05.31.2011

UPDATE 1150PM EST

The five day moving average currently at $37.83 maybe tested very soon. The one day moving average is rolling over and I am very confident this five day average will hold as support and that we will move towards the fifty day moving average. Therefore if we have any selling in the next little while I would expect that area to be where a bounce will come from. If we survive the 8am to 10am EST thrashing tomorrow because if it doesn't occur or its a small dosage then I would be thinking the push higher is near. If those bears are right then the push lower should occur very soon, however I don't expect this to happen. The poll on the right has surprised me as many people are newly finding out the corruption of how currency is made and showing growth to be exponential. In 2008 I was researching this for a quite a while and as of now I am the only vote for finding this out in that year. This is what is going to crash the currency and thus tangible assets will hold its value. Thanks for voting and stopping by. Have a good night/morning.

05.30.2011

05.27.2011

HOURLY SHORT (End of Day Report)

The market is showing some nice breakout signs and ready for another test of the significant $39.00 area which has several fibonacci blocks and the fifty day moving average. Boy would this create a big failed move if the fifty is not much resistance and maybe this will be the top for the next wave lower with higher volume coming. That is tough to say and as long as we are between $32 and $39 (over 20% range) then the market will be in the boring mode and the fast moves coming soon. The currency is dying and the advantage to the USA dollar index losing is it least creates the awareness to the people that the dollar is losing strength. It tracks fiat debt notes over other fiat debt notes over other fiat debt notes, but the story-lines that occur on the propaganda press would be enough to signal inflationary worries and concerns. The video below explains more to why the currency is dying. (at the least the USA one versus others)




GOLD ANALYSIS

The trend lines shown in this chart are parallel and have the same distance on each higher level. The gold market is looking to head towards level four bull market as it is breaking through the current resistance field that was first resistance in 2008 when it reached a thousand per ounce. No reason at all to think that this market is going to slow down and if anything the reason is for this market to keep going higher as the currency keeps being devalued with fiat money. Long term I am a little concerned with gold's future because of golds tangible uses in what I predict to be the end of a materialistic world, but at the same point it would expected that this unique metal would be needed in some sort of new industrial use and if it is needed in large quantities the scarcity issue will become a problem. Short term however this is a great hedge against fiat paper inflation.

SILVER TO GOLD RATIO

This chart is the polar opposite of the gold to silver ratio and thus the silver to gold ratio and how many mg of Gold is needed to buy an ounce of silver. This chart exploded large and has now corrected very large. It is at 700 or at an area where twice resistance was previously met. The historic ratio is around 16 to 1 and that would work out to 2,000 on this chart and we are a long way from being at that level. My personal belief and calculated research is that the ratio is going to not only go back to its historic sixteen to one mark but even go lower thus this chart should remain bullish and maybe go over three or four thousand. The intrinsic value for gold is very weak in comparison to silver and the silver market seems to be more suppressed than the gold market is. During these end times when we are going through the stages of the end of the currency these charts should remain volatile as panic sets in the currency market.

SILVER more VOLATILE than GOLD

This chart is showing only a potential breakout of silver containing more volatility and with the currency dying right now it most likely will keep going higher. In the late 70s the Silver market went from around $6 to $50 while gold went from $400 to $800 showing much larger gains. Lets assume gold reaches $4,500 and thus gains 200% then the most likely scenario is silver gaining over 1000% and having more wild movement. If silver makes these kinds of gains that would mean over $300 per ounce and moves like this in a quick period of time need to have something unusual for this to be the case, but its not every year a currency dies.



No more silver commentary on the blog and I'll try and get one video out (probably on Sunday) but there is not much to go over now and will focus on the gold charts I promised later tonight as well as any odds and ends that I can think of. If you have any suggestions or requests then please mail me with a comment here, on youtube or @endlessmountain on twitter

05.26.2011

DAILY SHORT

Day 17 of this battle between the fifty day average (resistance level) versus the fibonacci line at $33.58 (Support level). Someone commented on one my videos earlier that they wanted me to say "boring" again and I guess I have no choice and thus even though the intermediate trend is higher and bullish its going to be boring as long as its in this range to the area of $39.00. If it does break $39.00 this will cause many shorts to exit out of their trade as well as add more liquidity in buyers to the market. A break below this level will get some more people to panic and some more people to celebrate nice physical buying opportunities as the disconnect grows further. I think its likely that the breakout will be to the upside but in the binary of system of choices that means it has to be greater than a 50% chance and it probably isn't much higher to do so. Therefore, i'll label this as boring until the break and the lower volume on SLV should spark a rally soon, and if you are looking to buy on strength I would wait until the 50 day has a clear breakout.

