07.29.2011

07312011 - UPDATE 2325 EST - Yes the debt deal was passed and I searched the internet right after I did the post three minutes from the market open as well as a few minutes before six o'clock to see what deal may have been done. I guess it came out later and the big down moves for gold & silver started at the beginning of the day. it is unclear how Gold/Silver are doing, and my guess is that the price might be cheaper in the late morning session after the news on how the economy is fixed floods the mainstream propaganda press. I don't think anyone is surprised that they came to an agreement and thus raise the debt even further. I am hoping all this debt clock will get some of the 'masses' to educate themselves on the creation of currency. Some revolutions(revolts) may take place now after this occurs, but I don't think it will be anything that newsworthy. Most likely we can carry on with the boring every day activities with the story of the day changing and thus a new story on its way at some point. If you want to know how money is created, I feel the best movie out there to explain this is the youtube search for "zeitgeist federal reserve". Stick this into some method of search if you are interested. Be back on Monday in the afternoon.



07312011 - UPDATE 1803 EST - Market opened volatile down to $39.62 or a gap lower of almost one percent as it was thirty cents down the second it opened. It then went down another thirty cents to $39.30 and its a couple minutes later and the price is 39.66 after it was 39.76 a few seconds ago. Buckle up for this roller coaster. It will be a ride this early week!




Weekly Chart closes this week at $39.89 and down a total of twenty-three cents for the week and up fifty-four cents over the last two weeks. Yes the last two weeks did a whole bunch of nothing as far as price movements are concerned and the size of the candles were very small when looking at percentage movements or volatility of each week. This weeks movement was 5.34% from the lowest and highest points and over the last fifty days the average was 8.8% percent moves. What is productive about this move is how it didn't sell off after it made great gains. When the market is bullish and even neutral whenever rallies occur they usually follow up with movements lower. Therefore those last two weeks of small losses and gains was followed from the bigger green candle which was almost a ten percent gain and for two weeks it is has held those gains. This has placed the market above the eighteen period average band with the direction of the average moving higher showing breakout signs :)


Quarter Day Chart is still having a test within' the five day moving average (20/4) and its now been going on for six days. It is looking like it may be used as resistance and start a down trend and it might, but with the length of time being as long as it has within' the test the market is very neutral and when that is the situation that means you look for buy opportunities for small chunks when its lower and below the average and sell when it crosses above the average. That play will work until the range breaks and then it will be a bad sale. As far as price action is concerned is the higher lows that is very impressive. The last three break lows on this chart are higher than the previous which means a hold above $39.33 will remain very important going into the next week. Debt Ceiling talks are next week and this should spur some volatility and some larger size red and/or green candles.


Daily Chart looks clear from here that this big level a hair above thirty-eight has now been support and since it has found support at this level it has stayed above this mark for twelve consecutive sessions as well as ten straight days where silver has traded over forty per ounce is showing that the market is holding this fibonacci level well. The market is only bearish on the shortest of terms because the three day, weekly, monthly, quarterly are all bullish to one degree or another and because of this we can very easily see the spark that we need to bring this market further to the upside. The price action has currently finding a test at this front weighted eighteen period average and this average is rising. Very often support is found at this area and a move from this level would not be a surprise. I am still cautious about the market because it has not tested the level of a hair above forty-two, but the run may not be over and the test can very easily come next week. If this market does break down below thirty-eight without a test of the forty-two mark then there might be a viscous fast move but as I stand here the odds of this happening does not favor such a case.


Quarter year chart is used for long term investors or bullion physical silver traders. It takes a long time for this chart to move because only four different candles will appear per year. The trend has a nice uptrend and it has pulled back a little from the highs in May. There isn't much more to say here because it is below '80 Highs as well as the highs from this year showing it is not super overbought and if anything it is super oversold when you adjust for inflation or comparing against other commodities and indices. The current green candle can very easily make a higher high than the previous one and would expect it to break past the $50 level this quarter or by the end of September. I am still buying physical silver because I know the prices are suppressed and I have no faith at all in fiat currency.


