04.22.2011

Silver Closes Friday at $47.22?? and trades until 6pm EDT!


I seen the live ticks trading at this point up until 6pm EDT which was very unusual. Right now I am more creeped out than anything as movements that gain two percent are often times hardly worth mentioning, but when you have these moves happen behind close doors it makes you think. I'm going to do my best and say "MEH" in regards to what happened today and use the open of Sunday's market as a gauge. I know bankers do wild things behind the scenes and it should be obvious to most people. I expect when the wild things engage that it will occur over a weekend and we are moving into a weekend. This will be the last post of the day and I will make a new thread for Saturday.












GOOD FRIDAY TRADE - UP ONE CONSPIRACY DOLLAR


The reason I say conspiracy is because it is a conspiracy theory if it is in fact $47 or $46 silver. It is a conspiracy theory to what happened to cause todays action and the entire dollar system maybe entitled as a conspiracy that money is debt and backed by nothing. I'll let you be the judge of that one. As far as price action is concerned, it looks as if this $47 and change price is correct and the most likely scenario over the weekend is that people will still be unsure and the market will open on Sunday night at 6pm EDT and it will open at around $47 and change and be very volatile. On my chart I have made the entire price move occur within' only one hour for my data which is going to make my volatility chart go haywire for a little while. This means Silver is under two percent away from the $48.36 fibonacci level and under six percent from the $50.00 psychological level. This also means eight straight up days in a row and sixteen of the last eighteen days are on the upside and the "Friday Trade" I talked about last week and the one I thought was going to be on the sidelines for a week increased its gain once again and it's hot streak continues. Wild and crazy times to say the least.


VOLATILITY

This information is unofficial for the last result because I still do not know what happened on this mysterious Friday holiday morning at around 10:00AM EDT. This is a late in my opinion to think this has anything to do with the Asian market. There is around 12 hours of a time difference with China making this around 10pm on their Friday night. That doesn't make sense to me that it comes from China. Could it have been India? It would have been around 8pm in India and would have to say "NO" to that. Could it be Europe? There is only a five hour time difference from New York City and London and therefore it would have been around 3pm in England. I still don't think that to be the case. My guess is this move was done within' the American soil and the volatility this should engage can be quite enormous for both up and down moves.


GAMBLING

1. a. To bet on an uncertain outcome, as of a contest.
1. b. To play a game of chance for stakes.
2. To take a risk in the hope of gaining an advantage or a benefit.
3. To engage in reckless or hazardous behavior

The first part of the gambling definition tells me that life pretty much is an ongoing gamble. I buy physical silver because I love it's risk versus reward potential and thus it is my gamble. If you were getting ten to one odds to guess a random suit of a standard playing card deck you would be gambling because you are unsure if you will win. However, your risk versus reward would be very good as you would win ten units one out of four tries and lose one unit three times for a total of seven units gained. In the real world it can be very hard to find what the true risk versus reward ratio can be when trying to make wagers that have several calculations. Therefore if you are making trades on this paper market for higher or lower prices you are gambling because you are not sure on the outcome. The 1b Definition says playing for stakes which is done for certain on the stock market and it also said playing a game. It totally is a game in trying to pick top and bottoms and buy at a lower price than you sell for and short at a higher price you cover at. The final one is reckless behavior and that is not always true, but is most definitely true with many gamblers. I spent some time in my twenties and seen many gamblers lose it and it can be a problem. Most gambling games are set up to so that the gamblers lose in the long run and I wont to comment on an anonymous user whom has been trying to be cool by shorting silver.


It was two weeks ago and a video came on the internet stating that silver was overbought at $40.00/oz. The indicators used are ones that I stay away from and that is stochastics and apparently because they were over 80 that it was time to go short. Despite the five day moving average in an uptrend and despite the fact that we have had confirmation using fibonacci to the $50.00 level on two occasions. Using one indicator for this play seems very strange in my opinion. It's like betting against a sports team because of one trend that goes against them and then ignoring all the others. The user shorted again up to the $42.00 handle. Then Friday of last week came and the market ended the week up very good closing at $43.40 and all of a sudden all the videos were taken down. I thought that was very cowardly myself and I was not surprised. What did surprise me however was the channel got back up again this week with a service stating how good this person is at in defeating the market. Maybe this is like your regular sports tout whom gives away free picks that are not as good as the premium one and thus the free pick (Short of silver) was the loser. I don't know because I have no interest in that service because it is way too shady for my opinion. The Short silver video updates came back and I found it hilarious that the net results on the first two shorts below $42.00 were overall small losers. Especially since the original video stated to cover the shorts when the stochastics went much lower. This didn't happen and because the video was removed I can't refer back to it. On the Friday morning video the user stated at the end some words like "I'm gonna short me some more silver at 46 and change" and this sounded like a teenage kid trying to be cool because he or she is going to get drunk some more. The play was shorting the Double Long ETF which has double the gains up or down for the most part. This means with the silver market already up 2% with the moves bringing silver to $47.60 that this one is already down 4% and could be more on Monday. I would prefer for the trend to tell me to short with a declining five day moving average and the move to $50 has now been confirmed for months that the earliest I would consider guessing tops would be a this level solely on this one factor.