Tuesday, January 4, 2011

01.14.2010 - Market Dips below $30.00

Note - I did not expect to rant this much. If you get bored or your good at skimming then enjoy. There is a lot of good info in this article. Sorry for grammar and spacing. What you are getting is a rough draft on a project one would do in school. That is write an essay. This turns out to be a rough draft essay. I'll leave it like this for now and edit it in the morning.

Buying Dips!

When looking at this chart on the daily time frame the only time it has been correct to buy on the breakout was the original one at $18.00-$20.00 levels up to the $23.00 range. This is because the market slowly rose to $25 and then pulled back to $23.00. This meant buying at $23 and probably closer to $24.00 was already 4% move lower. This next rally brought us to $29.33 (Oh My!). The market corrected back to $25.00. This meant at least 2-2 buying opportunities starting at $28.20 and lower. $25 was the easiest and sweetest bottom call since the day I said to take this rally seriously on THE DAY it broke out back on August 24 (nod my head). Ok, I'm going to stop talking like Jim Cramer because I get many predictions wrong along the way. Instead, I will reply with Fibonacci did what it was expected to do and then some. The fundamentals support having some "and then some" days along the way. One of the predictions I got wrong was how short it was going to take us to $25.00 as I would have guessed a couple of weeks longer. Either way, it did what I wanted with $25.00 The next move is over $30.00 going back to $28.00 Maybe now that we have seen over $31.00 and we see this 5% move we buy on the first dip which just occurred. If it goes lower, you keep buying. The down side to that is a major bear market. The paper market has done this in the past.

However because the gain was only about 3% higher from December this means that this is an intermediate term top, which should bring us down to $26.00 as the first test. I'll come back later with that number. However, if todays levels can hold then this might be a breakout signal that should test the $36.50 number. This is the next level. If you can buy and sell at close to the same prices then selling at these key resistance marks has been profitable within' buying on the dips. This strategy seems so awesome and it does not work with parabolic moves. This is what it was like in September in full throttle turtle speed. It got up to $25.00 in no time or many weeks.

If silver had triple its volatility with the same movements to end this summer, we would have seen $40.00. It would be more common on 150%+ gain intermediate term rallies that massive swings using shorter time frame in or around a dozen days or big 12% kind of days and 7% moves in an hour and even one percent moves in a matter of seconds. This would be both up and down moves to those percentages. This could mean silver moving from $34 to $39 in ninety minutes. Then at $38.00 it loses 38 cents in 38 seconds. It happens sometimes. Maybe it does it 3.8 seconds. Who knows, the market can move very fast. In 2008 the Dow Jones was having 200 point moves over a cup of coffee. The Dow is also a collection of thirty stocks that reduce its volatility. The volatility of Silver is larger and we live in a world where at any moment its possible that on the clear view that massive 40% move is coming or whatever great lengths. In Math we were asked questions like 60% of 48. People said you can't use this in the real world and I know that answer to be 28.8. Having a day where silver goes up 40% in 5 weeks or 5 days or 5 hours would bring the market to $77. If this April morning has Silver going from $48 to $77 in one day or over a week then the mainstream will have to cover it. People are going to want to know why its going higher and then they will be told.

This video came out (below) and it should be animated short of the year. This video is expected to get embedded often and having more views on facebook, twitter or whatever means out there will help wake the people. Maybe this is the movie to show the kids? If they get scared, show then your gold/silver. Thanks for reading, watching and supporting the site.

)Earlier Rant) The videos above contain todays silver analysis as the top one. I'll talk more in just a sentences as it was a great day. The second video talks about strategies for either waiting for a nice dip or a confirmation for a big move higher as well as how I look at some basic selling strategies. The third video was made about a month ago talking about the significance of this $31.40 level of the 685% mark. The last video was the cartoon that was written well with a name that can help attract hits which works so good because the whole system is a dream that we can prosper as well as it has the potential to be #1 on google. Right now it is not on page one. The earlier rant did end when I talked about the last video. Therefore back to the Eaelier Rant

Now on to todays action. It was wild and fierce. It retraced more than most other days as the trend seems to be bottom between 10am and noon. It was a little longer and a little more fierce. $30.00 was not only psychological, but was also the 38.2% retracement. It did not hold and it was off to the basement in price action. On the long term analysis this move means absolutely nothing other than that small dip where one may add to the collection. Either way the reason why the market moves either up or down is because of the market makers whom have the excess paper fiat notes to make these bets. One may say that those individuals want to suppress the price lower. This depends on if they are "Ready, willing and able." Ready is part of the "action" of actually doing what is necessary. Willing and able is another one. If they want to suppress the price lower are they willing enough to do so? If they are willing enough are they able to do so? Just because they want to crash this, are they even able to get this under $20 again? I don't know if they are able to or not. I know with every action having a reaction that if they bring it down to $15 or even much cheaper below $11 that the reaction would be massive buying and revolution against the powers that done this. Thats why if you are holding on a physical level and the price goes this lower then you will see such a thing happen. Maybe they are not willing to suppress it this much lower because they know what will happen? I don't know, I am only guessing to this degree, but the important part is knowing that the only way they can do this is if they are ready, willing and able. After all would you sell a regular 1 oz maple leaf silver coin for $300? I would think everyone would because they can go out and get a handful more. Therefore would you be ready, willing and able to do so? Well I would know your ready and you might be willing to do so, but being able to do this right now is not really possible and thus you are not able to do so.

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