HOURLY SHORT

Stabilizing so far above a newly rising five day moving average and below a newly declining one day average. The bolder black line is a very big level which was drawn weeks ago and fibonacci once again showing its true colours of being very accurate. At this point the market is trying to find direction as the last few weeks show major bearishness and the long term are bullish. The long term also says its normal or not a surprise for there to be more selling based on where this market is. No guarantee that the market will go lower or go sideways to the five day average, but it looks like a test is coming soon. We still need to climb above $39.00 and really into the forty dollar range to nullify the bear trends that have been haunting us over the last few weeks. As long as the $35.00 holds then I like the short term future of the market.


GOLD ANALYSIS

The trend lines shown on gold are parallel lines (equal rate of increase/decrease for each one) and connect three main points. The first one is the support level that has been touched around seven times and has not been tested since it lifted away from the 1300 area back in January. Today that level is around 1410. The middle line connects several resistance points which was last hit when gold came close to the 1600 level. The highest line that is shown connects the two times that gold got above this trend line at the start and end of 2009. I think this line is going to be important because a break above this with confirmation would really be another sign that would show the end of the currency and moves to the explosive gains many expect. If you think Gold is going to $3,000/oz or higher because the currency is collapsing or the end of the mayan calendar then there will be no choice but to have a major break above this trend line. For now, this level has been a great trend channel that has lasted for almost three years running now.

SILVER PRICED IN GOLD

If you are looking for the gold to silver ratio, then this is it (backwards) and normally when the gold to silver ratio goes up (this going lower) it means that both silver and gold are selling off and when the ratio goes lower (this going higher) then they both go up. In fact the ratio on this chart went up better than double (ratio losing more than half) and the price of both gold and silver went higher. Silver went from $18 to $47 and gaining over 150% from its value and gold gaining only around twenty percent. The bottom level I have from May 12 is only an (if this is a bottom) as tops and bottoms are well known after the fact and picking tops and bottoms is a very difficult thing to do. Those whom can consistently pick tops and bottoms are that of liars although by using fibonacci you can be profitable long term in doing so, but after silver found great support earlier this month at $39 (LOL, it did not find support) you can see why you can not be right all the time. There will come a time soon when we will need to measure not only the price of silver but many other assets in something like gold because the expiration date on the dollar is nearing.

SILVER IS MORE VOLATILE


Well this shows how much more volatile silver is over gold. How this is calculated is it takes the daily volatility of silver divide the daily volatility of gold. This is calculated by taking the (High-Low)/Low and thus how much higher was the move from its daily low. Today for example the high for silver was $38.85 and the low was $36.32 or a difference of 6.97%. Gold had a high today of $1,531.20 and a low of $1,515 for a difference of 1.07%. Dividing those two numbers gives us a difference of 6.51x more volatile than gold. Also the scaling has been changed for some major days of a larger differential because this one looked better. It makes me wonder if this increase of volatility of silver over gold is going to lead to something and am not sure what I will find when I display the last fifteen years or so which is what will be scheduled on this blog Friday evening with the gold chart, ratio and volatility differential. Stay tuned for that and have a great day.

05.25.2011

60M CANDLE CHART (Short)

On the video earlier I mentioned that it looked like it could break the resistance trend line level that is shown based on having a half a dozen consecutive hits at his level without any support with the lower end and thats exactly what happened. I drew out a level where resistance could be met if broke that pattern and that has not happened or not yet anyway but what has transpired is the trend line of resistance becoming that of support. That is strong when a resistance uptrend becomes support and it seems the test of $39.00 is in the cards. There maybe some short term corrections with sideways action or a move down all the way down to possibly the five day moving average but it seems likely for this to be the case. The likelihood $39.00 either corrects a decent amount in price or time is very high. The message on the market for the short and intermediate term is bullish. The level after that is bearish or neutral and the more longer term levels haven't been bearish in years and the most long term analysis has had the market bullish since it first reached double digits over a half a decade ago. Therefore the bias overall is more bullish than it is bearish but I do need to see the $39.00 level to have a confirmed break out to be really excited. I said earlier that the next buying levels was either a move at $29-$31 (which didn't happen) or a bullish breakout. The confirmation for the five day is not enough and thus I need a confirmation breakout on the 50 day average. Stay posted to this channel for that update. I did buy a week ago because I was able to get a good price and by waiting for a move to $30.00 would have only saved me maybe $20.00 fiat Canadian notes because I only bought ten ounces. I will not buy again until June and most likely will wait until a move to $27 on the down side or the 50 average confirmation as well as the 50 day high/low confirmation which I have on this page.