Three Day Chart gives each candle three days and the current tick is starting today for this chart and will end on Tuesday. This chart is in between the weekly and the daily and may put this as part of the series of charts that include the daily, weekly, monthly, six hour, quarterly and yearly. This chart had resistance at the eighteen period average band after the market caved in at the start of May and since that point it has moved higher after finding the thirty-three area as nice support. The bands are now rising and showing the buyers taking back control of the market. Nothing wrong with a little move lower if it happens on this chart because that would give us a chance to have support at the blue band where it can resume its long term uptrend.


MONTHLY CHART is coming to an end today as this is the final trading day of July. The month will end with a nice gain as it attempts to find lift off support from the eighteen period average of highs. When looking at this chart with a logarithmic view and putting a mind set of "Long term thinking" then the moves that bring silver from fifty to the low thirties is a normal regular correction that is not a surprise to occur. People believe this selling damaged the market and from day one I knew it had not because the size of the red candles for May & June were nothing extra ordinary. The size for July again is nothing extra ordinary as well as markets keep trading normal. The fifty dollar level is the next key resistance on this chart which matches the yearly highs as well as the '80 highs. Because this level has been tested quite often then the odds of taking it out go higher for new gains and the upper band currently set at 54.52 is the next level. The upper band in August will go higher and even $56 to $57 might be a nice level on a rally to look for resistance.

MORE CHARTS COMING BELOW HERE THAT DOES NOT HAVE COMMENTARY ATTACHED LATER TODAY/WEEKEND

07.28.2011

For todays post I am simply going to type for about twenty minutes and embed a video from Cyrus who makes excellent videos. I'll start of by saying to please vote on the right hand side for which content it is that you would want to see. I can't and will not show everything, but will based on what gets the most votes. Moving on to today's blog I really do not have much of an idea for what I want to talk about, but there is a lot going on right now and it will be easy. The biggest news of the day is rolling across the "Debt Ceiling" and this is coming into play for the start of the next week as Monday is the deadline to come to an agreement. It seems there is always a new story as the old one passes when time rolls on. This story will go away as well and new ones will come. When the stories come in where people are refusing to accept payment in currency for goods, services or employment then things will be a little different. For this one we will most likely see volatile moves in silver will be more volatile and after I have seen the "Civil Law Suit" from Goldman do nothing, the "Flash Crash" on the stock market do nothing as well as even the Oil Spill lead to nothing and the "Silver Comex Crash" was a scare earlier this year that is now in the old I forgot it news. I'm going to put these talks on that list right now until they can prove me otherwise.

I hope as well as many other minorities of truth that the ceiling does not raise and we can get on with the dollar collapse at a more stable manner but that is unlikely to happen. Simple math tells me that the volatility will come because the powers that be always use the events that are scripted (if they are) or the ones that are going on as an excuse (if they are). I inserted the (if they are) because you never know whats real. Maybe it was Osama Bin Laden and the Easter Bunny is real, but I doubt it. As of the close on 07/28/2011 the SLV options for August show me a $44 call for twenty-seven cents a pop and a put for $35 and thirty-nine cents a pop. The math is awesome because it is easy and essential to buy at least five or six contracts of each and therefore unload them for profits one at a time as they appear. Most people lose with options and I doubt this one will lose as either the call or put have potential to generate major gains. It's a gamble and a casino style gamble I will not do because of who the bookies happen to be and I don't like high stakes gambling unless I can afford it and I am good at it. This case is simply because of who the bookies happen to be. I'll follow up later on these phony options and if you choose to play, remember its a gamble and risk what you can afford to lose as Im just a regular guy behind a computer who may or may not know what he is talking about :) Later and enjoy the video below.

07.27.2011

I have found a nice link that has the charts for the comex inventory levels. They are getting lower right now and its suspect even if they have what they are claiming they do. Either way, it is only a matter of time before the market really explodes.

07.26.2011

Daily Chart shows as if it looks as if we now have an appointment very soon with forty-two dollars. I kind of think it would be the next candle that would so such a thing or Wednesday's session, but that's no where near a guarantee, but how this is playing out. Today broke the six day streak of having the silver price go below $40 and above $40 within' each session and because today the lowest point was $40.05 that streak came to a close today. This is showing how well these areas are holding these major support levels. After a nice breakout earlier from the mid thirty silver level it found a resistance point at the upper band and then it had a four candle sideways consolidation that it has now broke. Two days above this and now nine holds above $38.11 giving enough confirmation that the bear market is at least over and thus the market should go bullish or head neutral, but most likely bullish.




