On the 5m time frame today, the market sold of early and then the buyers came back to move it higher. When you see the market quickly come back to where it was on a sell off, then usually the technical analysis would point that the bias should be to the upside and thats exactly what happened and the day ended with market consolidating through time with the upward bias.
Yesterday on the blog I stated it was the 5/10 average up against the 20, 2011VWAP and 50 day average. Well it is at the 20 day average and the VWAP. The market is now neutral on the 15m time frame rather than bearish as it has got above the trend line and for it to head bullish it needs those key averages to start rising. This can happen on Wednesday if the market continues to rally and that would e super strong. If it sells of from here that is both bullish and bearish. It is bullish if it retraces down to the five day average where it finds support and then takes out the levels mentioned of resistance after the support test. It will go to bearish if it goes back in the downtrend line that was followed.
I was shaking my head to see why I had such a different low in the 15m chart and the daily chart for this chart. On the 15m chart I take the lowest level SLV has traded at over the last 1300 periods as their is 26 in a day. The reason why is because of holidays. Sometimes the market does not trade in the USA or trades for half days and thats why it had a difference. Based on this chart it needs to break above the 11%, 12% mark which would be the area of $29 an oz. I think that is a little late, because i think the entry point was the $28.33 level that I said last weekend as it was based on the break of the downtrend line. With that said, if you are buying bullion to protect against the dollar collapse, then by all means just buy what you can now.
The comparisons from this current rally and the one back in 1979 are very much similar to many degrees. Both of them came after the market bottomed many years before then with significant rallies. Silver bottomed at $4.00 less than a decade ago in the early 2000s and gained 347% to the level of the breakout. The level of breakout was $17.88 on August 24, 2010 according to LBMA. In the 1970s, the price of silver bottomed on January 4, 1972 at $1.393 per ounce and the 1979 breakout occurred at $5.942 on January 15, 1979 for a gain of 327% to level of the breakout. That is very close to the 347% that was in play most recently. Another common thread is the Hunt Brothers to the Internet Revolution. In the 1970s it was told by the "Propaganda Press" that the Hunts cornered the market and they made them sound like a huge villain. In reality, the Powers that Were for the early 1980s hit them hard because they had the power to manipulate the price of silver and they seen they could screw them over on margins calls, and thus they did. The Hunts were very smart to get into silver because they realized that creating fiat money out of thin air was not a productive measure and that within' inflation that Silver would not only protect their wealth, but would have a great shot of increasing their wealth as an investment. They made mistakes by using margin/leverage and they paid for it. The same is true today, but today's Hunt Brothers are the internet people whom are buying up physical bullion bars and rounds without any margin (at least I hope). In the 1970s the extreme extreme vast majority of the world was very clueless to how money was created and today its still the vast majority. I had to use the word "extreme" twice to emphasize that finding an individual in the 1970s to understand the creation of money and what the results would give us and what effects it was cause. There was only a very few whom understood. The media was monopolized back then by the powers that were as they controlled the radio, print and television. Today, more and more are understanding how we create fiat debt notes with great information on the internet. Therefore, even though right now the current rally is outperforming the rally from over 31 years ago, it has a long way to go to keep pace with it as a gain of 700% from the $17.88 breakout would translate to $142.24/oz.
comment sent to me on 02/01/2011
One person commented that waves and charts fail with manipulation. I replied back with "Charts can never fail unless you put inaccurate data in, because charts are results of what has happened." When there is manipulation to one side or the other the moving averages, MACD, even Fibonacci usually stay in tune with the manipulation. However, I got a reply back stating the following:
COMMENT-Sorry endlessmountain but charts do fail in fact they often fail otherwise more of us would be on the wining end...instead of losing. For example, none of your charts spoke of sudden increase of silver back in August of 2010...but the Webbots did hence the reason I confidently made my video on June 22nd telling subbers to buy silver has it would soon take off..charts didn't show that or you would have made a video telling your subbers to load up.
I hope your telling to buy NOW?
He stated they often fail, otherwise more of the people would be on the winning end. We'll then I guess you are not using skill then. This is a gambling game, and takes a lot of hard work. There are so many variables needed to be that of a winning player and if you are losing trying to use technical analysis, then I would suggest that you evaluate your play or just quit completely. Maybe blackjack or poker might be for you. Any of these games require skill and experience is what usually is needed to win. That's why when you start off trading, it might be best to use practice accounts to ensure you know what you are doing and then you can learn from your mistakes without losing fiat cash. Moving on, the next comment was that none of my charts talked about the sudden move. During July and August I did say "The longer we are in this range", the bigger the breakout/down usually is. Well, that happened and the breakout was large. I also said on August 24 the day of the breakout that it was time to take the rally seriously as well I gave a level of $18.60 to buy based on the "Direction from the 50 day average" chart. However, I don't care when I am right or wrong, because I don't like to look back on the past and reflect positively or negatively on it. Rather I look forward while enjoying every current NOW moment. This person obsessed with the webbots, but that is fine. They are right around 50% of the time and I did report on my channel before the rally regarding gold and silver as well as their report of "escalator steps higher" which is what the charts looked like in Sept/Oct. Then you said the Charts didn't show the big gains, and I made a video at the end of December for the reason why $100 this year is likely and it was based on the charts. You then say that I should tell my subs "To buy now". Yeah right, im not going to say that because I don't believe in dictatorships. I believe in free will and that my subs will buy silver because they did enough research to figure out it was a good play, and I am one of many sources for their decision making. I have stated why I buy silver on both a technical and fundamental level of fiat cash with no intrinsic value. But, everyone has their own reason for doing things
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