DAILY CHART (Short)

Often times I look at charts and see this like a football game or hockey game (competition) and its XXX vs. YYY and in this case its the Fibonacci support, the vwap as well as the 100 day average (not shown) that is the support level versus the 50 day average and the massive amounts of fibonacci that are at the $39.00 area. One is going to win and that will either be the break above or the break below. The break above means this was it for the correction and the bull market will continue. the break below this level will be a larger correction with the $25.00 fibonacci mark coming into play. I think we have seen the bottom, but not sure as this is a manipulated market. It's logical to think that the powers that be could be pricing in the markets lower to not only get as many of us people whom are getting out fiat or riding the bull market to leave their positions but more importantly to acquire more silver at fire sale prices because you have to think the people who run this country know that the dollar is dying also and possibly are planning how they collapse it. I need to see tangible fundamental evidence to get out of my silver position and I don't see any logical reason right now to get out.


15M LINE CHART

The lines on this chart are a bunch a different ones including the 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 day and some vwap(s) levels as well. I don't even really check anymore on this specific chart other then let my computer do the number crunching for me. This chart gives a lot of information for the market direction. It has found support on many different levels and is now facing resistance at two with the red line that is flat (50 day) and the brown line looks like the twenty day average to me and the purple line looks like the VWAP from the start of the year highs. The uptrend line is currently at $56.61 and rising and this is still the level I need to see taken out with confirmation to call this market parabolic. I have been stating this since the fall of 2010 and I still live by it and especially since the $50 hit a month ago was at this line. In the last month the level has went higher by over ten percent.

Dates below show where this trend line was when it ended the month as well as the price
AUGUST - $19.58 (Price $19.35)
SEPTEMBER - $22.08 (Price $21.80)
OCTOBER - $24.88 (Price - $24.72)
NOVEMBER - $27.99 (Price - $28.08)
DECEMBER - $31.73 (Price - $30.87)
JANUARY - $35.58 (Price - $28.02)
FEBRUARY - $39.90 (Price - $33.87)
MARCH - $45.55 (Price - $37.67)
APRIL - $51.07 (Price - $47.98)
MAY - $57.59


DIRECTION FROM THE 50 DAY HIGH/LOW

The blue line (direction from 50 day high) is above the orange and thus the sellers still show to be in control. For me to use this indicator to go long the orange line has to be above the blue one. I also want to see some pattern develop where resistance is met at some level and its an easy clear breakout signal as the last two were. In August it had a resistance level of around 8% and I posted on the blog around $18.70ish as the level to go long. In February it established resistance at 11% or so and it had a nice looking breakout again. I will keep you posted on signals to go long from this indicator and right now its just "wait" for this to play out better. The move where it made new lows in May was the first time this happened ever on this chart which goes back to last years summer and thats impressive. Overall long term this is another indication of the bulls in charge within' this market and the selling we are seeing is a counter trend move.

05.24.2011

END OF DAY MARKET REPORT

The market had a nice rally today and is now in an unconfirmed bull market on the intermediate term by that of the five day moving average. For this to be confirmed I need to see a test of support near or at the five day and then make new highs. Another way of seeing this is if it can get above this key fibonacci level around $36.75 and hold Above it for a few hours. This does not give clear buy signals as of yet because it is only up around 15% from its $32.00 bottom and has only retraced a small amount from the high of almost fifty dollars a few weeks ago. That level is more important to clarify buy signals for the longer term if you are looking to buy on strength. If people have been waiting for a pullback then there is no excuse to not get in now because you either should have taken advantage of those lower prices by now or wait for confirmation off a break past the fifty average. What I don't want to hear when the market goes past $40 and even $50 is "im hoping for a pullback" and I know I will hear it, but there is no excuse on price action for people to not be in the market.


