Thursday, February 10, 2011

02.10.2011

Reply back to StellaConcepts analysis


Stellaconcepts came out with the following technical analysis video:




I would like to take this time and state that I HIGHLY DISAGREE with you John. In fact, I would see that there there should be caution for those whom are shorting this, because the market action is very bullish (rather than that of bullish). 1Min 11 sec into the video John mentions that he has had a couple of subs state that it looks like a cup and handle formation and he has similar views to me. In fact, he stated it needs to get up to the $31 level to the neckline and I even would need to see more. Not only would I want to see a move to $31 neckline, but a pullback to $29ish to complete the handle. However this post has nothing to do with a cup and handle formation, nor did John's video and thus lets move on. John said at 1m 51sec that we have not reached the end of the cup (or the neckline of 31.40). My reply to this is the word "patience". It does not concern me at all that it has not happened yet. Maybe if it retraces more than 61.8% of this rally, then I would be concerned, but as of the posting of this article Silver is currently at $30.11 and this morning it was $29.65. When it bottomed at this level it had only given back 20% of its rally. This 20% was calculated by taking the top (30.50 subtract the big bottom of $26.30 to get $4.20). Then I took the amount that it had went down from $30.50 which is 85 cents. 85cents divide 4.20 is 20.24%. Then two minutes in John was stating the candle after the big one (2nd last on the chart below) is a bearish candle or one that reverses direction. What I was stating on Wednesday was that this was a productive day because from my analysis of candle stick patterns is that it shows a time consolidation from its previous large gain.

2nd Final comment will be the 61.8% retracement. The big highs on January 3, 2011 was $31.40 and the big lows on January 28, 2011 was $26.30. The 38.2% mark was $28.20 and the 61.8% was $29.38. Because it broke out past $29.38 very well, this shows that the selling in January was a failure. I would like to see the market fall back to $29.38 and thus previous resistance can become support which is a great entry point, but Tuesday had the breakout of this $29.38 and the chart on Wednesday confirmed the breakout with a market consolidation. Therefore as long as this rally holds 61.8% my views will stay away from being bearish on the intermediate term time frame. Currently with a high of $30.50 the 61.8% mark is $27.90 and $28.00 is the bottom of this sideways consolidation on the longer term chart. If we make a lower high now at this $30.50 level that is not a bearish sign, because the next high after that should be a higher one above $26.30 and thus it were to fall to $28.00/oz that would make the market more neutral.

Final Comment has shown how much I have succeeded in being under the radar. Now that John has put out this video, you are going to hear so many comments stating "OH Stella said this" and so many other things. What I never hear on the internet is "Endlessmountain said this." When silver topped at $31.28, I seen a total of ZERO PEOPLE whom gave me credit for calling an intermediate term top at this mark. This matched the amount of people whom gave me credit for calling the $25.00 bottom on November 17, 2010. However, with that being said, I would rather it be this way because I could care a less if I am right or wrong about previous decisions or calculated guesses. I feel however that it is in my best interest to put this article out, because I feel this video made by John has no reason to be concerned about a price downfall and the concern should be that we will make new highs past the $31.28 level.

1 comment:

  1. I'm glad you put this together, I don't know enough about technical analysis to see it one way or the other, but your reply article has made me feel better about not having the bottom drop out from here. Thanks !

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