Quarter Day chart is looking as if this market is ready to get going and have another leg higher as it really needs to clear the resistance level at forty-one per ounce, but it has lifted from the blue band which represents the five day average. The test of the five day average is still in play and has been tested for over five days. It will be a passed test if the market can have at least one more leg towards the opposite and move away from this average. It will fail the test if it is not support and it establishes a leg lower and the five day average thus turning lower. Instead it has stayed within' the blue band as well sometimes a little above it and sometimes a little below it. These are all normal things that can occur when these types of moving averages get tested. Currently the upper-band is forty-two which is also the area where the big fibonacci resistance level is found on the daily chart as possible resistance areas.






At 4pm the fifty day low remains $32.90 and this means silver is 23.92% above this line and now giving signs of again bullishness on this chart. What I like about this chart is it gives you distinctive areas for where the markets are breaking out of previous conditions that were correctional. The move from fifty to thirty-two was definitely a price correction and although it is looking more and more each day that the $32.32 mark is the bottom that the indicators are stating it could have a decent run up very soon. There is no guarantees on these charts and there never is, but what they merely do is give indications to price direction.

When looking at the shorter view of the exact same chart it has developed a resistance level exactly for where we are at as it needs to get above $41 to show confirmation. Fiboancci still says it needs to have a confirmed break above $42 to make the move fifty to thirty-two to become a failed move. Ultimately it is one hundred percent that selling a few months back will be a failure and the question now remains is when will it fail and if the dollar is going to fail to have the status of "money" with the combination of debt the likelihood of silver value priced in fiat dollars to go higher is outstanding. That is why I truly feel I am cheating on here with these silver charts because the ultimate outcome is not in question.

07.22.2011 to 07.24.2011

It is reaching eight o'clock new york dinner time and the market has been trading for about two hours and is up one percent so far for Monday's session. It has been holding the $38 level well as support so well that you can consider the $39 level being held which is even stronger. I don't know, maybe $40 will be support this week but what I do see is this chart pulling or breaking away from the sideways consolidation already above the rising eighteeen period average band. The odds favor continuation to the upside, but before we get there the previous break high of $40.87 last Tuesday. Last Monday silver broke into the forties and traded every day at some point above forty and every day below forty which meant at least once per day the market went above or below the forty handle. Because of the uptrend and the consolidation if the market does seem to explode further then the upper band is currently at $43.57 and rising which is an area I would expect it to move towards. If this does not happen and the breakout is fake so far then the bottom of the range of the eighteen period average of highs would be the expected area to watch for support.






The most recent cover of Money has a picture of some silver eagles that you may have seen on SGT Bull's video and subliminal messaging. I have choose to reply to this via blog rather than via video. I have a few points that I want to go over and if you want to watch either one or both of the two videos that was put out on this, they are embedded on the blog below this article. Apparently the Managing Editor from the MONEY magazine had the following to say about Gold: "...we don't think they're great investments. You've got to store them and insure them, and they're not so much 'investments' as they are items of speculation." He stated they don't think they are great investments and that is fine, because the speculation ultimately is if it is a good investment or not and there are many variables when deciding on any investment. The line that you have to store and insure them makes feel as if I should laugh and/or cry. This is correct to a point but would you refuse buying a shirt because you have to hang it up in the closet? The editor makes it sound likes it a hard job that makes it not worth it to have. When the author says silver/gold are not investments but more to items of speculation and this one is very easy to debunk. By google searching "investing definition" I was able to come across this site that tells me investing is defined as risking capital to make profitable returns. Therefore, it fits the definition one hundred percent for being such a thing in the case of gold and silver. This makes me wonder about the author because you would think that someone whom makes a magazine called "Money" would know what investing is.

The author later stated in regards to gold/silver: "After all, you're not 'investing' in a business's earnings power or a governments entity's ability to foster progress." It is interesting how he stated that its not like you are getting into a company and thus we have seen shares in Lehman, Bear Sterns, AIG, Citi get clobbered as well as many other ones. How did they turn out? Many stocks are not doing so well and they trade in the exact same kind of format regarding bidders and askers. This shows that this is all speculation and why it would be sane and educational for banks and firms to tell their customers that this is gambling and not investing or for them to realize that investing is another word that can be used as gambling and thus it is recommended for people to do their homework and find gambles that have a positive ROI (Return on Investment).