VIDEOS

05.23.2011

The direction from the 50 day low and high indicates how far the current price is from these levels. Being 40% from the high means that it needs to gain 40% to get back to the high seen around four weeks ago. This also can tell you if the bulls or bears are in charge by which one is higher than the other. By looking at this chart it is obvious that the bears are finally in charge as its been mainly bullish for months. To use this for an indicator to go long I would not only need to see it move past the 10% mark off the low but even over the last resistance point at around 15%. What would also be nice is if the market can establish a resistance level around 10-12% and then play on the breakout of the level. Tomorrow some time I will update the 1979 comparison.







POST MARKET UPDATE -Same old story, same old dance. Market is in a tight range and is having a hard time getting any momentum going. Lots of indecision and the longer it stays like this, the bigger the aftermath details will be. Take care everyone.






1100AM UPDATE - Still boring and still neutral as far as the short term is concerned. It has stayed above the five day moving average, however the average is not rising and thus it is flat. The longer this market stays in a boring trading range like this then the bigger the breakout(down) usually is and what happens is many long and short positions hold on to their position because they have their stops outside of the range. This means when it breaks one way or another with added participants you can get explosive moves one way or another. The fundamentals of what silver can do in industrial practices or the fact that we have a piece of fiat crap as currency means nothing as its paper traded game and if the powers that be want cheaper prices to get their silver then they will most certainly keep the price lower if they can. Until then I am going to be very less active on this channel and thus take a small vacation.

05.19.2011

2300 EST UPDATE

What can I say other than "Boooring" and "Productive" (Maybe). It is definitely boring as the volatility has dried up very fast and this means returning back to price movements that we were used to for many months that preceded this high volatile sell off. I say maybe as in Booooring because this is only temporary and I truly believe that the volatility we have set to start off the month of May to be just setting the bar that will be taken out later this year. I say productive because it is holding well above the five day moving average and seems to be showing a break out sign from the one day average. Breaking $35.75 area of resistance and holding above that area for more than four or six hours or breaking past the $36.75 fibonacci area would be enough to confirm the intermedate trend to be bullish. Given how light this movement is and that its only a small retracement from the $49.81 high this gives reason for concern as far as how the paper ponzi market is concerned. Keep stacking!








END OF DAY REPORT

Support was found today at the five day moving average and this was the first test of support since the moving average has rose. I still would like it to see go a little higher to call this a confirmed intermediate bull market and thus its pretty much neutral right now on the short term. Long term the fifty day average which is currently around $39.00 right now is the big level that I need to see it go past for me to give any conviction for the longer term trend. On the super long term this selling that has occurred has been nothing more than a mere correction and for those protecting themselves against the fiat debt notes and dollar collapse then let the fire sale begin. These moves are all paper based moves and as I stated yesterday the prices given from us from the commodity exchanges are told to us by the powers that be and almost everyone complies by this and the price controls have been set for years. I have heard from people in the past that price controls never work out and there is a part of me that agrees with this. I'll be back after 10pm EST with another update.

05.18.2011

WTF? What has just happened as at 10pm EST (7pm pacific) the market went crazy. It trade very unusual for the way any market should trade for about 20 minutes and now it kind of makes me wonder what is going to happen over night. I'll report more on this later on. TO see the chart, look at This on the One Minute time frame




END OF DAY REPORT

Market is holding the fibonacci retracement really well and as I said yesterday on the blog that this will at some point bring fast moves to the upside with not only the short covering for people profit taking this down move but even those whom have shorted at much lower prices (JP Morgan) do have a chance to do it now as its cheaper. Maybe JP Morgan knows in advanced that its going down to $28 or $30 or whatever because of inside info knowledge, but I either way it will happen. Throw in the fact that buyers adding to the pressure the move going to $50 the second time this year should be faster than it was earlier when the spring (north hemisphere) started. Then again I am going to say this now in advanced that all these moves are paper related whether it brings further selling or moves breaking past the $40 haven. Until people do something about it then its the paper market in control and because they tell us what the price is that means we have "price control silver" and are recommended to sell the silver in or around that price and so far dealers have complied.

