Wednesday, May 25, 2011

05.25.2011








60M CANDLE CHART (Short)


On the video earlier I mentioned that it looked like it could break the resistance trend line level that is shown based on having a half a dozen consecutive hits at his level without any support with the lower end and thats exactly what happened. I drew out a level where resistance could be met if broke that pattern and that has not happened or not yet anyway but what has transpired is the trend line of resistance becoming that of support. That is strong when a resistance uptrend becomes support and it seems the test of $39.00 is in the cards. There maybe some short term corrections with sideways action or a move down all the way down to possibly the five day moving average but it seems likely for this to be the case. The likelihood $39.00 either corrects a decent amount in price or time is very high. The message on the market for the short and intermediate term is bullish. The level after that is bearish or neutral and the more longer term levels haven't been bearish in years and the most long term analysis has had the market bullish since it first reached double digits over a half a decade ago. Therefore the bias overall is more bullish than it is bearish but I do need to see the $39.00 level to have a confirmed break out to be really excited. I said earlier that the next buying levels was either a move at $29-$31 (which didn't happen) or a bullish breakout. The confirmation for the five day is not enough and thus I need a confirmation breakout on the 50 day average. Stay posted to this channel for that update. I did buy a week ago because I was able to get a good price and by waiting for a move to $30.00 would have only saved me maybe $20.00 fiat Canadian notes because I only bought ten ounces. I will not buy again until June and most likely will wait until a move to $27 on the down side or the 50 average confirmation as well as the 50 day high/low confirmation which I have on this page.


DAILY CHART (Short)


Often times I look at charts and see this like a football game or hockey game (competition) and its XXX vs. YYY and in this case its the Fibonacci support, the vwap as well as the 100 day average (not shown) that is the support level versus the 50 day average and the massive amounts of fibonacci that are at the $39.00 area. One is going to win and that will either be the break above or the break below. The break above means this was it for the correction and the bull market will continue. the break below this level will be a larger correction with the $25.00 fibonacci mark coming into play. I think we have seen the bottom, but not sure as this is a manipulated market. It's logical to think that the powers that be could be pricing in the markets lower to not only get as many of us people whom are getting out fiat or riding the bull market to leave their positions but more importantly to acquire more silver at fire sale prices because you have to think the people who run this country know that the dollar is dying also and possibly are planning how they collapse it. I need to see tangible fundamental evidence to get out of my silver position and I don't see any logical reason right now to get out.


15M LINE CHART


The lines on this chart are a bunch a different ones including the 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 day and some vwap(s) levels as well. I don't even really check anymore on this specific chart other then let my computer do the number crunching for me. This chart gives a lot of information for the market direction. It has found support on many different levels and is now facing resistance at two with the red line that is flat (50 day) and the brown line looks like the twenty day average to me and the purple line looks like the VWAP from the start of the year highs. The uptrend line is currently at $56.61 and rising and this is still the level I need to see taken out with confirmation to call this market parabolic. I have been stating this since the fall of 2010 and I still live by it and especially since the $50 hit a month ago was at this line. In the last month the level has went higher by over ten percent.

Dates below show where this trend line was when it ended the month as well as the price
AUGUST - $19.58 (Price $19.35)
SEPTEMBER - $22.08 (Price $21.80)
OCTOBER - $24.88 (Price - $24.72)
NOVEMBER - $27.99 (Price - $28.08)
DECEMBER - $31.73 (Price - $30.87)
JANUARY - $35.58 (Price - $28.02)
FEBRUARY - $39.90 (Price - $33.87)
MARCH - $45.55 (Price - $37.67)
APRIL - $51.07 (Price - $47.98)
MAY - $57.59


DIRECTION FROM THE 50 DAY HIGH/LOW


The blue line (direction from 50 day high) is above the orange and thus the sellers still show to be in control. For me to use this indicator to go long the orange line has to be above the blue one. I also want to see some pattern develop where resistance is met at some level and its an easy clear breakout signal as the last two were. In August it had a resistance level of around 8% and I posted on the blog around $18.70ish as the level to go long. In February it established resistance at 11% or so and it had a nice looking breakout again. I will keep you posted on signals to go long from this indicator and right now its just "wait" for this to play out better. The move where it made new lows in May was the first time this happened ever on this chart which goes back to last years summer and thats impressive. Overall long term this is another indication of the bulls in charge within' this market and the selling we are seeing is a counter trend move.

1 comment:

  1. Well.... that was a SHORT vacation from here !!! :)

    ReplyDelete