Finally Craig states that people are making a bet that people will remain scared and I feel this line was dominated by "scared" for that of trying to scare people not to buy gold and silver. Then they point out that you have to be smart enough to sell before they stop being scared. This assumes that gold will blow off and never see these levels again like we seen in 1980 in a price denomination of that of currency. It seems like the author really wanted to rip the intelligence that people are going to lose on this bet even if they happen to have some early gains. This was written with the same kind of words that you hear over and over over the mainstream news networks by using big people like Buffett to get people to sway one direction or not. You will hear its bearish for gold that there are ATM's starting to dispense such an asset and how poor of a speculation this is.

Im going to use the final paragraph to reply to any of those people talking about investing in bad times or why its not good to cheer for the dollar to collapse. I'll begin with the hard times and when you are looking at investing you need to see what the message of the market is telling you and what does the message say today? The message states that we have a major awakening going on right now and thus when millions and hundreds of millions of earth citizens realize that they have been bombarded with guaranteed debt in a monopolized monetary system, what would you think the chances are that the dollar will survive? That's the Risk/Reward or determining how much of an advantage you have in making the wager. It's not my fault the time have to be coming to this now and this was not the wager to make in 1984 as the message of the market then seemed to show that consumerism and mainly computerization to be the next big thing. The MSFT and IBM investments are now finished and the message says the dollar must go. As far as those people whom say that they don't want this to happen or why would you want this to happen I reply with one word containing four letters: DEBT! This is how our system is currently set up so that everyone is in major levels of such a degree that it causes much stress and anger in humanitarians. I think that is negative thinking and I think that is doomsday. Therefore I personally welcome the death of the dollar and I do so with open arms because I want to see progress for our species and the monetary system is getting in the way of progress. In order to move forward we must destroy what is holding us back.


SGTBULL - part 1 07.15.2011




SGTBULL - part 2 07.22.2011

07.20.2011

Quarter-day Chart is showing a nice pattern as it has found support at this twenty period average of highs, lows and closes and has just broke that level above it and back above forty fiats. This twenty average is five days because there are four ticks per day. This means it has went through the five average and then recaptured its level back above the rising average. This is a failed move that can often times cause fast moves. You can see the last one on this chart broke below the five day average and then a fast move that made it to the upper part of the band at thirty-nine fiats. This band is different from the bollinger band and seems to be working very well as I have been using this now going on my second month. Currently this band is at $42.35 and when silver was breaking past the five average a week and a half ago its bad was around thirty-eight and it rose another dollar when they met. If this rises another dollar then it brings us to $43 area, but what is important to realize is there is upside potential in silver as it closes at the highs of the day today.


Daily Chart ends with a close above $40 and more importantly the $38.14 number on the chart that represents the fibonacci from the big highs pre-crash and the crash bottom totaling three dimes above thirty fiats. What I like about this chart is how it is holding well as support in what used to be resistance. With further momentum we can now look to make a move towards the target which is the band at 42.00 which is moving and the $42.23 level that is not moving. This number represents the "must hold" level for this selling to become a legit move and ultimately start a 6-200 month bear market. I say 200 only because history has shown that it is not uncommon for a market index like silver to have a bear market in that duration from fifty fiats based on what happened in 1980. Of course, a multi year bear market is not going to happen and even a twelve month bear market does not seem logical today. Even though its possible for the price to make new lows breaking the thirty handle or even stay in this range for a longer period of time, it is most likely that if this does happen that would be it for the bear market. It is insane that silver is below the 1980 highs and that a correction of over ninety percent down was even possible. This should bring a yellow or red flag when you see this kind of activity and most definitely questions should be asked. There is two ways of looking at silver investing for long term holding and that is 1) If the dollar collapses, how will this play out with the physical? The answer to this one would be of holding something that other people are favored to want or be happy to barter with. Many people may not like silver in this environment but will realize they can accept your silver in trade and then trade it back for something else they want and thus giving it money principles. 2) We are crazy about the dollar collapsing and the world carries on like it always has and we can just do our thing. In this case inflation of normal values will reign in and by 2050 the silver should be worth over four hundred and thus its higher than having those fiat notes. I expect number one to happen, but I like to look at things from multiple angles.