05.17.2011

SHORT TERM ANALYSIS

The trend line (not drawn in) that connects all the tops is where the market is at right now. Also if you draw a straight line at the 34.00 level and view the descending triangle you will notice that it has had a small pierce below this which could be setting us up for a nice bear trap and thus a fast move into the mid to high thirties. This area still can be setting up as support becoming resistance and the $32 level has not been tested. It came down to $33 this morning and thus it has set us up with a higher low (as of now.) Some people are talking about a new market opening (I think tomorrow) and thus this will now take in effect on the short term time frame. Also there are most likely a good combinations of people whom have shorted the market recently and facing nice profits they are going to have to cover as well as what is remaining from the shorts whom were shorting on the way up and can now unload. At some point a short covering rally will most likely come into play and when you mix it with the current volatility and volume movements this could set up for a nice seizable up day at some point very soon. I wouldn't expect this to occur on Wednesday but rather at some point after this selling pressure comes to an end and this bi polar paper market moves to mania phase.

VOLATILITY

That inverted head & shoulders I was talking about didn't find support at the ten day average and we are starting to see some days much more quiet than we have been used to over the past few weeks. The movements today was only $1.50 or so from the low to high and that is under five percent. That is quite light compared to the mass ten percent days that have been on our doorstep. That doesn't mean we can't have another wave lower before the intermediate trend changes, but it does give me more reason to think that this can start to at least stabilize at worst.

DAILY CHART/Fundamentals

I have liked this short term view of this daily chart because it shows how volatile these times have given us. This is likely the start of (SOMETHING) which will most likely change this world (DOLLAR CRASH?). After all this move from $50 breaking down to $32 as fast as it did would reflect normal market activity in a normal free market. (LOL) Now that we know that it is not a free market and these moves were caused based on the use of electronic financial instruments using fine calculus the market tanked at the start of this month. I don't exactly know how this dollar collapse is going to look on the charts, but the physical metal holders are guaranteed to have the ounces they have. If you buy a silver eagle your value is that of one ounce of silver. Whatever it's worth, it is worth and whatever a piece of paper is worth, well that is what it is wroth. I and many others have been talking for years about this dollar and economic collapse and it was predictable back then and its even more so now. I never planned on talking about the death of fiat money and then not expect it to happen. I expect people to be wondering why it is collapsing so fast and on this day, May 17, 2011 I respond to the future readers that it is not happening so soon as it has been taking its sweet little time. I don't know how many more shots of kimo that fiat currency can take, but its value is hanging on by a thread. Gerald Celente states "current trends form future results" and the current trend of massive debt on a global scale, technology destroying slave labour as well as many people waking up day after day on so many issues is going to create the future result. Revolution seems like a no brainer and that baby has been going on for years and its intensity at some point will really kick in.

05.16.2011

END OF DAY REPORT

ANALYSIS AND MORE COMING AFTER 11PM EST

05.13.2011

END OF DAY REPORT - May 13, 2011 shows an interesting imbalance with the silver and gold prices as gold was down and silver was up. More coming throughout the evening and mostly just charts without commentary. Click on any image to enlarge/save and the short candle has a fifty day average with the five and one on it and the long one does not have the five and has the 20/50 with a running average since the crash.













Blogger is back up and running, however I am not. I'll be back later tonight.

05.11.2011

MARKET CLOSE UPDATE - Price action heading lower as the more longer term trends (the next level after intermediate) are starting to now head between neutral and in some cases bearish. The more long term trend is still in amazing uptrend and the reasons for the dollar collapsing remain the same. You can believe the hype that economic conspiracy nuts talk about with how debt is guaranteed and its effects on society or you can believe the hype that budget deficit will get under control from the other guys. Or you can connect the dots yourself and decide if the dollar is strengthening and if the value of silver is going lower? I am as confident (if not more) of silver breaking $100 into early 2012 and even still this fall because in order to make gains of over 200% in a year you need to have some trigger to do it and the corrective crash is one of them.


