Thursday, July 14, 2011

07.14.2011

Daily Chart shows an interesting setup and the reason why you look for multiple different variables in making decisions. Normally when you rally to start a session and close near the area that you open you get a candle formation that is very bearish. These can often times come after the streak has been doing well lately. However, When we are coming off a five plus percent gain and it manages to hold above $38.00 since Wednesday afternoon or holding well for over thirty hours. This is a bullish sign and when its holding above the $38.11 fibonacci mark, I now look at this candle not as bearish but maybe even bullish. The reason for this is because it has came back to support. If you are the type of person whom wants the market to come back to the breakout point after it breaks out, then here you go and considering $38.12 was the exact level the market closed today at 5:15pm EST which has thus far been the bottom it is becoming magnificent. The more often you test a significant level, then the better the chances are that you take it out and when you look at this chart you can see we have had a few tests in this sideways correction. The upper band is well below the price action which tells me that there can be upside room for the market to move towards and the volatility chart (final chart) is now just breaking out that sets up some big moves. We are still waiting to confirm this move and time or price is what is needed for confirmation. Price by skyrocketing higher and time by showing setups that $38.11 is a thing of the past.

Weekly Chart has the market above the 18 period average of closes and because it has had a large price correction of one third its value as well as over two months thus far of sideways time correction gives reason for why this market can go very far very fast. Key word is can and this is being said because these corrections can be stated to build fuel for the next big move in the market. If you have been one of those people whom have been saying for months or years that you want it to pullback and load the boat or at least put a nice order in, then you have no excuses for timing now. We have seen mid thirty dollar silver for many weeks and it could be longer, but dynamics are currently changing. It seems the talk is all about the "Debt ceiling" and the word "default" which is now being placed with USA currency. These things will only make gold and silver go higher. If they do not raise the debt ceiling then the default happens and therefore the dollar has just collapsed. If they do raise the debt ceiling then you will get a lot of outrage and silver and gold will still go higher (maybe even short term) because of inflationary policies by the federal reserve.

Thank you for tuning into the blog today and below is the chart of the volatility on the quarterday time frame. This is measured by taking the moves during the 6-12 and 12-6 periods of (high - low) / low. Then a 20 & 80 front weighted average was put on this which is merely nothing more than the five day and twenty day front weighted moving average of moves over a six hour period.













Final Update for Now 11:52 EST - Site still down on ForexPros and I'll set up a day to do something this in the near future. I did this three months ago and that is making quick posts on market condition. That level i stated did bounce and was(is) a profitable bet if you play that game. Will be back in the afternoon/evening.

11:38AM - We should be at that bottom level that I mentioned from before. No guarantee it bottoms, but this is fibonacci support level

11:33AM - New bottom level has been changed from $38.45 to $38.48 and it looks like it will be tested soon.

11:24AM - Chart from link below has stopped working (for now) and the price has dropped. $38.61 now and the volatility in the market is showing us that things are picking up. I am predicting intermediate term down side, but hope it is not.

11:15AM - Interesting day today as it has crossed the $39.00 barrier and is holding above the $38.11 level and therefore we are at that major resistance point that has been talked about for quite some time. Over the next hour or two, depending on if I get called away or not I will be giving levels of where I think short term tops and bottoms may occur. Right now the top is $38.95 and the bottom is $38.45 using the levels from the following silver chart on the one minute time frame

No comments:

Post a Comment