Tuesday, June 28, 2011

06.28.2011

Hello, sorry I haven't been around on this blog for a while, but with the market being in this neutral waiting to form some sort of trend direction or some sort of news worthy event that is worth nothing, then I might as well take it easy on here. The market remains int he range from 33.00 to 39.00 and is at the bottom end of this currently. Fibonacci support of 33.58 has been holding very well, but the resistance has been holding much better showing bearish sentiment on the first move which would either spark selling to most likely below $29.00 to the next major level set at $26.00 or a failed move that will spark most likely an original fast move into the bull market trend. Of course you have more of this time consolidation and if you buy silver now because its cheap this is the time in comparison with previous prices on a simple numbers game. The numbers stated that in 1980 it was $50.00 for a brief moment on three different days and settled above $30.00. I also know that at the end of May it reached $50 again and yet is settling in the same areas. This is time is different, right? In, numbers I think (no). I can make a chart to compare these two time frames and can make it in a few minutes and will later on. Check below on the blog and I am guessing as I type this without looking at it or knowing its details that it has similar trends. What is different is currency values. Products are up substantially from 1980 and more so from the sixties. $50 in 1980 may not even be worth ten today. Therefore the numbers state that we could be at three dollar silver for that same time frame and three bucks was cheap back then.


If you are buying bullion silver and you are wondering if you should buy now with question marks as you scratch your head, you need to ask yourself why you are scratching your head. It could be fear that you will lose this gamble and the charts will never show over thirty again for many years. If that is the case, Really? I mean, Really? It could be because they are scared to liquidate it or sell it. If this is the case then you may need to spend some time and energy in the future to sell your silver. Don't take it to the dealer and get 90% on spot, rather you can network yourself with other people, online classifieds as there is many ways to get great deals. If someone is willing to buy silver eagles or maples for $39 from a dealer who will give you $34 then why not talk to the guy who wants to buy at $39 and offer $37 or $38. Yes, you can't say that at the dealer shop, but walk out with him/her when that person leaves and ask if you want to buy anymore and you should either get your sale or a possible sale in the future. The ones whom use strategies to get the best buys and sells at any time are going to win. It's important if you are going to go out of your way to buy gold/silver bullion that you get the best deal possible Therefore, if you are buying silver now, there should be no worry or concern of selling it right now. That time will come in the future. If your still scratching your head is it because you are tying up to much short term fiat. You don't want to have to liquidate and its not a great feeling when you are forced to liquidate this stuff for regular expenses, but that is why it is a safety net to begin with. However, if its because of the price being very high or wanting another dip then you have to ask yourself if you buy today at thirty-four per ounce and it goes down to twenty-nine would you buy again? If the answer is "yes" because you love the deals, then you buy now if you haven't recently and find the best deal you can. If you say "no" to buying at the lower price for most likely the reason that you won't have anything to buy more with, it might be right to scratch your head. I only know of two good ways to buy positions so that you can be effective at buying low and selling high. One of the ways is to find clear cut breakout signs which I have explained in the direction from the fifty as a good example. If you don't get in on this at the right time, you can very easily become late. Thankfully the super long term charts say we got a long ways to go before that is the case there. Another way to buy is to buy when its down to much. Gauging what is down to much is very hard and requires a lot of skill and hard work. One example is tell yourself. "I will buy when silver reaches $26.00 or very solid technical analysis breakout signs and as of now that is not even close." When this is the case then you stay in the sidelines. If you are a seasonal trader, then you buy on Thursday. Simple as that, you have to buy on Thursday. I'll explain more later this week why this to be the case.




Images can be enlarged by clicking them. The image blow uses a front weighted moving average which puts more emphasize to the earlier periods. For an 18 period average by using a spreadsheet a formula would be needed like this:


Place Date in Column A, Open in B, High in C, Low in D and Close in E

For the Highs, place this in row 18 and put an equals sign to start it


(e18*18+e17*17+e16*16+e15*15+e14*14+e13*13+e12*12+e11*11+e10*10+e9*9+e8*8+e7*7+e6*6+e5*4+e4*3+e3*2+e2)/171
Lows
(d18*18+d17*17+d16*16+d15*15+d14*14+d13*13+d12*12+d11*11+d10*10+d9*9+d8*8+d7*7+d6*6+d5*4+d4*3+d3*2+d2)/171
Closes
(e18*18+e17*17+e16*16+e15*15+e14*14+e13*13+e12*12+e11*11+e10*10+e9*9+e8*8+e7*7+e6*6+e5*4+e4*3+e3*2+e2)/171

The number you divide it from is the sum of the average. For 18, the sum is 171 and the recent one is the highest number, the one level before then would be the second highest number all the way to one. This average may show more accuracy in the long run.





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