07.19.2011

Daily Chart had a move today that brought silver below thirty-nine dollars as the market was flirting a move to forty-one that did not occur. $38.11 is huge which is calculated at $38.14 using the automated fibonacci of the last sixty-seven periods. Either way, this number area is big and a move to this level for breakout support would be ideal and nice. I stated that the hammer candle was not a bearish one this time because it found support at this massive level. That turned out to be true and that level of support is the original breakthrough support to the next level. Now that it has had a decent move from that previous close of $38.17 on July 14 I will be paying attention to see if we can have a final lift off support near this level. Final note was that the market got up to my upper band before retracing. This band is different from the regular bollinger band as this is calculated by taking the average volatility percent over the last eighteen days on a front weighted manner. It takes this percentage and multiplies this by three. For the upper band this percentage increase is added on to the eighteen period average of highs and the target is made.





Quarter day chart has the market moving towards the front weighed five day moving average. It moved a decent amount below the five day average of closes at $39.50 however the actual five day moving average which is not front weighted $38.89 and a sizable difference. With the at least short term bottom coming at $38.61 this meant it pretty much had a bounce on the five day average most people are familiar with. The front weighed gives a better more accurate picture. This bigger size move can give some concern, but I wouldn't expect this to be the case although it is possible. The higher volume started on the morning of July 11 as the rally was starting to ignite. With the volume being relatively the same as yesterdays move it is going to be hard for me to give much conviction to the down side. With that being said, this is the first breakout/down on this range and I am concerned that the first one does bring a failed move. This is the second test of the five day moving average on this chart and the last break low was $37.60 and that is the number it needs to find a bottom higher than to make a higher low. If the market goes below this level then the fibonacci retracement from these levels equates to $37.85 and $36.11 and therefore a break of this previous low means its breaking below fibonacci and this could set up a DDAY moment at the lower level at thirty-six per ounce. I say DDAY because this is a term I use when the market is a point where it needs to make a decision and thus its Decision Day and because the bull versus bear market is like a war, it is only fitting in my opinion.

07.18.2011

Daily Chart has a rise in volume over the last few days as it has cleared from the fifty day moving average with it's first close above $40.00 since May 3, 2011. I find this an interesting pattern because it looks like someone has just broke the metrodome roof wide open as the shape of the fifty day moving average resembles a baseball dome. No confirmation as of yet on the break above this level as a test of the fifty and previous resistance would be ideal and healthy for the market in some sort of correction mode either through price or time. To sum up the support found at the 38.2% level was magnificent and the bounce is happening. The market has given many people time to buy silver and not miss the boat because of over two months of discounted prices. It is unfortunate that people pass on these deals.


This indicator has managed to surpass the twenty percentage level that I have been talking about, and not only has it moved above the blue line (direction from the low) but with new highs not seen since early May we are also making new fifty day highs in the forties again for the second time this year. For this pattern to show a breakout signal now it needs to have some formation to hold these gains and this isn't happening yet. It is just going up and up and up and thus if this happens then at some point you just have to say "This is a confirmed up trend, wow!" When this happens its very much a great play the first moment it breaks the resistance level and in this case it was eighteen percent and myself I like support to be found at previous resistance and that's where I would be looking to buy with this chart moving back to 18% and then going higher. With that said, this chart is useless this time other than for any other knowledge needed and its for its looks, because the breakout signal will come when this $38 area is used as support with momentum moving back higher. Again even this information is useless when you understand the entire spectrum on how currency is created and what the cause and effect is of people in mass waking up world wide. Take care and have a great day. Be back Tuesday.





If this game show idea gets popular it may become a TRADITION to watch the show :)


UPDATE 1335 EST - The dow is down over one percent with a declining five day average and silver is breaking forty and making a new two and a half month high with a rising five average. Gold is now breaking $1,600 and I think it is an understatement to state that it is holding $38.11 very well right now, but we have still yet to confirm the break above this level as of yet.

