Wednesday, April 6, 2011

04.06.2011







Market Sentiment Change for Intermediate Term


Nothing has changed long term and $50 seems very close now being around 25% of increases required to test the $50 handle and the indicators I have pointed out for so long are now screaming for $50.00 to play. It kind of scares me how its going to be said by so many that at $50.00 when it comes (not if) that there will be lots of talk of Silver going back losing between 25% up to 75% with a median around 37%. They will talk all they want that its 31 year resistance and that its bound to see a top. Many indicators that have been bullish for years will go to neutral and uncertain on future gains. That is until you factor in the inflation adjusted chart which has a test in the $120 to 180 level as one retracement level. The $50 high from 1980 is in comparison to much greater numbers today with that of inflation. Heck, the biggest reason I am into silver over other asset classes is because it was that high in 1980. It shows how compressed and the $4 bottom a decade ago was grand larceny for anyone whom was smart enough to know $4.00 was a bargain. The scary part is that you could say only Harvard grads figured it out with all the silver information being hidden to us during this time. Because of all this, the $78, $120 targets coming are in near sight and the long term view stays buy no matter what. If you are playing for Silver to win over a dying fiat currency and levels in the triple digits and beyond then there is need to wait for a dip to buy silver below $78 right now. If the market crashes over a few days or weeks, then so be it. We know how this bogus game is done and that it's bogus that these paper people can take it from $50 to $32 in a matter of four weeks. You are right it is bogus, but because physical dealers usually or always sell their fine silver for a hair over spot you can take advantage of these lower prices while it is still cheap.

As far as the change is concerned, I have switched mine to SELL-HOLD at $40.70 area and I will be selling none currently and only buying what I consider a "Deal" until the market tells me otherwise. The reason this level is a hold is because it's had a nice run higher and is due for a small correction of around 15% to the $34-35 area. I don't think that it will happen, but I have seen it before so many times. I think it will run on up to $50 with regular price and time corrections along the way, and at this level is where it moves to HOLD-SELL and then buy on breakouts. By selling today you should try and get top premium for it. I would avoid the dealer and work towards people you know who are buying silver as well as internet classifieds. Try and get $45 for your maples or eagles or $43 for the rounds. There are plenty of buyers right now and these things are selling nice right now. By selling on the intermediate term, the best suggestion I can think of is to turn those dollars in to goods you need or other investments at the cheaper prices. if you wanted to buy a nice patio set which was $400 a year ago and is $420 today you can look at it as getting this for $180 of the money you invested twelve months ago. Another thing you can do playing this intermediate term top is to hold the fiat money and then put it back in to silver after it falls. If you buy on a move to $35 and find deal for $40, then buy selling for $45 you just made $20. If you have a large position and trade a roll of eagles, you may get another couple coins and thus increase your holdings by playing dips. As stated, sell SMALL is the way to go because if I am wrong (and thus your wrong for doing it also), then you only lose out on a small amount because you limited your risk. Myself I am selling at $50.00 and I will do so using SpotMex. Shortly after the site opens, i'll list a few for $58.00 and let the message of the market tell me when I can sell. It will not be many, but it will be some as I expect there to be a chance of a decent size correction and thus I can guarantee something for profit taking. I will go more aggressive on the sales for coins at $70.00 and maybe might even put some offers for $80.00. I don't know about that yet, but I'll wait and see. Spotmex is a site where you can buy and sell silver. If you are not familiar with it. There is a video below that has more information.

4 comments:

  1. Because of all this, the $78, $120 targets coming are in near sight and the long term view stays buy no matter what. If you are playing for Silver to win over a dying fiat currency and levels in the triple digits and beyond then there is need to wait for a dip to buy silver below $78 right now.

    What do you mean in the part in bold?

    ReplyDelete
  2. What a rally. Any thoughts on when spotmex will open? 2 months? 6 months? Longer?

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thanks for your easy-to-understand explanations. I just learned about PM a month ago after reading Mike Maloney's book. I'm totally convinced, but as a newbie, I'm also totally overwhelmed by all the charts, trends, timing info.... I finally bought my first 500 oz yesterday and I've been hyperventilating ever since. I have about 200k more I could spend. I also have about 30k in an IRA I could buy silver with.

    Could you offer some words of guidance (and encouragement) for someone like me? Should I just buy now and not worry about the "dips" or hold on to see if there's a correction? If you have any recommendations on the nuts and bolts of buying (what dealer, bars or coins, any gold in the mix?, home or vault storage, etc.), I'd really appreciate it.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Oh, I forgot to mention, I'm purchasing for the long-term. Can not stomach all the ups and downs!

    Thanks a lot!

    ReplyDelete