Friday, July 29, 2011


07312011 - UPDATE 2325 EST - Yes the debt deal was passed and I searched the internet right after I did the post three minutes from the market open as well as a few minutes before six o'clock to see what deal may have been done. I guess it came out later and the big down moves for gold & silver started at the beginning of the day. it is unclear how Gold/Silver are doing, and my guess is that the price might be cheaper in the late morning session after the news on how the economy is fixed floods the mainstream propaganda press. I don't think anyone is surprised that they came to an agreement and thus raise the debt even further. I am hoping all this debt clock will get some of the 'masses' to educate themselves on the creation of currency. Some revolutions(revolts) may take place now after this occurs, but I don't think it will be anything that newsworthy. Most likely we can carry on with the boring every day activities with the story of the day changing and thus a new story on its way at some point. If you want to know how money is created, I feel the best movie out there to explain this is the youtube search for "zeitgeist federal reserve". Stick this into some method of search if you are interested. Be back on Monday in the afternoon.

07312011 - UPDATE 1803 EST - Market opened volatile down to $39.62 or a gap lower of almost one percent as it was thirty cents down the second it opened. It then went down another thirty cents to $39.30 and its a couple minutes later and the price is 39.66 after it was 39.76 a few seconds ago. Buckle up for this roller coaster. It will be a ride this early week!

Weekly Chart closes this week at $39.89 and down a total of twenty-three cents for the week and up fifty-four cents over the last two weeks. Yes the last two weeks did a whole bunch of nothing as far as price movements are concerned and the size of the candles were very small when looking at percentage movements or volatility of each week. This weeks movement was 5.34% from the lowest and highest points and over the last fifty days the average was 8.8% percent moves. What is productive about this move is how it didn't sell off after it made great gains. When the market is bullish and even neutral whenever rallies occur they usually follow up with movements lower. Therefore those last two weeks of small losses and gains was followed from the bigger green candle which was almost a ten percent gain and for two weeks it is has held those gains. This has placed the market above the eighteen period average band with the direction of the average moving higher showing breakout signs :)

Quarter Day Chart is still having a test within' the five day moving average (20/4) and its now been going on for six days. It is looking like it may be used as resistance and start a down trend and it might, but with the length of time being as long as it has within' the test the market is very neutral and when that is the situation that means you look for buy opportunities for small chunks when its lower and below the average and sell when it crosses above the average. That play will work until the range breaks and then it will be a bad sale. As far as price action is concerned is the higher lows that is very impressive. The last three break lows on this chart are higher than the previous which means a hold above $39.33 will remain very important going into the next week. Debt Ceiling talks are next week and this should spur some volatility and some larger size red and/or green candles.

Daily Chart looks clear from here that this big level a hair above thirty-eight has now been support and since it has found support at this level it has stayed above this mark for twelve consecutive sessions as well as ten straight days where silver has traded over forty per ounce is showing that the market is holding this fibonacci level well. The market is only bearish on the shortest of terms because the three day, weekly, monthly, quarterly are all bullish to one degree or another and because of this we can very easily see the spark that we need to bring this market further to the upside. The price action has currently finding a test at this front weighted eighteen period average and this average is rising. Very often support is found at this area and a move from this level would not be a surprise. I am still cautious about the market because it has not tested the level of a hair above forty-two, but the run may not be over and the test can very easily come next week. If this market does break down below thirty-eight without a test of the forty-two mark then there might be a viscous fast move but as I stand here the odds of this happening does not favor such a case.

Quarter year chart is used for long term investors or bullion physical silver traders. It takes a long time for this chart to move because only four different candles will appear per year. The trend has a nice uptrend and it has pulled back a little from the highs in May. There isn't much more to say here because it is below '80 Highs as well as the highs from this year showing it is not super overbought and if anything it is super oversold when you adjust for inflation or comparing against other commodities and indices. The current green candle can very easily make a higher high than the previous one and would expect it to break past the $50 level this quarter or by the end of September. I am still buying physical silver because I know the prices are suppressed and I have no faith at all in fiat currency.

Three Day Chart gives each candle three days and the current tick is starting today for this chart and will end on Tuesday. This chart is in between the weekly and the daily and may put this as part of the series of charts that include the daily, weekly, monthly, six hour, quarterly and yearly. This chart had resistance at the eighteen period average band after the market caved in at the start of May and since that point it has moved higher after finding the thirty-three area as nice support. The bands are now rising and showing the buyers taking back control of the market. Nothing wrong with a little move lower if it happens on this chart because that would give us a chance to have support at the blue band where it can resume its long term uptrend.

MONTHLY CHART is coming to an end today as this is the final trading day of July. The month will end with a nice gain as it attempts to find lift off support from the eighteen period average of highs. When looking at this chart with a logarithmic view and putting a mind set of "Long term thinking" then the moves that bring silver from fifty to the low thirties is a normal regular correction that is not a surprise to occur. People believe this selling damaged the market and from day one I knew it had not because the size of the red candles for May & June were nothing extra ordinary. The size for July again is nothing extra ordinary as well as markets keep trading normal. The fifty dollar level is the next key resistance on this chart which matches the yearly highs as well as the '80 highs. Because this level has been tested quite often then the odds of taking it out go higher for new gains and the upper band currently set at 54.52 is the next level. The upper band in August will go higher and even $56 to $57 might be a nice level on a rally to look for resistance.


1 comment:

  1. silver drifted further and closed below the Rs 37,000 mark on the back of intense speculative unwinding, Silver (.999 fineness) slumped by Rs 150 to finish at Rs 36,850 per kg against Rs
    37,000 on Wednesday.