07.15.2011

We will make a higher low at $37.89 today if we can take out the new highs and keep the pattern of higher highs and higher lows in tact that we have just begun. If we are looking for a direction to where a higher high MAY occur then I will put it at the top part of this trend line and if this happens soon by Monday or early Tuesday of next week I will target a hair above $40.00 per ounce. I also put the word may in cap locks because all I am trying to do when pick out possible support and resistance lines is finding the targets that have a better than normal chance of being such a degree. By understanding the psychology that if resistance is not that and moves higher than volatility goes higher and the next levels of resistance now get stuck with the word "MAY". Again if you use the psychology of failure to have a test then you can start to think of reversal trends or failed moves. Therefore if this line is not tested then I will consider this to either need some more time to correct or that of being a failed move which is pretty much the same thing. I am not on the bear camp yet, but I am losing confidence in that I am less pessimistic of even having a $35.00 test with the great job silver is holding above the $38.00 area.

07.14.2011

Daily Chart shows an interesting setup and the reason why you look for multiple different variables in making decisions. Normally when you rally to start a session and close near the area that you open you get a candle formation that is very bearish. These can often times come after the streak has been doing well lately. However, When we are coming off a five plus percent gain and it manages to hold above $38.00 since Wednesday afternoon or holding well for over thirty hours. This is a bullish sign and when its holding above the $38.11 fibonacci mark, I now look at this candle not as bearish but maybe even bullish. The reason for this is because it has came back to support. If you are the type of person whom wants the market to come back to the breakout point after it breaks out, then here you go and considering $38.12 was the exact level the market closed today at 5:15pm EST which has thus far been the bottom it is becoming magnificent. The more often you test a significant level, then the better the chances are that you take it out and when you look at this chart you can see we have had a few tests in this sideways correction. The upper band is well below the price action which tells me that there can be upside room for the market to move towards and the volatility chart (final chart) is now just breaking out that sets up some big moves. We are still waiting to confirm this move and time or price is what is needed for confirmation. Price by skyrocketing higher and time by showing setups that $38.11 is a thing of the past.

Weekly Chart has the market above the 18 period average of closes and because it has had a large price correction of one third its value as well as over two months thus far of sideways time correction gives reason for why this market can go very far very fast. Key word is can and this is being said because these corrections can be stated to build fuel for the next big move in the market. If you have been one of those people whom have been saying for months or years that you want it to pullback and load the boat or at least put a nice order in, then you have no excuses for timing now. We have seen mid thirty dollar silver for many weeks and it could be longer, but dynamics are currently changing. It seems the talk is all about the "Debt ceiling" and the word "default" which is now being placed with USA currency. These things will only make gold and silver go higher. If they do not raise the debt ceiling then the default happens and therefore the dollar has just collapsed. If they do raise the debt ceiling then you will get a lot of outrage and silver and gold will still go higher (maybe even short term) because of inflationary policies by the federal reserve.

Thank you for tuning into the blog today and below is the chart of the volatility on the quarterday time frame. This is measured by taking the moves during the 6-12 and 12-6 periods of (high - low) / low. Then a 20 & 80 front weighted average was put on this which is merely nothing more than the five day and twenty day front weighted moving average of moves over a six hour period.













Final Update for Now 11:52 EST - Site still down on ForexPros and I'll set up a day to do something this in the near future. I did this three months ago and that is making quick posts on market condition. That level i stated did bounce and was(is) a profitable bet if you play that game. Will be back in the afternoon/evening.

11:38AM - We should be at that bottom level that I mentioned from before. No guarantee it bottoms, but this is fibonacci support level

11:33AM - New bottom level has been changed from $38.45 to $38.48 and it looks like it will be tested soon.

11:24AM - Chart from link below has stopped working (for now) and the price has dropped. $38.61 now and the volatility in the market is showing us that things are picking up. I am predicting intermediate term down side, but hope it is not.

11:15AM - Interesting day today as it has crossed the $39.00 barrier and is holding above the $38.11 level and therefore we are at that major resistance point that has been talked about for quite some time. Over the next hour or two, depending on if I get called away or not I will be giving levels of where I think short term tops and bottoms may occur. Right now the top is $38.95 and the bottom is $38.45 using the levels from the following silver chart on the one minute time frame

07.13.2011 - Breakout Day?

WEEKLY CHART has the market snug in a nice neutral position still waiting for decision. The eighteen period average of highs is $38.91 using a front weighted average and it has not even tested this average yet during the last few weeks. In fact the market has never closed a week above the eighteen period average on these closes during this time frame and is currently above this level now. Breakouts from these patterns can be fast and furious and a confirmed break above the $39 mark i've been saying for a couple months will give this chart bullish signs.




