Wednesday, June 8, 2011

06.08.2011









END OF DAY REPORT




Intra day today the move happened as the New York markets were closing up shop and the spike higher resulted in fourteen minutes of time and gained thirty cents on the spot price and not quite one percent. This is all occurring within' a very neutral market priced wise based on the paper game. The paper game told us that only 2.2 million shares were traded in the final thirty minutes which is the lowest in at least two months, but definitely the lowest since Apr 12. This volume that surged todays rally looked huge on the chart (not shown here) as there was only 30,000 volume per minute until the last few moments containing an average of 90,000 in the final few moments. For the day there was 24.8 million total trade which is the lowest volume on SLV since April 8. The high for volume was 295 million on May 5 which was the big candle that has started this long range. The move on that day seen silver lose ten percent on the New York time frame after it had lost over 5% over night. The awareness for this ponzi scheme is growing which is a good thing, because these moves we see are not true market fundamentals for price movements towards commodities. Final point is the ranges that are boring and trade for so long tend to end in a huge break out/down. Today there was a very tight range on the 1m chart that spanned a little over an hour. It ended with a massive breakout. In the spring and summer of 2010 it was the same thing with the $17.50 to $19.50 range that broke out huge to the upside. Over the longer term we have this range from $33 to $39 that is setting up for the potential for a big breakout or breakdown.


HOURLY CHART


The indicator at the top of the screen shows the rate of ascent or decent on the five average. If its below the 0% line then it is declining and if its above the 0% then it is rising. It is currently at 0.0018985%. The move at 3pm to 4pm brought the five day average into positive territory and therefore its literally a rising five day moving average and realistically it is a flat average that is showing much indecision. This could be the time where the market breaks away from the five day average and thus resuming the intermediate bull market and it is very hard to tell right now. What would be ideal would be a move to the upper fibonacci level and then pull back to where previous resistance was found roughly around $36.80 to $37.00. Another ideal way would be for the fibonacci to be little to no resistance and break out towards $38.00 and the find support at the fibonacci line rather than resistance. Again it is difficult to say where we are heading in the short term as we enter day 26 of this boring volatile range.

RATE OF ASCENT/DESCENT on 5 day avg


Two main things I find interesting on this chart. The first is how obvious the selling in May was not to the normal and the only time within' the last year that we have had a move of these grand proportions. In fact this would be close to the moves of 2008 selling which I will try and get out later on for the longer term view of this chart. The other thing that I notice is that there has not been a big up push on this chart. The entire run always seems to show it tops at 0.075% and a couple times it went above 0.1%. With the move lower reaching the proportions of -0.25% then a move to the positive level of 0.25% would mark 20-30% gains in less than one week period. Those days I feel are coming (probably later this year), but definitely not guaranteed. SLV ended the day with a declining five day average where as the actual spot price ended the same time frame of 4pm EST with a rising five day average. The reason for this is because the comex average shown above tracks all time frames and the SLV only for their own and this tells us over the last five days that the market has done worse in USA from 0930 to 1600 New York time compared to the off hours.


Long term rate of ascent


This chart is meant to go in radio waves type format or like energy types of charts by the nature of how the markets move and the way they are calculated. Chart is calculated by taking the average of the High, Low & Close and then taking its rate of increase from week to week levels. This image shows us that this one week selling that occurred six weeks ago was the largest one that this market has endured this decade over a short period of time. The move as of yet has not taken out the intensity of 2008 because sixty percent was taken off the high price and so far only a third or thirty-three percent has been the decline. These moves are not normal to occur and because of the way our banking system is setup this shows me more signs of the currency collapsing as a precursor event. It will probably only take one big spike to the upside that will set us to the next level and maybe two total as the dollar collapses. Finding the when silver will break into higher levels is hard to do, but what isn't hard is to use a chart like this as a gauge for such with it making new highs.

This chart shows the last few years a little bit better and the difference from 2008 was how it was at the -10% area a few times and only once here thus far. Since the 2008 market crashed this is in fact the first time its had a real break below -5% price differential. I used this chart and formula because its the easiest way to see how the rate of ascents/descents would have looked on a long term level and this does a decent job as such.






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