Tuesday, January 18, 2011

01.18.2011

Failed head and shoulders pattern?
$28 Hold?

A textbook head and shoulders pattern was made on the silver market and yet it can not fall below the major $28 level which is a 23.6% fibonacci retracement from the August breakout and the recent highs. When i first got into technical analysis the head and shoulders was the first pattern that I was taught and I was told it is accurate at a high rate, but not 100%. It might be 80%, but its not 100%. It seems now as Silver is flirting with $29.00 that this pattern will not work. If this $28 holds then the sang "From failed moves can create fast moves in the other direction" can come into play. The failed move is that the head and shoulders pattern was not able to break below $28 and thus the fast move would be a move to at least the recent highs of the market which are currently at $31.28. I will have more later on the day, including charts and most likely a video. Thanks you





On the very short term time frame here is a head and shoulders pattern. If this baby fails and the $28.70ish area holds, then we are in for a wild ride. If it fails, then we are back down to a probable test of the $28.00 level








The video does not have analysis on the images above. We have found some support at the 50 day moving average as of now. If you bought at this level, then so far you have bought at "THE BOTTOM" for the year. Doesn't mean it will hold as a breakdown on this head and shoulders pattern gives us price objections to the $25 to $26 levels. Still below a declining five, ten and twenty day moving averages. Because the 50, 100, 200 day moving averages are rising and it is above those levels, I would expect that the shorter term averages to flatten and move higher in the next little while. This could mean that we have further downside and a test to the 100 day. The 100 day average is a shade above $25.00/oz and the 200 day is even well below that level. I will bring those averages in if the $28.00 level gets taken down. If it doesn't then there will not be any need for it as the trend will continue higher.

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