Wednesday, April 27, 2011

04.27.2011



OFF TOPIC - Thank you JSNIP4 for providing a great link to why the Birth Certificate is fake. JSNIP4 talks a lot about silver and many great things and if you are not subscribed to his channel, then I would recommend it.

Obama Birth Certificate Fake


UPDATE 7PM EDT


This is wild and crazy for the minor leagues we are in. The article below will explain why minor leagues. Fibonacci had no resistance on both the 38.2% and 61.8% marks and rather than finding resistance at that major 61.8% target it has found support. If we can hold above the 50% mark for at least six or seven hours then it looks to be setting up big for a monster break. The 161.8% of this range works out to a price objective of $53.00. May I also point out that it is not uncommon where it can make it to the next level (58.14). I should point out that when you are talking about reaching the second level it can often times take many candles. From the breakout I can only guess it would take around 30 candles to reach the 161.8% and that spans a day and a quarter. The 261.8% target can at times take 100-200 ticks or week a two in time. This of course is only a guideline and we have yet to confirm that the five dollar sink to be a failed breakdown.


POST MARKET REPORT


A three dollar up day from top to bottom and the third straight day where the movements from the lowest to highest level exceeded five percent. This is the first time this has happened since June of 2009. I only have daily records going back to September 29, 2008 and during this time frame the market was very volatile making the current move for the status of the minor leagues. The movements from 09/29/2008 to 11/06/08 had an average top to bottom move per day of 9%. To put into perspective how volatile this time was there has only been five days since November the sixth with at least nine percentage moves. Three of them came very quickly from that end point in 2008 (volatility cool down point) and the most recent one was last November. The largest day in 2008 was over 30% when Silver fell from $12.24 to $9.30. A Three dollar drop is much different at $12 as it is at $50 because three bucks on fifty is only six percent. Six percent on twelve dollars is around seventy-five cents. The reason I am saying this is to point out that we are not at massive volatility within' the comparison to what we experienced before. Most of the time you get periods of ten percent moves over and over again per day means you are selling off (most of the time) or you are experiencing one of those very rare major lift offs to the upside and that has only ever happened once and that was in late 1979 and into the first few days of 1980. I truly believe that the odds of having at least one of those monstrous up moves that spans a few days to occur. Picking the day or week is almost impossible, but what is possible is narrowing which days have a realistic shot. The only way it should happen is if you are in a secular bull market (check mark) and you are breaking the rate of ascent on many levels (check mark) and the fast sell offs are only that. (Fast and check mark)

If the 1979 comparison is going to be DEAD ON ACCURATE for time on the big breakout move, then all I can say about that is that it is 17:35pm EDT and there is about eight hours or so left before the next LBMA update and good luck. But with what happened today after the fed meeting and the big moves that followed it kind of makes me wonder if somethings brewing. The trend remains very strong and shorting this market is very risky as you battling against the path of least resistance. The poll on the right hand side started last week and it was a 2-1 ratio of Yes to No for seeing $50 by the end of this month. Then after what happened on the weekend it changed from 2-1 to 3-1. Its now settled in the middle around 2.5-1 yes over no and myself I switched it to "NO" on Tuesday morning and it I placed it back to "YES" this afternoon because this baby looks good to go and an increase of volatility is easily possible after viewing the data from 2008.


Fed Speaks Today!



12:30 PM Eastern / 9:30 AM Pacific the Federal Reserve minutes are today and on a technical level that usually means higher volatility than the current average. I am not interested in what Mr. Ben Bernanke has to say today unless he happens to against the grain and say something earth shattering. I think its a safer bet that the winner of this years superbowl will be the Cincinatti Bengals and they'll go 19-0 in pro football in a year there may not even be a football season. The odds are lottery like as would the odds be for Ben Bernanke to explain so that the average person can understand that its a debt based world or have Ben say that the gold standard is coming back or even for Ben to say he is sorry and he and other banks were greedy. Those things you aren't going to see. What you will see is talk about inflation at two percent or maybe even three. The word "Jobless Recovery" has now fallen down the waistline and those are the creative type of buzz words I expect. For a chart technical level, what normally happens is the volatility to go lower in the moments leading up to the event and then things to explode as the meeting starts. Normally the fed meetings state 2:15pm EDT and this is one is earlier. That means at exactly 12:30 the stock market, the dollar, the bonds market as well as gold and silver will move violently. Because the average hourly move was well over one percent from top to bottom to start this week the odds would state it could be a 4% move in less than an hour after the meeting. This is hard to say how aggressive it will be. Check back later on as I hope to show an awesome intraday chart from 12:30 to whenever this thing cools down.

1 comment:

  1. Hi Mike, thank you so much, following you everyday, and reloading the page every five minutes for you new comment or video, as well as reloading the charts, since I feel it is a crucial time for what I have in mind, which is selling gold to buy silver, since in the prospect of further high, gain in silver should be at least double. Any advice ? My broker will be off to bed when that meeting you're talking about will start. Should I wait until tommorow ? In both case (sell gold or not, I expect the great surprise waking up.. All the best, Mathieu.

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