SEPTEMBER 28 UPDATE - Markets moving higher again
The price of Silver went up to $21.65 and has since had a retracement going down a little over one percent. This is no time to panic of a top in this market. When I say top, I mean intermediate one that will not be re tested for several days, weeks or even a few months. The price action we have been seeing over the last five or six weeks remains constant in a bull market trend that is slowly going higher. Because of this I am not going to update much onto the blog. If you are trading the silver then keep your eyes on significant support like the upward trend line and fibonacci etc as well as the strategies I talked about before with option PUTS and 2x short ETF.
Silver has made a new thirty year high with its move over $21.35. Every day seems to be the same. That is slow stepping moves higher. There has not been any four or five percent moves in one day and thus we haven't retraced much from any rally. It seems every correction is a sideways correction for a few hours or a one or two percent retracement. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones is up almost 200 points and is exceeding a nice rally. The Dollar is getting creamed and is now at levels from earlier this year. The one index that makes me scratch my head is bonds. Based on the area bonds are at with the TLT stock market ETF up 20% from its low in April. Its very common for these to trade in opposite with each other. This means something has to give which could either be a stock market retracement from the gain in bonds or that of a bond market retracement as stocks flat line. It's hard to say, but the last time I seen something that did not make sense was when the TLT did not rise in the 2008 sell off and it followed with a massive spike in the Bonds market afterwards. There will be an update later on this weekend and for now like crabbydoxtrix says, "Thats all I got"
Protection and Calculated Gambling!
Silver is over extended and a pull back is only to be expected. The timing of when can be very tricky. On this chart you can see that twice an uptrend line has been broken to the upside. The first was on the August 23 week and it exploded from there. The second time was on the week of September 13 and this line has now been support on one occasion. The five day moving average has held up and is rising at a rapid rate, for a rapid length of time. However, if we break the resistance line that has been the upper band for the last month then the gains would be big and most likely the the $24 area at least. Unless you have advanced knowledge or amazing calculations that I do not have or something else. Markets can correct either through time or through price and within' this rally there have been mostly time corrections and small price corrections along the way.
The fibonacci shows a price target at $21.05 which is the area it is battling at this moment. Its not uncommon for 161.8% to have little to no resistance, and when this happens its a high probability odds chance that it will go to level two as its next significant price target. Therefore with everything said their is no reason for many silver traders to sell short or sell their long positions. You are fighting this strong trend if you do. If you bought SLV when it was at $18.00 then ways of making protection plays that can make you even profit on a pullback is to play the OPTION puts on SLV. This way if you see a retracement where silver not only violates $20.00 per oz but even $19.00 per oz then you can profit from the play or at least take away some of the losses. Another way of playing this is by playing the ETF short that is shown below.
This ETF is getting creamed. The ultra ETFS are designed to be long term losers and the pattern that is against the path of the least resistance will get hammered the most. IF silver goes to $23-24 and beyond this baby is going to tank again. Therefore if you are playing with SLV shares or comex or you are a bullion holder then if you lose on the ETF play or you lose on the options PUTS then your shares or bullion will increase in value. However this enables you to sell your ETF or options Puts when they make new lows and then if you make news highs you would profit on the pullback. That doesn't mean you will still gain. It's possible that silver goes to $18.50 an OZ and you cash out your puts. You have a profit on a pull back and a move to $15.00 per oz can make you in the red. This is why they should call this gambling (but do not). They do not call this kind of gambling whether it be silver ETFS, SPY, QQQQ, XLF, TLT or any other kind of mutual fund gambling because that would cause many to not participate. If you are a bullion investor your gamble is that it's intrinsic value can hold and obstacles can come into play with an example being some massive big discovery which would reduce prices. However, if you are holding bullion and the Short or Puts don't work your bullion is worth more and you could probably get well over $30 a coin on ebay if it goes to $24 or $25 while your puts and stocks get wiped. If you profit on the pull back, you can buy more real bullion with profits. This means silver is obviously lower if you win a short ETF play and thus with smart money management it makes it harder to lose. As far as timing the short, if you do this now, it is a major gamble because the trend is higher and a breakout above not only this $21 fiboancci level, but the trend line shown on this page can have bigs gains coming. Plus most of you on this channel are expecting the big gains to happen and many have been expecting it for a while. Therefore would surprise you to see $32 or $40 come in a week or two? Not saying it will happen, but that it would not surprise me (that much).
Be careful when you are looking into getting these coins or bars. They are only plated with the gold and silver and thus you are getting around 1/1000th of the metal. This means with Gold at $1,300 its valued at $1.30 per ounce and at 1/1000 of $22.00 it is 2.2 cents value of silver per ounce. These are micro amounts and thus be careful. They will use fancy words like 100 MILLS to make it sounds like you are getting silver. People are getting scammed and its good to be aware of this before you make any purchases. Whenever you see anything that is too good to be true. Ask yourself why and do your own research, because for the most part it is too good to be true. Sometimes it might be a great opportunity and these do not come that often. The video below is a classic endlessmountain production on the 100 mills gold coin
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