Monday, September 26, 2011

09.26.2011 VOLATILITY

This chart gives me reason why this is the bottom that will either hold on future tests or not even test again like many other snapback rallies from monster sell offs which we had here. The reason I say more reason for such an ideal is because of where the two fibonacci marks are on this chart. The upper one is almost at $39.00 and this was a major level to say the least as low thirty-nine is affected in many ways with price action in Silver. The one below this is at 33.41 which is only seventeen cents away from that big fibonacci mark on the chart below. Unless the shit has hit the fan this market is going to take time to heal. If the shit has hit the fan then its going to go parabolic and the things you will see no one can imagine. I don't think the shit has hit the fan soon, but it is damn close which might make this "THE BOTTOM" but I am not calling that other than it's a good time to make the guess.

Silver market today was down forty cents or about one and a third percent after the market was down 16.2% and boom the market goes up higher. The move up makes me sick as does the entire move lower and the fact these movements are occurring within' our financial system. The snap back was very fast and very common to happen in these markets which can make day traders a lot of fiat digital dollars or lose a lot of them if on the incorrect side of the move. I enjoy playing games some times and anyone who is out here timing these wild volatile moves are insane or amazing at this game. Those whom study and put more of their energy and time into something will succeed better than those whom do not. Many stops got crushed last night when people were watching their Sunday night movie before they go to bed and they find out in the morning they got stopped out at 27.00 as they look at a 29.00 price on the screen that keeps climbing. This frustrates me because those whom play this game should be aware that this game is designed in such a way where for every winner there is there has to be a loser somewhere in the game so if you want to win you have to get good so you can compete with the best including supercomputers called High Frequency Trading. Final rant note before I get to volume is the Occupy Wall Street which is getting very little if any MSM coverage that has only been available on youtube. These are the kinds of revolutions that I expected to occur during this time frame and I have a funny feeling (intuition) that when it is all said and done, this movement will be very successful. My advice is to spread the message and if you have the balls to participate then you are a hero in my book. It is now obvious that being the protester whom is peaceful with PG signs and PG music to be in harms way and that has been the case. I have not seen any violence yet from protesters which is shocking because there are always hooligans, but these sort of things have to go on for the dollar to collapse and humanity to start working to a recovery from an evil debt based system. People will join the flock and this will grow. Weather does become a concern however as it is late September and only a month or so until the weather gets very nasty.

As far as volume is concerned, we are seeing this kind of manipulation play out and when you consider the may top to have volume as you see on the above chart and the volume now to be higher, but nothing like it was before shows me that the original down move was heavily caused within' the SLV instruments and used by the big bankers because they are the only ones whom can cause markets to rise up or down this big in a relative short period of time. The move that just happened must have higher volume on the Comex market? I don't know the figures, but I would make a calculated wager that it was at least as heavy as the start of May if not bigger. Also again done by wall street or world banks.

When I created these bands I made them to be a tougher challenge than the conventional bollinger bands give. In my opinion its a cry or a half ass moved that takes price action to the bollinger bands and over the the last few months I have used these bands they have worked outstanding. These were designed based on price action and volatility in a nice but simple math formula. What I have been saying with these bands is that when you reach one of them things can get wild. Usually you get either a sideways correction of some sort or off correction in the opposite direction. However the other possibility is the market keeps going in the same direction and when it expands these bands like it did here this means we are on radar for this getting of control and it did. This makes 2% moves turn into 5% moves fairly fast and so on. At one point before I went to bed last night the retracement of the band was -30% which is an insane level. Movements are getting larger now and the $26 low change level was a perfect hit once again and it was easy to tell it was going to test it this week (or soon) because of how it reacted on the breakdown of 33.58. Same thing is now true that we are almost guaranteed a test of the next fibonacci level which is $31.92 which co-insides with the long term upside level of $31.42. What is important is to hold 38.2% from the new lows earlier today and if that is the case we can state this has a good chance of being a pierce below.

The roller coaster has already begun. There is no more saying "It is going to be a roller coaster" but no, "IT IS A ROLLERCOASTER" right now and maybe I can not say it is going to come, but rather we have only entered the second gear and this baby still has fuel. For those times people have wondered when the sh@$% will hit the fan, well the answer might just be sooner than you think. The currency market and derivative markets need to crash and there is no way in hell this will happen under low or normal volatility.

Shorter term the movements on this has managed to move to where we were during the April time frame and therefore most likely the odds favor this level to be taken out. Last time when the volatility started it was originally showing gains as it went what seem thought to be out of control moving from $40 to $50 in no time and the plummet. Well maybe this time it is reverse where the original move is a down move which is followed by an even bigger move the opposite direction some time later on? I don't know, but this type of pattern has been on my mind for quite some time now as my January prediction for Silver had the market going to the 50 area with a pretty big crash and long correction through time which would originally have a fake move higher, followed by a fake move lower followed by the dollar collapsing and silver breaking $100. It is playing out currently how I thought and more aggressive than I had thought.



  1. Is everything ok with you? Looking forward on your take of the silver market. Hope all is well.