DAILY CHART has the market with a close above the significant fibonacci level at $38.14 for the first time in a month and a half and the analysis I take from this is the chances are higher we take it out and because it has not been there for a while it may need time to consolidate. The 18 period highs and closes average is well above the price and there is nothing wrong with a decent size price correction without destroying the momentum. If we can have a higher high, higher low and a close above $38.14 on Thursday then it looks like we are good to go in the start of a new uptrend




THE BEAR LINE or the direction from the fifty day high has crashed today with both newer lower highs coming into the market as well as over five percent gain on Wednesday. In fact silver ended the day meeting up at the same spot with both lines. The direction from the low is now at 16.48% from its lows with the bear line at 16.11%. At the start of the day the fifty day high was $47.25 and it is currently at $44.19 and tomorrow at the end of the day will be $41.33 where we could potentially have a realistic shot of making a new fifty day high (SLV days) if it can close with a nine percent gain. That won't happen (or should not happen), but what will happen is the orange line moving significantly over the blue line which is important to have to go long. That is not enough to go long as its one of the variables needed as it needs to have a confirmed break above the 20% area and that works to the same as having a confirmed break above this current Fibonacci variable we are at now.





Update 1612 est - I'll update this blog in the evening session most likely and it will be interesting to see how the direction from the fifty day is going to look and especially because the market is rising as the fifty day high moves into crash mode through time of fifty days passing. I took a peak at it this afternoon and the direction from the fifty day high has crashed, but is still above the direction from the fifty day low set at $32.32. To put this into perspective the May 10 high was $39.48. May 10 was also forty-six days ago counting holidays and therefore SLV has a lag on the calculations, but it is close enough. This means we could potentially get a confirmed buy signal next week if things go well.



1530 est - Rally is looking great right now and holding above $38.00 with some small corrections along the way. We still need to confirm that this is a real breakout and this will happen over time. The key is that move above $39.00 and we are still below it. The volume on SLV was higher today as well as volatility and will comment more on that later on for those watching live. For those not watching live, this is nothing more than the final update blip on the bottom of the screen.

07.12.2011

The fifty day average closed today at $36.06 and is declining. It has one day left to decline and the average will then start to flatten out. Minutes before the 5:15pm close the market is at $34.15 and above this level. The five day moving average is currently set at $36.04 and rising where this line will cross through the fifty day moving at precisely 6pm EST today when the market opens. The five day average has already done this pattern with the ten and twenty moving average where a rising short term moving average crosses above a longer term declining average. To have a confirmed break above the fifty average it needs to break resistance on the $39.00 handle and then confirm a hold above. If and when this happens then the trend will switch to bullish. The fifty average is declining, but that does not make it bearish. The reason for that is because it just left the phase of flattening out and it has to break the big support level of $32.00 to begin a long term bear market. I'm not to optimistic that a long term bear market will occur and therefore it will be interesting to see how the next little while plays out as we work towards confirming a breakout. Volatility charts are showing that something is ready to brew (More on that later tonight)

The line of price is very similar to Ira Epstein swing line study which uses a calculation to determine if the trend is up or down and therefore never miss a new high or low. The swing today brought us to a new high and a trend change on this view of the market with a higher high. What it does is takes the three day front weighted average of highs, lows and closes. If the average is declining then I use the low as the variable and if its a rising average then I have the high as the variable.


Markets are looking to move into volatility as it seems that a stage one or two is in play. There are four stages which start with a stage 1 sideways consolidation from a bottom. Stage two is higher highs and higher lows uptrend and stage three is sideways from a top and four is a down. We just finished a massive stage four and the odds seem very probable now that big moves will come back in the market. With the higher volatility this means the targets on the longer term time frame of $32.00 and $26.00 on the down side become easier to hit as do the upside targets of $39.00 and $45.00 and beyond with high volatility. Expect big moves in the morning and for this chart to start a pattern of higher highs and higher lows.



Final Note - I have been seeing many formations on silver showing patterns of v and reverse v formations. This is when it goes down as fast it goes up. This has occurred on many different time frames and its possible that an inverted Bart Simpson head pattern maybe forming which is a pattern where a market goes up very vertical and then goes choppy up and down in a tight range and then crashes back down pretty much as vertical as the first move. For this to happen, Silver would have to move fast from $40 to $50 per ounce and its unlikely it will play out. I'll go over more on this later on.