As far as this daily chart is concerned, the resistance met today was at the 50 day moving average and now that it is breaking from it make this trend go from neutral to bearish using the 50 as the indicator. That is the next level after the intermediate term frame (which I like the use the 5 day). This is also the second test of the fibonacci support level as well as the VWAP (line in the chart) and the 100 day average (not shown in this chart) and the more often support is tested then the more likely it will be taken out. Call me a conspiracy theorist if you like, but this move might be from TPTB getting all the silver they can at the cheapest prices possible and because they can time the market (because they manipulate it) they can buy what they can at these lower prices. It is a paper driven market and I am personally buying silver because I think silver is going to crash as is the stock market. Not by nominal terms, but by the exchange itself. I can't give a timeline other than soon and when I define soon it would be this decade and most likely much sooner than later.





UPDATE - 1800GMT

Resistance at the five day moving average and the very powerful fiboancci level of $39 was hit and the market has now come back to the 61.8% down target. if this $35.00 level gives in then it seems as if its trouble from here. However, with a bottom here this means that $39 will have a better chance of being resistance. Video scheduled to be uploaded in less than an hour from this post (1855GMT).

05.10.2011

I'm not typing, rather I am going to watch about three or four videos (one per request) and place them on the blog. The first one is mine and have yourself a good day. Talk to you tommorow.













UPDATE 1300PM EST

Paper market is now at a major level of resistance where it has met the Fibonacci retracement of 38.2% as well as the five day moving average as it is holding the one day for support. It's still bullish to go lower but only a small amount. This is why $35.00 area would be a good level because that would make a higher low from the previous $33.00 area. Also, resistance can work as any other regular level and keep on moving within' its current trend. The trend is an extreme reduction in volatility making it a little more volatile than normal from previous days and weeks. Intermediate term it is bearish and starting to get cautious because of the five day average. Super Longterm it is bullish because the move from $50 to $33 is peanuts in that it was only a 16% percent retracement long term (50 high / 4 Low) ^ 0.84 x 4 = 33.38. Using Fibonacci theory as long as you are above 61.8% of the range then its mode would be considered bullish which it is. As long as its above 76.4% then it is very bullish which is still the case. The next level is 85.4% which is $34.58 puts us extremely bullish and for a few moments it was below this level. If this is a top it is natural to bounce back and forth between these levels and very often find major support at the 61.8% mark (50/4)^.382*4 = $10.50. The other level is the (50/4)^.618*4 = $19.05 and its pretty clear that market should have more room to grow to the upside because of how impressive its break was as it found a test there ($19 area) in 2008 and again in 2010. The break has been made a few months ago and very often major resistance will translate to future major support. Of course this would cause a major disconnect in the physical market and Gold and the Dow Jones have both yet to find support at 1,000 since lifting off as well.

05.09.2011

No write up today. Images should be self explanatory and on the hourly chart the one day average is now support and the five and fibonacci level coming soon is resistance. On the daily chart the VWAP and Fibonacci was support and the 50 day is resistance. If I have time later on, i'll make a video. If not, i'll talk to you tomorrow. Click on any image to enlarge/save.

05.06.2011

Click on Any image to enlarge/save







END OF DAY OF REPORT

Who would have thought we would be wondering if the 200 day moving average will be support in the next week or if the $30.00 is going to hold up for us. What a week to say the least and if you are not on a severe yellow alert yet, you should be. People mention the shit hitting the fan scenario and it looks like this might be a piece hitting that fan. 300 million shares traded on SLV in one day is very alarming and the indications are now pointing to those moves I have been talking about for over a year now from 1979 where the up and down moves are wild. If you can get your hands on some, I think you are getting an amazing bargain if we are talking the physical metal. What scares me about lower prices if we break below $25.00 is actually getting the physical metal. On the way up to $25.00 about six months ago it was very easy to get these coins. The volume in real human beings going out and buying bullion is also rising large and not many are selling. Some will be shaken out right now and this is natural and temporary. I often times see delays in metals and just not having a particular kind even available. If the bullion dealers do not short the market, then they run the risk of selling at below cost or holding on to whatever remaining inventory they have. Bullion dealers like APMEX will short the silver market when they buy the metal and when you buy from them they would cover the portion you buy. This means they lock their commission in and direction would not mean anything to them. Therefore when you buy silver from APMEX you would force them to cover a portion of their short position. Regardless of the fact the disconnect would get very serious if it happens and the most likely scenario is the dollar collapse is starting and having money in banks now has higher risk than it did when April ended. Enjoy this ride and have a nice day.

Derek.