Todays rally was met with resistance at the five day moving average and it was its first resistance touch since it has declined. It did find support at the significant fibonacci level and now the short term outlook is very cloudy and neutral. If the five day average is not resistance and a new leg lower than this will bring us a failed move of falling below this five average which should spark a move to the huge $39.00 level as well as the fifty day moving average. If this is resistance however and it makes new legs lower than the next level is the $33.58 area which has been support now on two occasions. The market has also having a head and shoulder pattern (one shoulder) as it might make a lower high on the next move and thus for a right shoulder. The name is irrelevant and the reason why it works well or what the pattern is trying to show is that the support level at $36.50 and it would be devastating if this level gets nullified.
This chart I look at once a week or so and today is one of these days. The trend line which increases 0.6% each trading day that started back during the beginning of this rally is my line used to define parabolic moves. I need to see this level have a confirmed breakout of this level for me to say, "Yup the dollar is on verge of a collapse and we are not much longer!" However, that is not the case now when we are currently trading around $36.50 and the trend line is at $57.94 right now and a sixty percent up move is required just to test this level. A confirmed move means it has ripped through the level with massive gains above it (at least 25%)or to find a breakout signal which is often times breaking the level and find support at the line and then showing breakout signals. Of course this is a long time away, but if and when this happens I will report this to be such the case. For now the range for $33.58 and $39.40 is the big picture and a break below could create fast moves as the volatility is here and I don't think we will stay in this range too much longer and it could be an up break, however the longer we trade sideways the larger the breakouts usually tend to be.
It seems 25% will be the cross level and at 25% this would translate to $41.00 as an approximative area. The overall range has the market stuck between 33 and 39 and the levels are currently in this direction. I would once again point out that it is not normal to go from a time frame where the market makes a new fifty day high and then moments later makes a new fifty day low. That is what has happened and the sellers are in control currently on this manipulated market and if they could manipulate to go down to this level, then they can sure as heck bring it down another leg lower. The support on this chart was found at eight percent and this translates to around $34.75 as important level.