Sunday, May 1, 2011

05.01.2011 - Sunday Crash


Oh and the stock market is up on this news also. Interesting that Silver fell around 6pm EST and the stocks rose after 10pm that the news caused the price of silver to head lower on news of Osama dying and of course we have the stocks go higher. This is worse than the "Fat Finger Typo" of 2010 pretty much a year ago to this date. This is Reuters that is telling us this. The news is on Osama Bin Laden dying and with an open mind when researching what happened almost ten years ago shows how the media was behind it and guess what folks, they are doing it again. In my opinion this is going to cause a lot of people to research the 911 story because of the ten year anniversary and the subject being popular again. These are the reasons I get into physical silver is because "the new world order" as they have been labelled can do things like this. Well they added another chapter in this "Once Upon a Time" War on Terrorism story and they wrote a chapter on price action of silver. What is also interesting is how Oil is doing nothing out of the ordinary with its trading and you think its very natural for there the silver market to be the one that takes the hit on Osama dying over Oil. The news article says Oil slides, but if you look at the chart you will see it's doing nothing unusual. In my opinion it has never been easier to call a bluff.

The safest assumption for Monday May 2, 2011 will be that it will be volatile. I will be looking for is the percentage hour moves to surpass the previous ones that were quite volatile. The average before was around one percent moves from top to bottom per hour and this may double to two percent per hour. For many months I have referenced the 1979 and 1980 volatility that was wild for the market in percentile terms. The Hunt Brothers story I do not buy for the reason for the volatility and it was the same reason then as it is today. This is amazing for the bulls whom are looking to buy or holding or waiting for that big gain to come.

Price Action

The market has consolidated the flash crash that lasted twelve minutes. We are closing on the anniversary where the equity markets lost seven percent in around seven seconds. Very short term a hold of the previous low around the $42 area is important, but the bulls are dying this fast. This is the ultimate buying opportunity or that of a dip. It can very easily go lower and if you are buying in segments then you will continue to get deals along the way. There is nothing to give me confidence on this fiat dollar that this kind of action where the market plummets to this degree is insane and pretty much criminal. The low volume tells me something is fishy but the SLV shares will have record volume. I make this prediction hours before their market opens. I could be wrong, but I don't count on it. Many stops are (buy-bye) as SNL has used a skit for in the past and there could be damage being done. Regardless of the fact the market is now bearish on the intermediate term trend. The five day moving average gave in with the fast move selling from a failed break earlier. The $53.00 target for the upside is obviously out the window and that trend line connecting 2010 is out the window once again. The support test was the twenty day moving average and therefore on the somewhat longterm time frame (level greater than intermediate) the five day average I feel is the most important one and it is rising and all sell offs are guilty until proven innocent on this time frame. With the five day moving average declining all rallies are now guilty until proven innocent on the intermediate term. Something has to give and the most likely scenario is that the explosive move happens very soon or its an intermediate top. I would count on intermediate top. For if this is a failed move the market would start the day losing 14% and gain over 50% in a few trading days? I don't think so, but it could happen. Therefore, the bull should not give up and I would expect resistance at the 5 day average and maybe a test of the 50 later this month. Still hard to tell being only a few hours of aftermath. This is the final update of the day and will come back in the morning. Good night.

Link from Marketwatch

What is there to say other than WOW and this isn't going to last, but volatility sure came in very strong and what will not happen is the average volatility to stay at one percent or less it was accustomed to last week in what was a high volatile week. This isn't going to last and the buying opportunities are now becoming very strong. This does put us in an intermediate term bear market now unless we get one heck of a failed crash, and that isn't lucky. The bulls won't give up so fast as they didn't give up this last week. The next update will come your way later tonight on this blog.

1 comment:

  1. Getting really interesting. No manipulation :)