to possibly be that key resistance line met at this fibonacci level.


The Range is from $4 and $8 from the lows of the last bear market and the first key resistance level from 2002 and 2004. The difference is $4.00 and that means fibonacci gives us the following information


161.8% - 4x1.618033 + 4 = $10.47
This level was not resistance

261.8% - 4x2.618033 + 4 = $14.47
This was resistance and because 10.47 did not hold, the move from the $10.47 level was fast and furious to $14.47

423.61% - 4x4.2361 + 4 = 20.95
This was the 2008 highs that reached $21.35 and took over two years to take out

685.41% - 4x6.85406 + 4 = $31.42
We are coming very close to this level now

1109.01% - 4x11.0901 + 4 = $48.36
This level will co-inside with the 1980 highs of around $50 per ounce. If this $32 does not hold, then a fairly fast move should occur to this point as a failed move on fibonacci means that the next one is often expected to hit faster.