1113pm EDT Update - The market seems poised for that D-Day decision I have been talking about and its going to happen very soon. Most likely a move the lower fibonacci number on the image of $36.74 will be played as support. Thats the level that must hold for the dead cat bounce short term rally today to not be a failure. This is very short term analysis, and what this means long term is that we are on the top end of the trend line more than we are on the bottom. The reason i chose that bottom was because it was the resistance from where the line starts at the same descending rate of the resistance level. If I had to choose another one it would be lower based on the original lows on this chart. This also means that we are about four percent away from our highs and thus the retracement for a price correct really hasn't begun yet. If however we do find support at the $36.74 area or greater and make it past the resistance level of $37.24 that was hit three times today and hold above it for more than four or five hours, then I would be convinced the next leg higher is going to occur either this week that could run into next week. As I sign off, the market is holding so far at the $36.00 area and it's exactly where the five and one day average is and thus fast moves come when we are in these indecision moments. Thanks for stopping by the blog today. Read below for earlier days action and inflation adjusted video.
9:25pm EDT Update - Silver at $36.88 is holding below the five and one day moving average. It's only a shade below it right now and it has not been clear yet if this area was going to be resistance for a leg lower or be support and the correction in the intermediate term to be over. Previous support was $36.45 and currently the twenty day average is at $35.62 and it is rising as key levels for potential support if this is in fact resistance. The market is showing more signs of giving many neutral messages in what is already a very healthy bull market. Until then the downtrend line is what will be needed to be taken out to nullify this 4 day bear market.
Update 5:25pm EDT - The market closed with a smaller loss than Gold had. It's not often that when both metals go down you see silver outperform the Gold, but this happened today. Usually when this happens it is because the percentage losses were tiny and this was the case today, but the gold to silver ratio keeps going lower as more people are preferring silver over gold. I think a correction like this is very healthy for the silver market and looks poised to have another breakout. Until the trend does something to convince me otherwise, I will keep on looking at up moves in silver. I don't see a 100% gain in a few months being all that large off a move when i consider the past volatility this metal has occurred in the past as well as the level of manipulation that was done from 1980 to current. Of course because of the manipulation which is still active a move lower would not shock me right now, but I would not expect it (YET).
Update 4:30PM EDT - Youtube is not allowing me to upload and for 2 hours I have tried to get a video out, and its not working. I'll keep trying
11AM EDT UPDATE - The five day moving average was small support earlier and then fell below this level earlier this morning. Since this point we are now in a "D-DAY" style moment now as the rising five day moving average needs to either use this point as support and move higher and thus making the breakdown below $37.00 become a bear trap, or the one day is resistance with the five day and a new leg coming lower making this market very choppy. The one and five day averages are moving together and the price action being stuck in the middle is why I call this "D-DAY" and often times major volatile moves can result from these kind of patterns.
When I woke up this morning, CNBC had stated that it was the dollar being strong that has made the prices of gold and silver head lower and I seen on the ticker that UUP (Dollar ETF) was up two cents and thus the index was hardly up at all. Hearing this makes me very sick or at least I think to myself "I've had enough of this bullcrap" as the story doesn't make sense not only because the dollar has no intrinsic value but a baby step move in the USA currency is the reason for the move lower? What they won't say is how the market makers are manipulating the price to whichever way they find fit and this I guess would not be prudent to mention to the people as they try and hold their ponzi scheme a float.
A video should come out this afternoon.