07.11.2011

This range that we have seen has put the price memory for this rally at the level we are currently stabilizing within' as we continue correcting sideways. This graph shows a ten percent barrier for each price movement takes three entries per day for this graph. I don't know if we are over staying our welcome here in this tight ragne, but we have established a major amount of support/resistance currently within' the $33 to $38 range. This tells me that this level is going to be significant area later on, and when I say significant I state that it will be noticeable after the fact. If this range happens to end with a break to the upside that brings parabolic gains and we never go below fifty again then this area is big for when looking back at today as a past moment, then I will most likely say this was an area it consolidated through time which is what is needed for markets not go straight up and build energy for large moves.

Earlier on this year on the blog I was saying to buy any price below $78.00 per ounce for protection against fiat currency and its over fifty percent lower than that level currently. Nothing has obviously changed and I still love the buys at these levels for people who may not want to or are able to time charts. Therefore, with these suppressed prices if you are buying today then I see this as buying on long term strength (check inflation adjusted chart below) as the market has been rallying well for the last few years with major upside room left. You are also buying on two levels of weakness. The first level is the short term move of an intermediate term crash and bear flag pattern that is bearish as well as being well below the 1980 highs inflation adjusted, as well as below the nominal highs. This means you are buying on weakness and what I have learned is that buying on weakness and selling on strength is a profitable way of making positive yields as long as you are good at finding when its to buy and sell. There can easily be more down side left, but again this is short term and creates more buying dips. It isn't easy for the most part and can be very difficult to find tops and bottoms in this market and it is easy to see when it has fallen to give a status of a 'dip'. I stated at $39 silver to be a big point on the way down and it was not such a case on support and it crashed again below this target. This level later became major resistance and therefore was established to be a fiboancci level acting accordingly. With this not being easy for the most part because tops and bottoms are so difficult to pick it becomes much easier when you think of how inflation works and how to counter this. It's easy to realize that products and services over the years are going up in price. If you have been on this planet enough years then you have seen it first hand as you look back at your childhood and how much more these items cost. This is important to realize that inflation is real and that there are no current signs of inflation ending and the signs are showing more growth towards inflation. Therefore if you are buying on a long term time frame and you see prices go down much lower then it can be generally safe to say that is a buying opportunity. If you bought some bullion at $39.00 as it was crashing lower in May then you can and very easily should hit that bottom. If you bought again at $34.00 area then the same is at true as it would be heading below $30.00. The reason I say this is for those whom did this strategy in 2008 when it fell to $16, $12, $9 and if you had bought on all of those dips you made a great play. If your goal is to turn it quick for a short term gain then buying on weakness and strength can cause problems.

Is it likely that buying on these dips will turn out to be a great play? Using math probability odds the answer leans towards "yes" and on a personal level, I would rather store money in gold and silver not only because of its upside potential and probabilities, protection against dollar collapses, but the biggest reason I love it is because it allows you to save money while you eliminate the ease of easy transaction. When you save in cash it is very easy to spend it when you have it in some sort of safe because of how easy it is to do such a thing. Gold and silver actually need a buyer and therefore I personally find it easier to save when you do so in precious metals. I can't speak for everyone, but when I hold fiat money then there enters a little bit of fear that I will be left with this when the music stops during this game of hot fiat currency.

07.05.2011

Even though the silver market today had a massive gain of over four percent, it's still a bounce within' the trend back away from the bottom of this range and on the direction from the fifty still a ways to go to reverse the trend. The trend line is needed to break to confirm a buy signal as well as a break above 18% from the current fifty day low and this is currently a little over thirty-two per ounce. at eighteen percent gain this would take us to the levels around the thirty-eight barrier which is the massive target for this current state. This range has been a long one that was established over only two days on May 11 & 12th. Silver was as high as $39.48 on May 11 and was as low as $32.34 on the May 12. This means that the market has stayed with a 48 hour trading span in around two months. This is not normal market activities and yes there was manipulation on the way up as there is on the way down. The move in May is a reminder of this roller coaster and its not time to take off your seat belts as of yet as the fallout from this sideways consolidation has to play it self out. The longer a market stays sideways like this, then the larger the breakout or breakdown tends to be. This means a fast move either up or down and until the market breaks the highs and lows from those two days I label the market neutral and boring.